法国著名农村社会学家孟德拉斯在其代表作《农民的终结》一书开篇部分便直言不讳地指出："二十亿 农民站在工业文明的入口处，这就是在20世纪下半叶当今世界向社会科学提出的主要问题。" [1] 自改革开放以来，中国城镇化进程持续加快。根据国家统计局发布的最新数据，截至2024年底，全国城 镇常住人口已达到9.435亿人，较前年同期新增1083万人；农村常住人口为4.6478亿人，同比下降1222万 人。当前城镇人口在全国总人口中的占比（城镇化率）已攀升至67%，常住人口城镇化率首次突破三分 之二。[2] 以城镇化赋能未来一个时期中国经济平稳健康发展，已经是重要战略选择，中国的城市化或者新型城市 化可通过加强城乡之间劳动力、土地和资本的流动，继续为经济发展提供新动力。[3] 然而，城镇化在推动城乡要素重新配置的同时，城市强大的虹吸效应也带来了乡村地域空间及其内在社 会经济结构的持续重构与转型。在这一过程中，乡村传统的社会空间架构、区域形态布局被逐步瓦解， 由此还引发乡村社会结构失调、文化根脉断裂、生态系统退化、城乡发展鸿沟扩大等一系列重大现实问 题，[4]城镇化背景下乡村衰落的事实已不容忽视。 费孝通先生将中国社会的根 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the dual challenges and opportunities presented by the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and productivity, advocating for proactive capability building and institutional innovation to address these issues [1] Structural Employment Contradictions - The main contradiction in China's employment has shifted from total and cyclical issues to structural ones, necessitating adjustments in policy concepts, orientations, tools, and practices [1] - The natural unemployment rate in urban areas was estimated at approximately 5.05% before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the actual urban survey unemployment rate has frequently exceeded this level post-pandemic, indicating a higher natural unemployment rate [2] - Both urban unemployment rates and job vacancy rates have increased simultaneously, with the urban survey unemployment rate rising from 5.00% to 5.14% and the job-seeker ratio increasing from 1.04 to 1.37 between 2008-2016 and 2016-2024 [3] - The informalization of urban employment is evident, with private and non-unit employment rising from 53.0% in 2013 to 65.2% in 2023, and approximately 200 million people engaged in flexible employment in 2023 [4] - Labor mobility between urban and rural areas has become increasingly inward, with a slowdown in the transfer of agricultural labor to non-agricultural sectors, negatively impacting productivity [5] Causes of Structural Employment Contradictions - Structural employment contradictions are primarily driven by technological advancements leading to automation, which often results in job displacement [6] - Population factors, particularly aging, have contributed to a shortage of middle-aged workers, leading to increased automation in sectors where they were predominantly employed [7][8] - Institutional barriers, such as the household registration system, hinder effective labor market matching, with a significant proportion of the labor force being non-local residents [8] Addressing Structural Employment Contradictions - To tackle structural employment contradictions, there is a need for enhanced human capital development and a robust social protection system [9] - Emphasis on improving education and skill training to meet the demands of the AI era is crucial, with suggestions for extending compulsory education and establishing a lifelong learning system [9] - The social protection system should be improved to ensure equitable support for workers facing job displacement, with recommendations for increasing benefit levels and expanding public services [10] - Macroeconomic policy tools need to shift focus from aggregate measures to individual and structural aspects, enhancing coordination among government departments to improve labor market outcomes [11]