Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the dual challenges and opportunities presented by the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and productivity, advocating for proactive capability building and institutional innovation to address these issues [1] Structural Employment Contradictions - The main contradiction in China's employment has shifted from total and cyclical issues to structural ones, necessitating adjustments in policy concepts, orientations, tools, and practices [1] - The natural unemployment rate in urban areas was estimated at approximately 5.05% before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the actual urban survey unemployment rate has frequently exceeded this level post-pandemic, indicating a higher natural unemployment rate [2] - Both urban unemployment rates and job vacancy rates have increased simultaneously, with the urban survey unemployment rate rising from 5.00% to 5.14% and the job-seeker ratio increasing from 1.04 to 1.37 between 2008-2016 and 2016-2024 [3] - The informalization of urban employment is evident, with private and non-unit employment rising from 53.0% in 2013 to 65.2% in 2023, and approximately 200 million people engaged in flexible employment in 2023 [4] - Labor mobility between urban and rural areas has become increasingly inward, with a slowdown in the transfer of agricultural labor to non-agricultural sectors, negatively impacting productivity [5] Causes of Structural Employment Contradictions - Structural employment contradictions are primarily driven by technological advancements leading to automation, which often results in job displacement [6] - Population factors, particularly aging, have contributed to a shortage of middle-aged workers, leading to increased automation in sectors where they were predominantly employed [7][8] - Institutional barriers, such as the household registration system, hinder effective labor market matching, with a significant proportion of the labor force being non-local residents [8] Addressing Structural Employment Contradictions - To tackle structural employment contradictions, there is a need for enhanced human capital development and a robust social protection system [9] - Emphasis on improving education and skill training to meet the demands of the AI era is crucial, with suggestions for extending compulsory education and establishing a lifelong learning system [9] - The social protection system should be improved to ensure equitable support for workers facing job displacement, with recommendations for increasing benefit levels and expanding public services [10] - Macroeconomic policy tools need to shift focus from aggregate measures to individual and structural aspects, enhancing coordination among government departments to improve labor market outcomes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) may lead policymakers to reassess the natural rate of unemployment [1] Group 1 - AI advancements could influence labor market dynamics, potentially altering traditional economic indicators [1] - Policymakers may need to consider the impact of AI on job displacement and creation when formulating economic policies [1] - The discussion highlights the evolving relationship between technology and economic metrics, particularly in the context of unemployment [1]