李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 再过一个多月就到2026年了。最近参加各类研讨会较多，至少表明相对于实体经济，会议经济的活跃度有所提升。现我把近 期会议上发表的观点归纳如下，供参考。 绕不开的房地产周期 从2000年到2020年房地产的长周期上行阶段，大家几乎都不相信房价还会下跌。朱宁教授写的那本《刚性泡沫》非常畅销， 当然他当时是看空房地产的。我在2017年的博鳌亚洲论坛上有一个发言，认为我国房地产将在2020年前后见顶。当时这个判 断引起很大争议，因为人性往往受制于"思维定势"，也就是惯性。房价涨的时间长了，就以为一直能涨下去，反之亦然。 两三年前房价下跌初期，不少分析师认为只要销售面积到10亿或者9亿平米就见底了。我当时就提出这个逻辑本身就有问 题，相当于你只通过观察股票交易量来判断是否见底，而不是看估值是否合理来判断。我不喜欢用房价收入比来判断估值水 平是否合理，因为很多城市的居民可支配收入的可信度存疑。用租售比（相当于市盈率的倒数）更清晰明了。国外核心城市 的平均租售比为4.1%，我觉得我国合理的租售比应该是3%左右，与二套房的贷款利率相仿。 目前我国核心城市的平均租售比估计在2%左右，相当于50倍 ...

由于房地产是一个大行业，上下游产业链很长，涉及到从制造业到服务业等几十个行业，2026年我国经济仍将受到房地 产下行的影响，如今年前10月民间投资增速降幅较大，达到-4.5%，即便剔除房地产投资，还是接近于零增长。同时， 房地产下行对银行、信托等金融业也带来明显的负面影响， 好在我国金融机构绝大部分是国企，有各级政府作信用背 书。 要在西方国家发生房地产泡沫破灭时，通常会发生金融机构的破产倒闭事件。 再过一个多月就到2026年了。最近参加各类研讨会较多，至少表明相对于实体经济，会议经济的活跃度有所提升。现我把近期 会议上发表的观点归纳如下，供参考。 绕不开的房地产周期 从2000年到2020年房地产的长周期上行阶段，大家几乎都不相信房价还会下跌。朱宁教授写的那本《刚性泡沫》非常 畅销，当然他当时是看空房地产的。 我在2017年的博鳌亚洲论坛上有一个发言，认为我国房地产将在2020年前后见 顶。 当时这个判断引起很大争议，因为 人性往往受制于"思维定势"，也就是惯性。房价涨的时间长了，就以为一直能 涨下去，反之亦然。 两三年前房价下跌初期，不少分析师认为只要销售面积到10亿或者9亿平米就见底了。我当时就提出这个 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the struggles faced by the post-80s and post-90s generations in the context of the real estate market, emphasizing the disparity between effort and reward in their pursuit of homeownership [1][5][12] Group 1: Societal Expectations and Reality - The younger generations have been raised with the belief that hard work leads to stability and homeownership, following a traditional life path of education, employment, and family formation [3] - Despite their adherence to societal norms, many individuals find themselves in dire situations due to the timing of their real estate purchases, particularly those who bought homes at peak prices [11][12] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The years 2020 to 2022 marked a peak in housing prices, coinciding with a significant number of homebuyers entering the market, leading to a situation where many are now facing financial losses [8][10] - Data indicates that from 2018 to 2021, real estate sales remained high at around 1.7 billion square meters annually, but this figure plummeted to 1.36 billion square meters in 2022 and is projected to drop further to 0.98 billion square meters in 2024 [10] Group 3: Impact on Homebuyers - Approximately 50 million families purchased homes during the peak years, many of whom are now experiencing significant financial strain as property values have declined [10] - The article illustrates the plight of first-time homebuyers who entered the market during the peak, highlighting a specific case of a young individual who, despite following societal expectations, found himself in a precarious financial situation due to market timing [11][12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 for Q3 2025, reflecting a 27% increase year-over-year [4] - Adjusted consolidated revenue grew by 14% [4] - GAAP earnings were $1.84 per diluted share [9] - Investment income increased by 12% to $153 million [10] - The provision for policy losses and other claims remained unchanged at $42 million, representing 3.0% of title premiums and escrow fees [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial revenue surged by 29% to $246 million, with a record average revenue per order exceeding $16,000 [4][9] - Purchase revenue declined by 2%, primarily due to a 5% drop in closed orders [9] - Refinance revenue rose by 28%, although it accounted for only 6% of direct revenue [9] - The agency business generated $799 million in revenue, up 17% from the previous year [10] - Home warranty segment revenue was $115 million, a 3% increase, with a loss ratio improvement to 47% [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial market showed broad-based strength, particularly in the industrial sector, while the residential market faced challenges due to affordability and elevated mortgage rates [6][7] - For October, commercial orders were up 14%, while purchase orders were down 6% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on modernizing its platforms and integrating AI to drive productivity gains and unlock new revenue opportunities [8] - Investments in data, technology, and AI are expected to position the company favorably as the market strengthens [7] - The company is optimistic about capturing growth when purchase volumes normalize [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted the resilience of the business despite challenging market conditions in the residential sector [4] - The company is at the early stages of the next real estate cycle and is well-positioned for future growth [7] - Management expressed optimism regarding the commercial market's momentum and the potential for continued strong performance [17] Other Important Information - The company raised its common stock dividend by 2% to an annual rate of $2.20 per share [14] - Share repurchases totaled 598,000 shares for $34 million at an average price of $56.24 [14] - The debt-to-capital ratio was reported at 33.0%, with a lower ratio of 22.5% when excluding secured financings [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of commercial ARPO - Management indicated that the strong commercial average revenue per order (ARPO) is sustainable and expected to continue building in Q4 [17] Question: Outlook for investment income - Investment income is expected to decline slightly in Q4 due to headwinds from rate cuts [18] Question: Recent trends in refinance orders - The company reported opening about 875 refinance orders per day in early October [19] Question: Update on Endpoint and Sequoia pilots - Both Endpoint and Sequoia are on track, with Endpoint expected to roll out in December and Sequoia testing for purchase transactions planned for Q1 [24][26] Question: Margin impact of Endpoint and Sequoia - Management stated that the margin drag from these programs will no longer be disclosed as they are being integrated into core operations [32] Question: Default and other order count increase - An increase in default activity was noted, but it is not considered material to the business [39] Question: Regulatory updates on title waivers - No new updates were provided since the last quarter, with expectations of a 6.2% rate cut in Texas [72] Question: Investment income outlook for 2026 - Investment income is expected to face headwinds from rate cuts, but operational enhancements may help offset some impacts [75]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is experiencing significant challenges, with both wealthy individuals and ordinary buyers facing difficulties in property sales and asset depreciation. Caution is advised for potential homebuyers as the market is not as favorable as it once was [2][4][6]. Market Overview - Wealthy individuals, including real estate moguls like Wang Jianlin and Wang Sicong, are encountering financial issues, indicating a broader industry downturn. Wang Jianlin faced a court execution for a payment of 186 million, highlighting the severity of the market conditions [4][6]. - Wang Sicong's luxury property in Shanghai, previously valued at over 100 million, has dropped to 60 million with no buyers, reflecting a loss of over 40 million. This trend suggests that if high-end properties are struggling, ordinary homes are likely in an even worse position [6][11]. Historical Price Trends - The peak of the real estate market occurred in 2021, with many cities reaching historical price highs. For instance, average prices in major cities like Shenzhen and Beijing were significantly elevated during this period [8][9]. - From 2021 to September 2023, a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices has been observed, with many homeowners reducing prices by 5% to 10% to attract buyers [11][13]. - As of August 2024, the national second-hand housing prices have been in decline for over 50 months, marking the longest downturn in nearly two decades, surpassing the duration of the 2008 financial crisis [17][19]. Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the real estate sector still requires time to reduce inventory, suggesting that a quick rebound in prices is unlikely [19][21]. - The real estate cycle, known as the Kuznets cycle, typically lasts 15-25 years, indicating that individuals may only experience two complete cycles in their lifetime. The current phase is characterized by a prolonged downturn followed by a potential stabilization period [23][24]. - Historical data shows that after a bubble burst, average price declines can reach around 34%, with some extreme cases exceeding 50%. Current declines in first-tier cities are around 30%, suggesting limited further downside [26][39]. Investment Considerations - For first-time homebuyers, it is recommended to purchase when suitable without overthinking short-term fluctuations. In contrast, investors should be cautious, as 90% of properties may not yield returns and could become liabilities [43][44]. - The era of guaranteed profits in real estate has ended, necessitating a more discerning approach to property purchases based on location, amenities, and personal needs rather than speculation [46].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the intersection of macroeconomic perspectives and the evolution of intelligence, particularly focusing on the transformative potential of AI and its implications for future labor systems and economic cycles [3][4][6]. Group 1: Evolution of Intelligence and Economic Impact - Lars Tvede argues that the development of AI is part of a broader cosmic narrative, suggesting that AI is approaching an "innovator stage" where it may achieve self-management and self-evolution capabilities [3][4]. - The potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity and restructure the global economy is highlighted, with a focus on the transition of capital from traditional real estate to computational infrastructure [6][117]. - Tvede emphasizes the importance of understanding three key factors for future economic analysis: technological evolution paths, innovation clusters, and value capture mechanisms [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and AI's Role - Tvede predicts that inventory cycles may eventually be eliminated due to real-time AI forecasting, while capital expenditure and real estate cycles will persist but with more rapid and intense rhythms [4][91]. - The discussion includes the notion that AI will enhance the accuracy of economic cycle predictions, utilizing real-time data and advanced modeling techniques [97][100]. - Tvede categorizes economic cycles into three types: inventory cycles (approximately 4.5 years), capital expenditure cycles (9-10 years), and real estate cycles (18-20 years), suggesting that AI will make these cycles more efficient and frequent [92][94]. Group 3: Future of Labor and AI Integration - The conversation touches on the future labor landscape, predicting that by 2050, there could be 4.1 billion intelligent robots, which could potentially produce five times the total output of human labor [45][49]. - Tvede notes that the integration of AI and robotics will lead to a complex task economy where many tasks will be executed by non-human entities, fundamentally altering the structure of the global economy [60][61]. - The emergence of "human cloud," "AI cloud," and "robot cloud" is discussed, indicating a shift towards a more flexible and dynamic task execution system [56][59]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Tvede highlights the potential for significant investment in AI infrastructure, including chips and energy systems, which could exceed 1% of GDP in the coming years [124]. - The discussion also points to the possibility of a new commodity cycle emerging as AI and robotics drive down production costs and influence market dynamics [126][130]. - Tvede expresses optimism about the long-term future, suggesting that the current wave of AI technology will lead to substantial positive changes for society [42][44].

Group 1: Real Estate Cycles - Since 2015, China's real estate market has experienced a boom driven by rapid urbanization and synchronized fiscal and monetary policy, with residential average prices and new housing sales down 14.4% and 49.0% from peak levels respectively[3] - The U.S. real estate cycle from 2000 to 2011 saw home prices and new home sales peak at increases of 70.5% and 48.3% respectively, followed by declines of 26.1% and 76.0% during the adjustment phase[3] - Japan's real estate market peaked in Q1 1991 with a cumulative price increase of 47.7% over five years, followed by a decline of 43.3% by Q2 2007[4] Group 2: Debt Cycles and Consumption - The analysis indicates that a higher price-to-income ratio correlates with a longer duration of debt expansion slowdown, negatively impacting consumer spending, especially on discretionary items[2] - In the U.S., the macro leverage ratio peaked at 98.6% in 2007, a 27.9 percentage point increase from 2000, followed by a decline to 77% by 2015, reflecting a significant debt contraction[5] - Japan's consumer spending growth rate dropped significantly during its real estate downturn, with retail growth averaging around -0.5% from 1993 to 2007 due to persistent debt burdens and falling asset values[5] Group 3: International Comparisons - The report highlights a counterintuitive trend where countries with lower price-to-income ratios exhibit higher household leverage ratios, attributed to excessive financial liberalization and personal bankruptcy systems[5] - China's current household leverage ratio stands at 60.0%, showing stability compared to the peaks seen in the U.S. and Japan, suggesting a more resilient debt structure amid real estate adjustments[5] - The report suggests that China's real estate adjustment period may not see a significant decline in household leverage due to the absence of personal bankruptcy laws and a robust urbanization demand base[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is entering a new upward cycle driven by factors such as industry, population, and interest rates, with all real estate companies operating in Hong Kong expected to benefit from this trend [1][3]. Supply Constraints - Supply constraints have always characterized the Hong Kong real estate market, with high population density in developed areas and slow construction of new functional zones [1]. - The average living space per person in Hong Kong is less than 20 square meters, significantly lower than mainland China and other major East Asian cities [1]. - The home ownership rate is relatively low, with nearly half of the population renting, and the market is primarily driven by secondary housing transactions [1]. Historical Market Cycles - Since 1993, the Hong Kong real estate market has experienced five cycles of boom and bust, with population, economic fundamentals, and interest rates being key influencing factors [1][2]. - The upward phases of the market have historically been longer than the downward phases [1]. New Cycle Drivers - The new upward cycle is supported by the robust development of the financial services sector, government policies attracting high-end talent, and a gradual decrease in interest rates expected after May 2025 [3]. - The cumulative net migration of high-purchasing-power individuals has been increasing since the second half of 2022, further supporting demand [3]. - The exit of previous demand-restricting policies has also contributed to the market's positive outlook [3]. Company Performance - A selection of ten large-cap real estate companies in Hong Kong, with moderate leverage and a high proportion of local business, is expected to outperform the market during this upward cycle [4]. - In the initial 12 months of the last upward cycle (from January to December 2009), these companies had an average cumulative return that outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 28 percentage points, with an absolute return of 80.2% [4]. - Even after excluding the first three months, the remaining nine months showed a 12 percentage point outperformance against the market index, with an absolute return of 73.2% [4].

Consumption Trends - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while retail sales of above-limit goods were 6.6%, down 2.0 percentage points[3] - Automobile consumption saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, indicating instability in consumer confidence amid the ongoing real estate cycle[3] - Essential goods and services showed resilience, with food and oil prices rising 14.0% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 3.5% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with real estate development investment down 11.3%, deepening by 1.3 percentage points[4] - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, worsening by 1.9 percentage points, while new construction area dropped 17.8% year-on-year[5] - The construction completion area experienced a significant decline of 25.8% year-on-year, marking the steepest drop since the beginning of the year[5] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth fell to 6.1% year-on-year in April, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with mining industry value-added dropping 3.6 percentage points to 5.7%[6] - Manufacturing value-added decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.6% year-on-year, primarily affected by fluctuations in investment and consumer demand[6] - The second wave of export growth began, with electrical machinery and equipment, and computer communication equipment increasing by 13.4% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively[6] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for April indicates a simultaneous cooling in consumption and investment, primarily driven by the real estate cycle's downturn affecting domestic demand[6] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, aim to stabilize the real estate market and consumer confidence[6] - There is a possibility of further interest rate cuts in June to enhance support for the real estate market and consumer spending[6]