宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 17 日 中美日房地产周期与居民债务周期比较 ——大国博弈经济学框架之一 投资要点： 分析框架：房地产周期对居民债务周期和消费动能的决定性影响。房 价收入比越高，意味着居民偿债能力冗余越薄，对房价上涨的依赖度越高， 这可能导致房地产下行阶段居民债务扩张减速周期拉长，从而可能对居民 消费特别是可选商品消费动能造成削弱。 宏 观 专 题 2015 年以来中国的房地产周期：受城镇化高速推进过程中财政货币政 策同步宽松的刺激，我国房地产市场自 2015 年起至 2021 年走出一波价量 快速上行的繁荣期。2021 年下半年，人口老龄化加速、货币化棚改政策退 出、房地产政策收紧等一系列因素共同影响下，房地产市场见顶开始回落， 下探趋势延续至今已 4 年，住宅均价、新建住宅销售面积分别较峰值水平 下滑 14.4%、49.0%。 2000-2011 年美国剧烈的房地产周期：21 世纪初美联储的一轮大幅宽 松、以及 MBS 等金融自由化进程的迅速蔓延，令美国房地产市场在 2000 年中至 2006 年期间迅速走向泡沫化的"非理性繁荣"。这一轮美国房地产 市场峰值时房价和新屋销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is entering a new upward cycle driven by factors such as industry, population, and interest rates, with all real estate companies operating in Hong Kong expected to benefit from this trend [1][3]. Supply Constraints - Supply constraints have always characterized the Hong Kong real estate market, with high population density in developed areas and slow construction of new functional zones [1]. - The average living space per person in Hong Kong is less than 20 square meters, significantly lower than mainland China and other major East Asian cities [1]. - The home ownership rate is relatively low, with nearly half of the population renting, and the market is primarily driven by secondary housing transactions [1]. Historical Market Cycles - Since 1993, the Hong Kong real estate market has experienced five cycles of boom and bust, with population, economic fundamentals, and interest rates being key influencing factors [1][2]. - The upward phases of the market have historically been longer than the downward phases [1]. New Cycle Drivers - The new upward cycle is supported by the robust development of the financial services sector, government policies attracting high-end talent, and a gradual decrease in interest rates expected after May 2025 [3]. - The cumulative net migration of high-purchasing-power individuals has been increasing since the second half of 2022, further supporting demand [3]. - The exit of previous demand-restricting policies has also contributed to the market's positive outlook [3]. Company Performance - A selection of ten large-cap real estate companies in Hong Kong, with moderate leverage and a high proportion of local business, is expected to outperform the market during this upward cycle [4]. - In the initial 12 months of the last upward cycle (from January to December 2009), these companies had an average cumulative return that outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 28 percentage points, with an absolute return of 80.2% [4]. - Even after excluding the first three months, the remaining nine months showed a 12 percentage point outperformance against the market index, with an absolute return of 73.2% [4].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 地产探底对内需拖累加深 ——经济数据点评（25.4） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速高位回落，补贴效果分化，汽车石油下滑。4 月社会消费品 零售总额、限额以上商品零售同比分别为 5.1%、6.6%，分别较前月的阶段 性高点回落 0.8、2.0 个百分点。主要拖累来自汽车，同比增速下滑 4.8 个 百分点至 0.7%，与金融数据中居民贷款再度降温相一致，显示房地产周期 未出现明确拐点之前，居民汽车消费回升态势尚不稳固。而同样受补贴刺 激的家电音像、通讯器材，4 月零售同比分别达到 38.8%和 19.9%，均处于 一年多以来较高增长区间，补贴效果持续显现。必需品、服务持续呈现较 强韧性和较小弹性，粮油食品同比 14.0%较前月再度小幅上行 0.2 个百分 点，餐饮收入同比 5.2%，尽管较前月小幅回落 0.4 个百分点但仍处于近一 年较高增速区间。 固定投资增速下滑，房地产探底有所加快，制造业基建高位波动。4 月固定资产投资同比 3.5%，较前月回落达 0.8 个百分点，三大主要行业同 步走弱，增长中枢进一步分化。单月房地产开发投资同比-11.3%，跌幅再 度加深 1.3 个百分 ...