孙少睡 楼市成交量会在这个时间点后提升 最近外资的一些研报有点嘲讽的意味。瑞银的报告说我们的房价至少再跌两年。 报告里有个细节，说现在的买房人越来越专业，开始大量出现投资名词，更看重实际能获取的利益。 其实也正常，这样一个楼市环境，只有更专业的人才能稳住身形。 过去买房主要靠概念，看规划，听故事。什么这里要做世界级的文旅城啦，那里要规划某某国际部啦之 类的。 买房人都信。不过也正是因为都信，才搞得恒大之流最后留下了这么多问题。 这种事情多了，买房人也只能让自己越来越聪明，越来越专业。 用瑞银的话说，就是买房人的预期从"短期企稳"转向了"长期调整共识"。 翻译成大白话就是，市场不再幻想楼市再度起飞，房价还会继续下行很长一段时间的共识基本形成。 这种共识形成之后，反而会让楼市成交再度有一些起色。其实并不会影响大家买房。 因为预期变了，大家反而安心。下跌确定性带来的成交量是优于信心缺失的。 因为确定性摆在这里，能接受下跌的人就会买，不能接受下跌的人就不买。 瑞银的数据是，现在一线城市的平均租售比只有1.8%，而按揭利率平均是3.1%。 说明房子的租金甚至不够房屋利息。要想让租金和月供持平，首付得至少付到60%。 而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market showed initial signs of recovery in early 2025, but the momentum quickly faded, leading to a significant decline in transaction volumes and an increase in listings, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - In March 2025, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 21,300 units, surpassing the critical threshold of 20,000 units, but over 60% of these transactions involved sellers reducing prices by more than 15% or properties priced between 3 million to 5 million [1]. - By April 2025, transaction volumes dropped to 18,100 units, and further declined to 17,500 units in May, stabilizing around 16,000 units during the summer [2]. - As of early August 2025, the number of second-hand listings in Shanghai exceeded 200,000, a significant increase from less than 100,000 two years prior [3][4]. Price Trends - The average transaction period for second-hand homes extended from 180 days last year to 245 days this year, indicating a growing fear among sellers regarding the time it takes to sell properties [4]. - The average negotiation space for second-hand homes increased from 5.2% to 9.8%, yet buyers remain hesitant to make purchases [6]. - In the second quarter, housing prices outside the inner ring fell by 2.1%, while prices within the inner ring decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a downward trend in property values [6]. Luxury Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market decline, luxury properties priced above 30 million yuan saw a slight increase in transactions by 5% in the first half of 2025, indicating that high-end real estate remains a stable investment [4]. - Notable price reductions were observed in luxury properties, with some listings experiencing significant markdowns, such as a property that sold for 61 million yuan after being listed at 120 million yuan [4]. Rental Market Insights - The average rental price in Shanghai fell by 4.5% year-on-year in July 2025, with some long-term rental apartments offering incentives such as two months free rent for a one-year lease [7]. - The rental yield of 1.8% is not competitive compared to government bonds, raising questions about the viability of investing in rental properties [8].

Core Insights - Chengdu's real estate market has achieved the highest residential transaction volume in China for the first half of 2025, with a total of 17.6 million units sold, marking 12 consecutive years of leading the national market [1][2][8] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chengdu's new residential sales reached approximately 53,000 units, with an average price of 19,630 yuan/m² and an average total price of 2.58 million yuan per unit [2] - The second-hand residential market saw 123,000 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with a total area of 1.186 million m² sold, reflecting a 19.3% increase [9] Price Trends - The average price of new homes in the Jinjiang District surged by 21.7% year-on-year, reaching 39,899 yuan/m², while the average total price increased by 248,000 yuan to 7.654 million yuan [2] - The average land price for residential land transactions in Chengdu rose significantly, with the average price in the "5+2" area reaching 19,459 yuan/m², a 10.6% increase year-on-year [6] Market Dynamics - The supply of new residential properties decreased by 23% year-on-year, while the transaction area increased by 7.5%, indicating a tightening market [2] - The top 30 real estate companies in Chengdu reported a total sales volume of 993.8 billion yuan, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market [7] Buyer Preferences - There is a notable trend among buyers towards larger homes at lower prices, with 70% of second-hand transactions involving properties under 150 million yuan [9] - The demographic of homebuyers is shifting younger, with over 70% of buyers being from the post-80s and post-90s generations [9]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the real estate transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showed improvements compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Beijing's new residential sales reached 3,917 units, a month-on-month increase of 14.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.52% [1] - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions totaled 21,400 units, with a year-on-year increase of 15% despite a month-on-month decline of 8.6% [1] - Shenzhen's new residential sales were 3,162 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of over 14% but a year-on-year increase [1] - Guangzhou's commodity residential sales reached 6,317 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 28% and a year-on-year increase of 22% [2] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou saw significant growth, with 9,228 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.73% [2] - The overall trend in Guangzhou indicates a continuous year-on-year increase in commodity residential sales since October of the previous year [2] - The data for the first five months of 2025 shows that Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions increased by 17.82% in volume and 18.5% in area compared to the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Tourism in Guangdong and Macau - Guangdong received 46.08 million tourists during the "May Day" holiday, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, generating tourism revenue of 29.5 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [1] - Macau recorded approximately 850,000 inbound travelers during the same holiday period, a 40.7% increase compared to the previous year, with an average daily visitor count exceeding 170,000, surpassing 2019 levels [6] Group 2: Real Estate Market in Hong Kong - In April, Hong Kong's property transactions totaled 7,229 contracts, a month-on-month increase of 8.5%, but a year-on-year decline of 26.8%; the total value of contracts was 50.1 billion HKD, up 9.8% month-on-month, down 40.3% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Sports Achievement in Shenzhen - Zhao Xintong from Shenzhen became the first Chinese and Asian player to win the Snooker World Championship, marking a significant milestone in Chinese snooker history [4]