Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant improvement in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates in China, attributing this to the return of cross-border funds rather than traditional economic factors [3][10][39]. Group 1: Economic Context - M1 and M2 have maintained a high growth rate, with the M2-M1 spread continuing to narrow [3]. - Many institutions struggle to understand the substantial improvement in M1 and M2 due to their traditional economic perspectives [6][8][9]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - China is characterized as an open economy, allowing for significant cross-border capital flows, which can lead to misunderstandings about domestic monetary conditions [11][12]. - The article explains that when interest rates are lowered in China while they are raised in the U.S., it can lead to capital outflows, impacting M1 and M2 negatively [16][19]. Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The movement of deposits between banks in China and the U.S. is illustrated, showing how a decrease in Chinese interest rates can lead to a contraction in domestic bank balance sheets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the recent return of funds to China is linked to uncertainties created by U.S. policies and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [35][36]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The return of funds is expected to positively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets, which have been under pressure due to real estate risks [52][54]. - The article suggests that the current market dynamics indicate that the return of capital will continue, potentially leading to significant market recoveries [55][58]. Group 5: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The article notes that the core CPI is gradually rising, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics as capital returns to China [61][64]. - Traditional financial data may not accurately reflect the current economic conditions due to the unique nature of the capital flows [66].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. real estate crisis has significantly impacted even the previously resilient new home market, with a notable decline in prices across major metropolitan areas [3]. Group 1: Price Decline - Approximately one-third of the U.S. real estate market has experienced year-over-year price declines, with new homes now seeing widespread price reductions [3]. - As of Q2 2025, the median listing price for new homes in the U.S. was $450,000, down over 12% from $512,200 in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The primary reason for the price drop is a surge in inventory levels across various regions [3]. Group 2: Cities with Significant Price Drops - The five cities with the most significant year-over-year price declines for new homes are: 1. Little Rock, Arkansas: -15.6% 2. Austin, Texas: -8.5% 3. Wichita, Kansas: -7.9% 4. Jacksonville, Florida: -7.8% 5. Cape Coral, Florida: -7.4% [4]. - Austin has been identified as the epicenter of the new home market collapse [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - During the pandemic, cities like Austin and Miami saw a surge in new home development due to an influx of remote workers, but demand has since plummeted, leading to excess inventory [5]. - The initial appeal of these markets has diminished due to rising costs and reduced attractiveness, resulting in fewer new residents [6]. - In Miami, high insurance and property management fees have deterred potential buyers [7]. Group 4: Seller Strategies - To stimulate sales, sellers are offering incentives such as covering closing costs, providing renovation subsidies, lowering mortgage rates, and even paying for property management fees [8]. - In Q1 2025, 44.4% of home transactions in the U.S. included "concessions," indicating seller anxiety and a shift towards a more balanced market, particularly in the South and West [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict is described as a "struggle," with a call for emergency plans to assist affected businesses and accelerate policy easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need for Beijing to adopt bolder actions to address unprecedented challenges, including cleaning up the real estate sector and reforming the pension system to support consumption sustainably [5] - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and prices, particularly in light of the significant tariffs imposed by the US [9] Summary by Sections Economic Policy Measures - The report urges the implementation of "more proactive macroeconomic policies" and emphasizes the need to accelerate policy execution [6] - It suggests that the government should expedite the use of special bonds issued by local and central governments [6] - The report maintains predictions for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 15 basis point interest rate cut in the second quarter, with similar actions expected in the fourth quarter [6] Support for Affected Industries - New structural monetary policy tools and financial instruments will be introduced to support technological development, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [8] - A new relending plan will be launched to promote service consumption and elderly care services [8] - The leadership has committed to increasing the unemployment insurance fund's return ratio to support employment stability for businesses severely impacted by tariffs [8] Agricultural and Labor Market Stability - The report stresses the need to enhance domestic agricultural production to stabilize prices of essential goods, especially in light of the US's high tariffs on Chinese imports [9] - It highlights the challenges posed by the low substitutability of certain US-imported agricultural products and the time required for domestic production adjustments [9] - The report underscores the importance of providing multifaceted support to struggling enterprises, including improving financing channels [10]

来源：极速财讯 3·市场信心双重受挫：纳斯达克指数较峰值回落12%，VIX恐慌指数持续高于20警戒线，显示投资者对特朗普激进政策的适应性焦虑。 美国财政部审计风暴持续升级之际，有着"华尔街老兵"之称的资深分析师、前贝莱德高管埃德·道得(Ed Dowd)今日发布了《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》 报告的更新版，直指拜登政府任内通过非法资金注入维持的"虚假繁荣"即将破灭。随着马斯克领导的政府效率部(DOGE)持续揭露财政腐败，高达1150亿美 元的欺诈资金浮出水面，美国经济或面临"短暂但深度的"衰退冲击。 随着政府缩减规模，非法外国人资金被削减，非法移民继续自行离开或者被遣返，道得分析认为，当前美国经济犹如"建立在流沙上的城堡"： 1·虚假繁荣机制瓦解：解决非法移民问题带来的住房租赁需求锐减，可能触发类似2008-2009年的房地产危机，目前全美房价收入比已远远超出合理阈值； 2·消费信心断崖下跌：约1500万非法移民及600万NGO从业人员，会因政策转向担心他们的收入来源，从而产生恐慌性消费收缩； 此前，道得在2月发布的上一版本《2025年全球深度衰退的危险》中提到，"我们预测2025年将出现经济衰退。全球其他 ...