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曹德旺预言要成真?若不出意外,2026年房地产或将面临5大转折
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 06:39
十年前楼市疯狂时,曹德旺直言"房子只是钢筋水泥,二三十层的高层住宅将来会成生活负担",还质 问"有钱人多套房,没钱人买不起,炒房的最后怎么卖出去"。 当时没人信,全民都在追涨买房。 国家统计局数据显示,2025年前11个月,全国二手房交易面积占总交易面积的比重已经达到45%,深 圳、上海这些核心城市的二手房成交量,同比涨幅更是高达20%-30%。 这意味着什么?简单说就是买二手房的人越来越多,新房市场彻底降温。 开发商也学聪明了,不再盲目拿地建房,2025年全国300城住宅用地成交面积同比降了13.7%,出让金 也跌了10.7%,2026年新开工面积预计还会再降8.6%。 可2026年的房地产市场,已经彻底告别"买涨不买跌"的疯狂,转向普通人看不懂的深层变革。 市场反转 过去买房靠抢,新房一开盘就售罄的场景,2026年的市场早就不是"增量扩张",而是"存量提质"的天 下。 2026年新建商品房销售面积还会继续降,中指研究院测算,同比降幅可能达到6.2%。 全国住房城乡建设工作会议已经明确,2026年要系统推进好房子建设,楼市彻底从"住有所居"转向"住 有优居"。 全国城镇空置房数量超过1.2亿套,足够3.6亿 ...
扬州首发!地产国企以“标准体系”回应“好房子”国家战略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 11:55
专家建言 中国房地产业协会副会长、上海易居房地产研究院院长、克而瑞集团董事长丁祖昱在《当前住宅市场和产品趋势研判》主题演讲中,为"好房子"时代命题 提供了基于数据的洞察。他表示,当前市场已呈现"止跌回稳"态势,品质提升空间意味着"好房子"大有可为。生活体验层面,入户、收纳、景观、会所等 需向创新化、体系化、高辨识度进阶;软性服务上,科技体系、有感化物业及活力社群将成为构建竞争力的关键。扬州市房地产协会会长徐志文说,扬州 的人居建设肩负双重使命:既要对接"安全、舒适、绿色、智慧"的普遍标准,更要深植本土,传承文脉、彰显特色。华建地产发布的"好房子标准体系", 正是这样一份"扬州实践方案"。该体系不仅系统响应了行业前沿趋势,更为本土房企如何平衡"国标"与"地情"、打造具有自身特点的好房子,探索出了一 条具有公共价值的解题思路。 记者采访了解到,"华建地产好房子标准体系"以对人的深度洞察为原点,围绕"我与家人、我与邻居、我与城市"三层社会关系,确立了"好设计、好营 造、好服务"三大支柱。其中,"好设计"聚焦空间平权与社区社交,通过10项准则、71处要点落实理念;"好营造"依托12项建筑标准与64重管控措施,系 统管 ...
大湾区“好房子”启新篇,九城联动共推人居环境“品质革命”
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-11-28 10:00
Core Insights - The "Good Housing" initiative in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is transitioning from "housing for all" to "quality housing" [1] - The 2025 Greater Bay Area "Good Housing" exchange conference was held in Zhongshan, focusing on quality living environments and collaborative efforts among nine cities [1][4] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference theme was "Towards Quality Living, Building a Vibrant Bay Area," showcasing differentiated explorations and common achievements in "Good Housing" construction across cities [1] - Various stakeholders, including government, enterprises, and academia, participated in discussions on enhancing living quality in the Greater Bay Area [1][4] Group 2: Regional Development and Initiatives - Zhongshan's geographical advantages were highlighted, with improved connectivity to Shenzhen and other cities through new transportation projects [6] - The city has introduced a comprehensive evaluation system for housing, setting new standards for "Good Housing" construction with 18 indicators exceeding national standards [6] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - The real estate industry is shifting focus from rapid expansion to quality enhancement, with significant demand for improved housing in Guangdong [6][9] - Experts emphasized the need for local IP development in "Good Housing" to meet real residential needs and enhance community engagement [10] Group 4: Research and Findings - A report on "Good Housing" development was released, identifying key variables affecting housing quality and presenting successful case studies from the region [11][12] - The conference also launched a "Good Housing" map to assist residents in finding quality housing options [12][14] Group 5: Future Directions - The conference underscored the importance of integrating local resources and cultural heritage into housing projects to create distinctive communities [10] - The anticipated completion of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link in 2024 is expected to significantly boost cross-city housing demand in the Greater Bay Area [14]
发展向前 民生向暖|努力实现“住有优居”
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-11-25 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in the real estate sector as a means to improve people's livelihoods and support economic growth, highlighting the shift from a shortage of housing to a balanced supply-demand structure [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has laid a solid foundation for high-quality real estate development by achieving approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential sales and constructing over 11 million units of affordable housing, benefiting more than 30 million people [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the real estate development model by improving foundational systems related to property development, financing, and sales, ensuring a clear accountability structure and effective regulation [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Optimization - The article identifies the need to optimize housing supply, particularly affordable housing, to address the challenges faced by urban workers and young people, while also recognizing the growing demand for improved living conditions [2]. - Cities are encouraged to utilize their regulatory autonomy to implement precise and scientific policies that cater to both basic and upgraded housing needs [2]. Group 3: Quality Enhancement - The focus on building safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes is crucial for achieving the goal of "better living conditions" for residents, with new national standards accelerating the implementation of quality housing [2]. - The competition in the real estate market is expected to shift from scale and speed to product quality, technological capability, and service excellence over the next five years [2].
租购并举深化,政策驱动租房市场迈向"住有优居"
Core Viewpoint - The housing rental market is entering a traditional off-season, with a slight month-on-month decline in overall listed rental prices as new rental demand weakens [2][3]. Market Trends - The user base for rental housing has gradually surpassed that of new housing in online search scenarios, highlighting the increasing appeal of renting due to its low entry barriers, high flexibility, and cost-effectiveness [2]. - In October, the online rental demand in 40 cities decreased by 14% month-on-month, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing declines of over 8%, and second-tier cities like Tianjin and Taiyuan experiencing drops exceeding 25% [3]. Rental Price Dynamics - The average monthly rent in 50 key cities was 34.57 yuan per square meter in October, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%, with a cumulative decline of 2.45% over the first ten months of the year [3]. - The decline in rental prices is attributed to an increase in rental supply and the introduction of affordable rental housing, which typically has lower rents than market rates, thereby exerting downward pressure on overall rental prices [4]. Policy Impact - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations is expected to provide new momentum for the standardized development of the rental market, promoting the establishment of a dual rental and purchase housing system [3][5]. - The regulations aim to clarify responsibilities, enhance market supervision, and create a stable rental relationship, laying a legal foundation for the long-term healthy development of the rental market [6]. Future Outlook - The rental market is anticipated to enter a phase of "high-quality development" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on nurturing market-oriented and professional rental enterprises [9]. - The ongoing policy support is expected to enhance the quality of rental products and services, thereby promoting high-quality development in the housing rental market [8][9].
中金 | 深度布局“十五五”:房地产篇
中金点睛· 2025-11-15 00:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term institutional reforms needed to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on a multi-level housing supply system and the need for policy adjustments to stabilize the market and ensure housing security [2][10][14]. Group 1: Multi-level Housing Supply System - The construction of a multi-level housing supply system emphasizes the need for both affordable housing and improved housing options, particularly in first and second-tier cities where housing affordability is a concern [2]. - Affordable housing supply should focus on areas with weaker payment capabilities, while improved housing policies should enhance living standards beyond mere square footage, incorporating safety, comfort, and sustainability [3][10]. - The shift towards a "good housing" concept aims to elevate housing standards across the entire supply chain, which may lead to structural market fluctuations in the short term [3][10]. Group 2: Adjusting Purchase Restrictions - The article highlights the need for localized adjustments to housing purchase restrictions to avoid market distortions while managing market temperatures [6][10]. - Following a period of rising sales and prices, the market is now in a downturn, prompting many cities to lift purchase restrictions and implement housing subsidies, which may have limited immediate effects but contribute to long-term market stabilization [6][10]. - As the market potentially enters an upturn, selective demand restrictions may be necessary in core cities, while most cities should focus on increasing supply rather than limiting demand [6][10]. Group 3: Improving Development and Financing Systems - The article stresses the importance of enhancing the foundational systems for real estate development, financing, and sales to prevent high-leverage operations and ensure project completion [10][14]. - Long-term solutions should include better financial support for healthier equity-debt ratios, improved regulation of pre-sale funds, and mechanisms to encourage a certain proportion of sales to be in existing homes [10][14]. - The establishment of specialized institutions for systematic restructuring of distressed real estate firms is suggested as a means to mitigate credit risks and stabilize market expectations [14][16]. Group 4: Housing Renovation Mechanisms - The article proposes the creation of a sustainable housing renovation mechanism to address the aging housing stock, moving away from large-scale demolition towards more balanced urban renewal strategies [16][17]. - The concept of a housing pension system is introduced to fund ongoing maintenance and upgrades, ensuring that urban renewal can be sustained without excessive reliance on government funding [16][17]. - Pilot programs for housing pensions have been initiated in major cities, aiming to create a framework for managing housing safety and maintenance costs effectively [16][17].
如何从住有所居到住有优居?看三城三人的安居故事
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-11-08 16:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts and developments in China's housing sector, particularly focusing on the transition from merely providing housing to enhancing the quality of living environments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Group 1: Housing Development and Quality Improvement - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing were constructed [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, aiming to upgrade the concept of "having a place to live" to "having a quality place to live" [1]. - The article highlights the importance of affordable rental housing projects in cities like Shanghai, where 395,000 units have been supplied, aiming to provide stability for transient populations [7]. Group 2: Case Studies of Residents - The story of Gan Youzhou, a delivery worker in Shanghai, illustrates the journey from temporary housing to a stable living situation, emphasizing the role of affordable rental housing in improving living conditions [3][5]. - In Guangzhou, the renovation of an old residential building into modern apartments showcases the city's efforts in urban renewal and improving living standards for long-term residents [8][12]. - The experience of Gao Yabin in Beijing reflects the changes in housing design and quality over the past decade, highlighting the shift towards more spacious and user-friendly living environments [14][16]. Group 3: Future Directions and Expert Insights - Experts suggest that the focus of urban development is shifting from rapid expansion to enhancing existing housing quality, with a call for a dual housing supply system that includes both rental and market options [18]. - The need for a comprehensive approach to housing that includes both affordability and quality is emphasized, with expectations for improved living conditions during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20].
定义“好房子”新范式 华润置地“三好”体系背后的居住变革
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-11-08 05:39
Core Viewpoint - The "Good House" concept promoted by China Resources Land is gaining significant market attention, as evidenced by the enthusiastic visitor turnout at the "Good House Technology Exhibition" [2][3] Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The "Good House Technology Exhibition" showcased the "Good Maintenance Exhibition Area" and two model apartments that embody the "Good House" philosophy, illustrating a complete ecological loop from "Good House" to "Good District" [2] - The exhibition aims to drive the real estate and construction industries towards high quality, new technology, and better services [2][3] Group 2: Housing Solutions - The "Nest" affordable rental housing model targets new citizens and young people, offering small, low-rent units designed for efficient living [3] - The "All-Cycle Renewal Technology House" model caters to urban middle-class families, adopting a service logic similar to the automotive industry to create a comprehensive product and service system [3][4] Group 3: Technological Integration - The "Good Maintenance" exhibition area emphasizes a complete system from home services to community responses, showcasing a "smart community operation" platform that integrates AI and IoT technologies [5] - The integration of smart home systems with property management allows for proactive responses to issues like water leaks or gas alarms [5][6] Group 4: Business Model and Strategy - China Resources Land operates under a "3+1" integrated business model, combining development, operational real estate, asset management, and ecosystem elements to create a living ecosystem of "Good Products, Good Communities, Good Services" [6][7] - The company focuses on enhancing customer experience through a unified service platform that connects nearly 80 million customers across various touchpoints [6] Group 5: Community and Urban Development - The company emphasizes the importance of community as a basic unit of urban life, innovating in community services to create a 15-minute living circle [8] - The "Run Neighbor" community brand has expanded to cover 118 cities, engaging over 300,000 homeowners and fostering community spirit through various initiatives [8][9] Group 6: Vision for the Future - China Resources Land is transitioning from being a "space maker" to a "life creator" and "city builder," aiming to define the future of "Good Houses" and contribute to sustainable urban development in China [9]
十大展区亮相首钢园!好房子科技展解码未来家园
Core Viewpoint - The "Good House Technology Exhibition" held in Beijing showcases the integration of technology in housing, emphasizing the characteristics of a "good house" through practical demonstrations and innovative designs [1][2]. Group 1: Definition of a Good House - A good house is defined by safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, with 18 model rooms presented for public experience [2]. - Innovative designs, such as adaptable spaces in model apartments, allow homes to evolve with family needs over time [2]. - Health considerations are integrated into housing design, featuring eco-friendly materials and advanced plumbing systems to ensure a healthy living environment [2]. Group 2: Construction Standards and Innovations - The exhibition highlights national standards for residential projects, including key indicators like 3-meter ceiling heights and elevator installations in buildings with four or more floors [4][5]. - An interactive voting section allows visitors to express their preferences on construction features, indicating a strong public interest in sound insulation and accessibility [5]. - The "Good Construction" area illustrates the construction process, promoting the concept of industrialized building akin to automobile manufacturing [5][7]. Group 3: Smart Technology in Housing - The exhibition features advanced construction technologies, such as remote-controlled tower cranes, enhancing safety and efficiency on construction sites [7][8]. - Smart home appliances and service robots are showcased, indicating a shift towards more automated and convenient living environments [8][9]. - The event serves as a preview of future living scenarios, demonstrating how technology is deeply integrated into both construction and daily life [11].
解码山东城市工作会|好房子并不是贵房子,山东全面提升居住品质
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-09-19 06:09
Group 1 - The core focus of Shandong's urban development is to transition from "housing for all" to "quality housing" to meet the growing needs of the people [1][3] - The Shandong provincial government has announced the third batch of high-quality residential pilot projects, totaling 102 projects, bringing the total to 213 [3] - Shandong emphasizes that good housing does not necessarily mean large or expensive houses, and aims to improve existing old houses to meet current standards [3] Group 2 - The province has implemented significant housing projects, with 8 million people moving from shantytowns to new buildings and 23,000 communities undergoing renovations [3] - Shandong has constructed 34.05 million square meters of high-quality residential space and developed 12,000 kilometers of urban greenways, with an average park green space of 18.7 square meters per person, ranking among the top in the country [3] - The province is exploring diverse housing solutions, including senior housing in aging areas and student housing in younger cities, while also promoting the renovation of old communities [3]