Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for January 2026 was 11.887 billion, a decrease of 4% month-on-month. The main board raised 4.279 billion, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 5.603 billion [4][5]. - A total of 13 new stocks were issued in January, representing an 8% increase month-on-month, with 3 from the main board and 4 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5]. - As of the end of January, there were 59 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across all A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 45.36 billion. The main board accounted for 32% of the proposed fundraising [11]. Group 2 - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of [2,3) and [5,10) billion for the main board, while the ChiNext had limits mostly in the [1,2) billion range [12]. - In January, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1,181 and 534, respectively, with a month-on-month decrease of 47% for the main board [16]. - The average winning rate for new stocks in January was 0.0068% for A-class accounts and 0.0054% for B-class accounts on the main board, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5% and 19% respectively [18]. Group 3 - The average first-day price increase for new stocks on the main board in January was 41% (3 stocks), while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw an average increase of 76% (4 stocks) [23]. - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 1-2 billion range seeing a contribution of +0.123% and those in the 2-3 billion range seeing +0.082%, with an annualized return of 0.318% for 8 billion scale funds [28]. - In January 2026, a total of 3,449 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 7.5 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1,291 funds participating [29].

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The core policy proposition of Walsh is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, attributing it to prolonged quantitative easing (QE) post-crisis, and advocating for quantitative tightening (QT) to control inflation [6] - Walsh criticizes the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet, arguing that QE distorts market incentives and leads to a decline in banks' willingness to lend to the real economy, thus promoting a transition from a "sufficient reserves" mechanism to a "scarce reserves" mechanism [6] - The policy approach aims to balance the independence of the Federal Reserve with the administration's desire for rate cuts, reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation while addressing the administration's economic goals [6] Group 2: Economic Implications - QT is viewed as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of unlimited support for demand, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capacity from an industrial policy perspective [6] - The implementation of QT has shown effectiveness in controlling inflation, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from 9% to around 3% following the announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [6] - However, the use of QT has limitations, as recent liquidity tensions in the repurchase market have led to a halt in QT, necessitating the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition to a "scarce reserves" mechanism is expected to be challenging, with liquidity issues remaining a constraint on QT implementation until bank reserves return to a relatively sufficient level [6] - Policies aimed at revitalizing manufacturing and the real estate sector under the Trump administration require credit expansion from banks, which is dependent on adequate reserve levels [6] - The shift in policy focus from Wall Street to Main Street is seen as beneficial for addressing the "K"-shaped economic divergence in the U.S., but balancing the conflicts between the upper end (stock market) and lower end (inflation) remains a challenge for Walsh [6]

本报告导读： 2025 年 Q4 新股首日涨幅达 176%，并且未盈利新股对 A1 类账户贡献明显，打新基 金中位数 Q4 收益 0.45%，重仓行业为电子、有色金属和电力设备。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080007 | 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.29 未盈利新股显著增厚打新收益 ——2025Q4 打新基金持仓和收益分析 [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—国内汽车制造机器视觉设备龙头易思 维 2026.01.27 北证日均成交金额有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerating rise in memory prices and the pressure on durable goods consumption, indicating a mixed performance in the macroeconomic landscape [4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - AI data center construction continues to show strong demand, driving growth in technology hardware and accelerating memory price increases [4][6]. - The real estate and construction sectors remain weak, with prices for steel and building materials showing a downward trend [4][6]. - Overall consumer spending is weak, with the effects of national subsidies being exhausted, leading to pressure on durable goods consumption [4][5]. Group 2: Real Estate and Durable Goods - Real estate sales are at a low point, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 23.2% year-on-year, and first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 30.5%, 19.6%, and 20.4% respectively [5]. - Retail sales of durable goods, such as passenger cars, are also under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% noted for the week of October 13-19, 2025 [5]. - The air conditioning industry is experiencing significant declines in both domestic and foreign sales, with production down by 21.2% and 13.8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The price of DRAM memory chips has increased significantly, with a month-on-month rise of 11.7%, driven by strong demand from overseas AI server markets [6]. - The construction and building materials sector is facing challenges, with weak demand leading to price fluctuations in steel and building materials [6]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight increase in operating rates, with improved hiring intentions among companies [6]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Logistics - There is a slight recovery in long-distance travel demand, with a 5.5% month-on-month increase in the Baidu migration index [7]. - Freight demand remains stable, with logistics activity increasing as the "Double Eleven" shopping festival approaches [7]. - Port throughput has decreased, despite rising shipping prices [7]. Group 5: New Stock Market Insights - The new stock issuance pace remains steady, with first-day average gains for new stocks on the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market at 199.27%, 297.09%, and 149.17% respectively [11]. - The average net asset of new stock funds in Q3 2025 is 2.97 billion, with a median return of 4.88% across all new stock funds [12]. - The top five sectors for new stock funds are electronics, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and communications, with noticeable reductions in bank holdings [13].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for August 2025 was 28.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 42% month-on-month. The main board financing scale was 8.14 billion yuan, while the North Exchange financing scale was 14.04 billion yuan [3][7]. - A total of 8 new stocks were issued in the A-share market, remaining the same as the previous month. This included 1 from the main board, 5 from the North Exchange, and 2 from the Growth Enterprise Market [3][10]. - As of the end of August, there were 52 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across various A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 603.1 billion yuan. The Growth Enterprise Market accounted for 28% (10 projects), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 37% and 27% respectively [14]. Group 2 - The offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 100 million to 200 million yuan across various boards. The main board and Growth Enterprise Market primarily fell within this range, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a more dispersed range of 500 million to 1 billion yuan [15]. - In August, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board reached 624, a decrease of 60% month-on-month [20]. - The average winning rate for main board A/B class accounts in August was 0.0081% and 0.0080% respectively, down 33% and 32% month-on-month [21]. Group 3 - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds participating in new stock subscriptions and allocations showing a contribution of +0.026% for funds below 200 million yuan and +0.037% for those between 200 million and 300 million yuan. The annualized return was 0.174% [26]. - In August 2025, a total of 3,037 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 2.87 trillion yuan. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, totaling 1,136, followed by passive index funds with 725 and flexible allocation funds with 575 [27].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for July 2025 was 4.887 billion, with the main board raising 2.105 billion and the ChiNext board raising 2.216 billion, marking a 60% increase in the number of new stocks issued compared to the previous month [5][7][11] - As of the end of July, there were 50 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across all A-share boards, with a total proposed fundraising of 54.92 billion. The main board accounted for 40% of the proposed fundraising, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation boards accounted for 32% and 19%, respectively [11][13] - The average winning rate for new shares in July was 0.0121% for A-class accounts and 0.0118% for B-class accounts on the main board, reflecting a decrease of 79% and 76% respectively compared to the previous month [17][23] Group 2 - The average first-day price increase for new stocks on the main board in July was 231%, while the ChiNext board saw an average increase of 119% [31][34] - In July, 3,193 funds participated in new share subscriptions, with the highest number being equity mixed funds at 1,202, followed by flexible allocation funds at 604 and passive index funds at 758 [37][39] - The contribution of new shares to funds with a scale of 1-2 billion was +0.351%, while for those with a scale of 2-3 billion, it was +0.251%, indicating a positive impact on fund performance [32][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market showed differentiation, with the BeiZheng 50 leading the gains and the small - cap value style outperforming. In terms of industries, comprehensive finance led, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. The bond market declined overall, while the convertible bond market rose. The average return of active equity funds in the whole market was - 0.41%; the average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and that of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%; the average return of bond funds with equity exposure was negative, and the average return of convertible bond funds was positive [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The equity market was differentiated, with the BeiZheng 50 leading and the small - cap value style dominant. Comprehensive finance led the industry performance, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. As of the close this week, the CSI 300 Index closed at 3840 points, down 1.08%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3347 points, down 0.03%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10041 points, down 0.91%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1993 points, down 1.4%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.32%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.46% [6]. - In terms of industry performance, comprehensive finance led with a gain of over 10%. National defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performed well, while the automobile, non - ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy sectors declined by over 2% [8]. - As of May 30, 2025, there were 5413 stocks in the A - share market, of which 3228 stocks rose this week. The number of rising stocks on the BeiZheng, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board was 194, 816, 343, and 1875 respectively [11]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of the whole - market funds in the sample was - 0.41%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in industries such as medicine, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages. Among industry - themed funds, medical sector funds had the highest average return, while mid - stream manufacturing and cyclical sector funds lagged [17][20]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased slightly, while those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased by 0.22 percentage points, and those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.60 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to cyclical and stable sectors and reduced their allocation to financial, consumer, and growth sectors [23]. 3.2.2 Bond - type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market declined overall this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 245.89, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.62, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 223, down 0.01% from last week. The CSI Non - Pure Bond Fund Index closed at 2184.93 on Thursday, down 0.02% from last Thursday. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 429.31, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and a trading volume of 277.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.093 billion yuan from last week [29][31]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.04%. The average return of first - tier bond funds was 0%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of second - tier bond funds was - 0.02%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.02%. The average return of low - position flexible allocation funds was - 0.07%, and the median was - 0.05%. The average return of convertible bond funds was 0.28%, and the median was 0.22% [34][37][40]. 3.2.3 New - share Subscription Funds - **New - share Overview**: One new stock was listed this week, with a total raised capital of 604 million yuan. There was no break - even on the first day of listing, and the expected total入围 income was 35,400 yuan [41]. - **New - share Subscription Income Calculation**: Assuming weekly participation in offline new - share subscriptions and successful入围, the weekly new - share subscription return sequence of an 800 - million - yuan account was calculated [42]. - **Fund Company New - share Subscription Overview**: Eight fund companies with more than two new - share subscription funds were selected. This week, the new - share subscription return rate of an 800 - million - yuan account was 0.004%. The optimal scale for weekly and annual new - share subscriptions was 400 million yuan [44]. - **New - share Subscription Fund Performance**: The average return of new - share subscription funds in the sample this week was - 0.18% [46]. 3.2.4 FOF Fund Performance - The average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample this week were - 0.28%, - 0.88%, and - 1.45% respectively [48]. 3.2.5 QDII Funds - During the statistical period, partial - stock and index QDII funds declined by 0.71% and 0.83% on average respectively, while alternative and bond QDII funds rose by 0.02% and 0.37% on average respectively [2][49]. 3.2.6 REITs Funds - This week, REITs declined by 0.02% on average. The Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT led the gains, rising 4.26% this week. The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 130.2489 million yuan this week [51].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for March 2025 was 54.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% month-on-month. The main board raised 16.47 billion yuan, the ChiNext raised 22.25 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 3.66 billion yuan [2][5][6] - A total of 10 new stocks were issued in March, representing an 11% increase month-on-month, with 3 from the main board, 5 from the ChiNext, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][6] - As of the end of March, there were 46 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across all A-share boards, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 776.9 billion yuan [11] Group 2 - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in March was 0.0082% and 0.0070%, down 33% and 31% respectively month-on-month. For the ChiNext, the rates were 0.0117% and 0.0100%, down 49% and 52% respectively [17][22] - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in March was 0.0412% and 0.0407% [23] - The contribution of new stocks to funds with a scale of 1-2 billion yuan was +0.206%, while for those with a scale of 2-3 billion yuan, it was +0.138%. The annualized return for funds in the 8-9 billion yuan range was 0.447% [29][30] Group 3 - In March 2025, a total of 2,963 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 5.9 trillion yuan. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, totaling 1,165, followed by passive index funds with 664 [31][32] - The distribution of offline subscription limits for new stocks in the past three months was primarily in the [1,2) billion yuan range across various boards [12][14]