2026年，药品零售企业将迎来一轮并购与重组。 近日，商务部、国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部、国家卫生健康委等9部门发布《关于促进药品零售 行业高质量发展的意见》(以下简称《意见》)，鼓励药品零售企业依法开展横向并购与重组。 《意见》指出，支持零售药店进行兼并重组。鼓励药品零售企业依法开展横向并购与重组。鼓励各地优 化营商环境，对于被整合的连锁或单体药店，优化《药品经营许可证》申请核发流程。涉及医保资质变 更的，允许原医保资质继续存续和使用，新医保资质正式开通后，注销原医保资质。 药品零售企业是指将购进的药品直接销售给消费者的经营主体，其核心特征是面向终端消费者进行药品 销售。在实际经营中，这类企业最常见的组织形式就是零售药店，包括单体药店和药品零售连锁企业的 门店。零售药店作为药品流通的"最后一公里"，直接连接患者与药品供应，其健康发展关系到公众用药 可及性、价格合理性及服务质量。 三是兼并重组障碍多，整合效率低。药店并购涉及《药品经营许可证》变更、医保资质衔接等复杂流 程。过去，收购后需重新申请许可证，需要耗时数月；医保资质变更期间易出现"空窗期"，购药无法刷 医保，导致患者流失、收入下滑，抑制企业整合意 ...

市场分析人士指出，上海医药、华润医药两者均为大型流通集团，批零一体化已趋于成熟，《意见》支 持跨区域公平竞争，将助推其扩展零售端，营收规模或显著增长。九州通在批零一体方面已有较深厚积 累，政策将强化其供应链优势，参与集采有望进一步降低采购成本，提升毛利率。 具体举措包括，鼓励药品零售企业依法开展横向并购与重组，鼓励各地优化营商环境，对于被整合的连 锁或单体药店，优化《药品经营许可证》申请核发流程。涉及医保资质变更的，允许原医保资质继续存 续和使用，新医保资质正式开通后，注销原医保资质。 此外，鼓励药品批发企业依法通过兼并重组整合供应链与零售终端，推动批零一体化发展，实现仓储物 流资源共用、质量管理体系协同及全流程信息追溯，提升供应链效率，有效降低运营成本。 市场普遍认为，这一医药流通行业的指导性政策意见将进一步推动并购重组，提升行业集中度，与此同 时，批零一体化、药房作为"健康服务枢纽"新定位，以及供应链优化等将降低流通环节成本，推动相关 上市公司从"药品销售"向"综合服务"转型。 截至1月23日收市，当天涨幅居前公司中，益丰药房（上涨10.02%）、大参林（上涨6.88%）均为连锁 药房门店数量领先的行业龙 ...

目前，参保人员凭定点医药机构处方在定点零售药店购买医保目录内药品发生的费用可由医保基金按规 定支付。此次《意见》的出台，将进一步优化定点零售药店门诊统筹服务。《意见》提到，优化医保基 金与零售药店的结算方式，有效压缩结算时长，提升结算效率。优化医保定点零售药店资源配置规划， 结合一刻钟便民生活圈建设，推动医保定点药店合理布局。 此外，《意见》鼓励行业协会或区域医药流通龙头企业牵头，引导药品零售企业参与药品集中带量采 购。针对其他药品，鼓励零售药店整合采购需求，开展联合采购，实现量价挂钩，提升议价能力。 《意见》还特别提到引导商业健康保险与基本医疗保险协同发展，支持保险机构开发适配药品零售场景 的商业健康保险产品，满足群众多元化保障需求。针对高值药品、器械，支持药品零售企业与商业保险 机构建立风险共担、便捷高效的支付协同机制，切实降低患者支付压力。 针对应急保供需求，《意见》明确将强化零售药店"哨点"功能，鼓励大型连锁企业建立药品需求动态预 测和低库存预警机制。鼓励在疫情、灾情等突发情况下开展24小时营业、拆零销售、免费送药等服务， 稳定药品价格并引导合理用药。 推广药品比价工具应用 在优化行业结构方面，《意见 ...

近期，各地结合实际相继推出政策文件并推动实施，批零一体化、多仓协同等经营模式已从概念逐步转 化为实际，药品流通行业进入集约化、高质量发展的新阶段。 内蒙古：发放首张药品批发零售连锁一体化药品经营许可证 江西省药监局、省医保局联合印发《优化审批流程促进药品零售连锁产业高质量发展若干政策措施》， 以支持企业整合、简化审批流程、鼓励委托储存配送等13条政策措施，力促药品零售连锁产业高质量发 展。文件的出台实施，有利于进一步深化行政审批制度改革，营造良好营商环境，推动民营经济发展； 有利于强化零售药店健康促进、营养保健等功能，助推江西省医药生物产业和大健康管理等新型服务业 态发展；有利于保障药品质量，方便群众就近购买药品或享用其它延伸服务，更好满足人民健康需求。 内蒙古首张符合药品批发零售连锁一体化经营新规的药品经营许可证成功发放。前期，内蒙古药监局已 出台《关于进一步规范药品批发零售连锁"一体化"经营的通告》，明确一体化经营企业可实现"一个经 营主体、一套人员配置、一张经营许可证"，此次首张一体化许可证的发放，标志着内蒙古优化医药流 通格局、激发市场活力的药品批零一体化经营改革进入实质性落地阶段。 江西：出台13条 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cinda Securities reports that China National Pharmaceutical Group (National Pharmaceutical Holdings) is nearing the end of its inefficient business adjustments, with profit improvements expected by Q3 2025. The company is benefiting from increased industry concentration and the development of innovative businesses, leading to a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios and a current valuation below historical averages. The initial coverage gives the company a "Buy" investment rating [1]. Group 1: Profit Improvement and Business Adjustments - The adjustment of inefficient businesses is close to completion, with significant profit improvements observed. In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 0.2 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - The year 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the base year for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on quality improvement and business structure optimization. The company is expected to perform well in 2026, with profits likely to exceed expectations [2]. - The company has steadily increased its dividend payout ratio over the past four years, from 28.1% in 2021 to 30.98% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.96 percentage points. The average dividend yield over the past five years is 4.45%, and the current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.71, below the five-year average of 0.81 [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Concentration and Growth Drivers - The concentration of the distribution industry has increased, with the market share of the top four companies rising from 38.38% in 2019 to 42.69% in 2023, with National Pharmaceutical Holdings holding a 20.36% market share in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the company's pharmaceutical distribution revenue is approximately 7% from 2018 to 2024, with projected revenue of about 424.6 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Growth drivers for pharmaceutical distribution include increased industry concentration, optimization of product structure towards high-demand and high-value products, and the promotion of innovative service development. The CAGR for medical device distribution revenue is approximately 15.69%, with projected revenue of about 117.5 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - In the retail sector, the company is advancing its "integrated wholesale and retail" strategy, with a CAGR of approximately 16% in retail revenue from 2018 to 2024. The revenue growth for the National Pharmacy is projected at 12.52%, while specialized pharmacies are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 23.64% [3]. Group 3: Future Planning and Governance Changes - The governance structure of the National Pharmaceutical Group underwent changes in 2024, with new leadership appointed. The company aims to achieve a strategic goal of becoming a top 100 company with a trillion yuan in revenue by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan is set to begin in 2025 [4]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has shown a steady increase, with a slight decline in the dividend yield to 3.47% in 2024 due to a decrease in profits. The current PB ratio is approximately 0.71, which is below the five-year average of 0.81 [4]. Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 577.19 billion yuan, 597.83 billion yuan, and 619.32 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 4%, and 4%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.08 billion yuan, 8.75 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 9% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to improve profitability and operational efficiency as it approaches the end of its low-efficiency business adjustments by Q3 2025, with a projected net profit growth of 17% in that quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 28.1% in 2021 to 30.98% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.96 percentage points [1][3] - The company's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.71, which is lower than the five-year average of 0.81 [1][3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The concentration of the pharmaceutical distribution industry has increased from 38.38% in 2019 to 42.69% in 2023, with the company holding a market share of 20.36% in 2023 [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the company's pharmaceutical distribution revenue is projected to be around 7% from 2018 to 2024, with expected revenue of approximately 424.6 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The company's medical device distribution revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 15.69% from 2018 to 2024, reaching approximately 117.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency while optimizing its business structure in preparation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" conclusion and the "15th Five-Year Plan" initiation [1][3] - The company is implementing a "wholesale and retail integration" strategy to deepen its dual-brand strategy with professional pharmacies and Guoda pharmacies [2] - The company anticipates improvements in profitability for Guoda pharmacies by optimizing underperforming stores [2] Group 4: Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 577.19 billion yuan, 597.83 billion yuan, and 619.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.08 billion yuan, 8.75 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.27, 6.71, and 6.17, respectively [4]