Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum and palladium are recommended for long - position allocation on pullbacks [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals showed strength, with gold and silver hitting new all - time highs. Trump's statements about Greenland, tariffs, and Iran have lifted the precious metals market, but short - term profit - taking risks should be watched out for when gold breaks through $5000/oz and silver breaks through $100/oz. It's advisable to wait for a stable trading range and lower volatility before re - entering the market [1] - Since January 21st, the trading ranges of platinum and palladium have widened. On January 23rd, multiple platinum contracts rose over 9% and multiple palladium contracts rose over 3%. The upward trend is mainly driven by macro factors. With the weakening US dollar and increased market bets on the decline of the US, platinum and palladium are expected to be long - allocated on pullbacks before market liquidity tightens significantly [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogues Economic Data - In November 2025, the US PCE price index annual rate increased by 2.8% (expected 2.7%), and the monthly rate increased by 0.2% (in line with expectations). The core PCE price index annual rate increased by 2.8%, and the monthly rate increased by 0.2% (in line with expectations). The number of initial jobless claims in the week of January 17th was 200,000 (expected 210,000) [3] Greenland Situation - Greenland's pension fund is considering whether to continue investing in US stocks - Trump said no payment is needed for the acquisition of Greenland, and any agreement will allow full access. He threatened major retaliation if Europe sells US assets due to tariff threats and expects progress on Greenland issues in two weeks - Denmark is participating in the Greenland framework agreement negotiation with the US - After Trump withdrew tariff threats, the European Parliament plans to restart the vote on the US - EU trade agreement, but the US Commerce Secretary said the agreement is likely to be shelved [3] Ukraine - US - Russia Relations - Trump said the meeting with Zelensky was "very good". Zelensky said that Ukraine, the US, and Russia will hold a tripartite meeting in the UAE on the 23rd [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn, with major declines in prices, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and investor behavior as 2026 approaches [1][3][10]. Market Performance - Domestic precious metal futures saw widespread declines, with silver dropping nearly 7% and gold nearly 4% [1]. - International precious metals also faced sharp declines, with London gold down 4.52% and silver down 10.32% [4][7]. - The market witnessed a dramatic reversal, with prices plummeting after previously reaching historical highs for silver and gold [8][10]. Factors Influencing Market Movement - Technical indicators and profit-taking by investors were identified as primary reasons for the market adjustment [10]. - A significant policy change by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which raised margin requirements for various metal futures by over 10%, was seen as a key trigger for the price drop [14]. - Speculation regarding a major bank's potential liquidation due to margin calls contributed to market volatility, although this was later denied by the bank involved [11][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price declines may be a temporary correction within a broader upward trend for precious metals, although short-term risks remain heightened [15][16]. - The macroeconomic environment is still favorable for precious metals, with expectations of continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices due to potential dollar depreciation [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant reversal, with silver futures dropping sharply after initially surpassing $80 per ounce, closing down nearly 7% near the $70 mark, while gold prices fell over 4% [3][12]. Market Analysis - The market adjustment was attributed to several factors, including technical indicator corrections, profit-taking by investors, and policy changes from exchanges [4][13]. - Following a 10% increase on the previous Friday, silver futures saw a dramatic decline of 15% from peak to trough, marking the largest intraday volatility since August 2020 [5][14]. - Analysts noted that the recent price movements deviated significantly from moving averages, indicating a need for market correction due to liquidity issues [5][14]. - The sharp price drop was also linked to profit-taking and year-end tax-related selling by investors, despite silver's year-to-date gain exceeding 140% [5][14]. Exchange Policy Impact - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) announcement to raise margin requirements for various metal futures by over 10% was seen as a key factor in the market's downturn [7][15]. - The initial margin for silver futures expiring in March 2026 was increased to $25,000, which historically has led to significant price declines in the past [7][16]. Future Outlook - The surge in precious metals this year is supported by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, active gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing trends of "de-dollarization" [8][17]. - Silver is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. fiscal deficits, with structural growth in demand driven by industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [8][17]. - Institutions remain optimistic about the market outlook, with JPMorgan predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 by the end of 2026, and a significant increase in quarterly gold purchases by central banks and retail investors [9][18]. - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, with 27% anticipating prices between $80 and $100 per ounce by 2026 [9][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is currently facing a severe supply shortage, compounded by high demand, which is expected to drive prices higher [10][19]. - Analysts emphasize that the current market has a significant amount of paper trading and positions that require adequate physical silver supply to fulfill, which is currently lacking [9][18].