投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-28 ⾦银⾼位震荡运⾏，波动⻛险加剧 ⻩⾦⾼位运⾏，避险与配置需求⽀撑其强势；⽩银在快速拉涨后进⼊⾼位 震荡，短期需警惕⾼波动下的回撤⻛险。两者均受宏观避险情绪主导，但 ⽩银受⼯业需求与资⾦获利了结影响更易出现波动。（以上新闻和数据均 来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点 高位运行保持韧性，避险与配置属性占优，短期关注风险事件对波动 的放大效应。 逻辑： 在贵金属整体成为市场焦点的背景下，黄金在高位区间内获 得较强支撑。亚洲时段，受特朗普针对韩国关税言论影响，区域市场 不确定性上升，权益资产承压，黄金与白银小幅走高，体现避险需求 边际回流。相较其他贵金属，黄金价格运行更为平稳，波动率明显低 于白银，配置型资金重新将黄金视为优先选择，支撑其在高位维持强 势。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望： 在全球不确定性上升、风险偏好反复切换的环境下，黄金的 避险与配置价值仍具韧性。短期关注地缘与贸易政策扰动带来的波动 放大风险，但中期支撑逻辑未改。 白银观点 快速拉升后进入节奏修复阶段，价格弹性仍在，但高波动状态下回撤 风险上升。 宏观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘海外金银价格的纷纷冲高回落，白银高位下挫近 10%。我们认为这是短期市场累 计较大涨幅后，由资 ...

★特朗普称与泽连斯基会晤"非常好"。泽连斯基表示，乌美俄将于23日在阿联酋举行三方会谈。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 | 国际 首页 > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属表现强势,金银继续刷新历史新高。特朗普称关于格陵兰岛的协议将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全 面准入,如 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, both platinum and palladium have entered the adjustment phase. For the long - term, a long - position view is maintained for platinum, while palladium's long - term supply - demand tends to loosen but the price bottom has some support [3][4][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium futures prices dropped significantly. The platinum main contract opened 4.07% lower at 630.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract opened 8.54% lower at 523.95 yuan/gram. The sharp rise in platinum and palladium futures was due to market speculation, leading to the widening of spreads and the formation of risk - free arbitrage opportunities. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented trading measures on December 23 to manage price risks. Also, some funds started taking profits before the Christmas and New Year holidays [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: In 2026, with the rise in prices and profit recovery, major mining companies are expected to maintain stable production, but overall output is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 17.8 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and global palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 298.4 tons respectively. However, short - term supply risks from extreme weather, labor disputes, and power shortages should be watched [4] - **Demand**: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum's industrial demand and the growth of jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may also be stimulated. Global platinum demand is expected to grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure and is expected to decline 2.7% to 282.4 tons [4] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage of global platinum supply and a 16.9 - ton surplus of global palladium supply [4] Summary and Strategy - **Platinum**: In the long - term, the Fed's policies and supply concentration give an upward drive to platinum prices, and demand will expand steadily. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity, so a long - position view is maintained. In the short - term, the NYMEX platinum is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 2400 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX platinum between 510 - 700 yuan/gram. It is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for price rebounds. Also, when the platinum - palladium spread is low, it is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and continue to pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Palladium**: Long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term geopolitical issues in Russia keep the spot market tight. With the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle, the palladium price bottom has some support. The NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 2000 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 yuan/gram. Palladium is also in the short - term adjustment phase, and long - position reduction has been previously suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities can still be monitored [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

| Millio | > 国反期员 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 国庆期间贵金属延续强势,国际金价突破四千美元关口,今日国内高开跟涨。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数 据暂停发布、市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎,前期多单持有,避免追涨介入。 ...

| Millio | > 国反期员 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 国庆期间贵金属延续强势,国际金价突破四千美元关口,今日国内高开跟涨。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数 据暂停发布、市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎,前期多单持有,避免追涨介入。 ★特朗普宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署我们和平计划的第一阶段协议。此前他表示可能在周末前往中东，考 虑去加沙。 ★在近期第六轮投票表决中，美参议院再次否决两党拔款法案，联邦政府继续停摆。 ★美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要显示，在9月的会议上，与会的美联储委员 们一致认为, ...

Market Overview - On September 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%[4] - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 2.36 trillion yuan, showing a significant decline compared to previous sessions[1] - Since April 7, the Shanghai Composite Index has seen a maximum increase of nearly 28%, while the ChiNext Index has surged over 69%[1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well include fourth-generation semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, gaming, precious metals, and biopharmaceuticals, indicating strong capital inflow into these areas[1][2] - Conversely, sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, small metals, securities, communication services, and diversified finance experienced adjustments[1] Capital Flow - On September 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 20.649 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange recorded a net inflow of 5.467 billion yuan[5] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were communication equipment, IT services, and photovoltaic equipment, while the sectors with the highest outflow were securities, software development, and aerospace equipment[5] Gold Market - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1,050 yuan per gram, with international gold prices reaching a historical high of 3,546.92 USD per ounce[6] - The recent rise in gold prices has made it a safe haven for investors amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Fundraising Trends - In September, there are 124 new fund launches planned, with 85 being equity funds, accounting for nearly 70% of the total[15] - The enthusiasm for new fund launches is attributed to strong market performance and supportive policies, with equity fund indices reaching near three-year highs and a 50% increase over the past year[15]