Macro Perspective - The U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined in September but remains in expansion territory, indicating a cooling in prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that interest rates are still "moderately restrictive," highlighting the dual challenges facing monetary policy, while also suggesting that the stock market may be overvalued [1] Industry Analysis - According to Huazhong Futures, the 2025 RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material security for smelters, although policy disruptions persist [1] - Domestic nickel imports remained high in July, with Indonesian nickel pig iron supply also stable in August, and electrolytic nickel production maintained at elevated levels [1] - Refined nickel social inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Demand Insights - Zhongcai Futures noted that stainless steel performance improved slightly in September, while real estate data from July showed weak seasonal performance [1] - In the new energy sector, the operating rate of ternary materials improved month-on-month in September, with demand showing slight improvement during the "golden September" period [1] Market Outlook - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicated that disruptions from Indonesian mine closures are limited, with nickel ore prices remaining stable and no extreme weather impacts on overseas nickel mines [1] - Domestic southern port shipments are temporarily stagnant, leading to tight supply of intermediate products, with MHP spot resources in short supply and high nickel prices continuing to rise [1] - Nickel iron prices are still on an upward trend, but downstream acceptance remains weak, resulting in a slow pace of price increases [1] - The spot trading of pure nickel is sluggish, with no significant changes in premiums and discounts, suggesting that short-term nickel prices lack clear drivers and may undergo technical corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is driven by demand expectations and speculative behavior, but the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, limiting the potential for significant price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on May 16, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery settled at $62.49 per barrel, up $0.87, a 1.41% increase; Brent crude for July delivery settled at $65.41 per barrel, up $0.88, a 1.36% increase [1]. - The market anticipates that a potential nuclear agreement with Iran could lead to an additional supply of approximately 400,000 barrels per day [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural imbalances in soft power are constraining the rebound potential, with non-OPEC countries (like U.S. shale oil) continuing to suppress oil price levels [2]. - The 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China has alleviated some pessimism regarding demand, but underlying economic weaknesses, such as a manufacturing PMI below the growth line, remain a rigid constraint [2][3]. Group 3: Behavioral and Institutional Factors - Short-term price fluctuations are driven by speculative behavior and market reactions to geopolitical developments, but these do not provide sustainable value support [2]. - The limited nature of the trade agreement and the potential for reversibility in soft power commitments create institutional risks that may inhibit long-term investment [3]. Group 4: Long-term Trends and Projections - The current oil price rebound is characterized as a temporary phenomenon driven by expectation corrections and technical adjustments, with long-term pressures from non-OPEC production increases and weakened demand elasticity [3]. - The oil price is expected to be constrained within a range of $5 to $8 per barrel in the medium to long term due to these dual pressures [3].