Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market experienced a severe downturn due to expectations of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, leading to significant sell-offs in gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices plummeted by 9%, erasing gains from the previous two weeks [1][3]. - Silver fell over 13% after setting a record the previous week [1][3]. - Oil prices dropped nearly 5.5%, while copper saw a decline close to 5% [1][3]. Group 2: Margin Requirements and Trading Dynamics - CME Group raised metal futures margin requirements starting this week, which accelerated selling pressure [1][3]. - The increase in margin requirements raised trading costs, forcing many speculative positions to liquidate in a low liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - The current widespread adjustment in commodities is viewed as a technical correction rather than a structural bear market [2][4]. - Despite market panic, some strategists maintain a long-term bullish outlook, emphasizing that the fundamentals of commodities have not fundamentally reversed [2][4]. - The chaotic sell-off is attributed to multiple macro risk events causing liquidity crunches, rather than indicating the start of a structural bear market [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is at a crossroads of high volatility and technical correction as it enters 2026, with significant downward risks accumulated from extreme price surges in late 2025 [1][4] Market Dynamics - Despite solid growth drivers in 2025 and potential indicated by ETF allocations, the extreme highs in gold, silver, and platinum group metals (PGMs) have created notable short-term correction pressures [1][4] - The potential threat from U.S. tariff policies has led to a large flow of precious metals into U.S. reserves, squeezing liquidity in other global markets [4] - The platinum market is expected to continue facing supply shortages in 2026, exacerbated by declining production in South Africa, which increases price sensitivity to buying interest [4] ETF and Speculative Positions - Gold and silver ETF holdings grew by 20% in 2025, but overall holdings remain below historical peaks, leaving room for potential investor entry [2][4] - Speculative net long positions have not reached extreme levels, indicating potential for further investment [2] - Technical indicators have raised warning signals, with platinum's daily RSI exceeding 90 in December, marking a severe overbought condition [2][4] - Historical data suggests that when prices deviate more than 20% from the 200-day moving average, a 10% to 20% deep correction is often anticipated [2][4] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions have intensified in January, becoming a key driver for gold prices, with U.S. military and diplomatic actions in Latin America and strategic interests in Greenland's mineral resources complicating geopolitical relations and enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [5] - Spot gold has stabilized above $4600 per ounce, but the extreme price increases in 2025 suggest a tendency for the market to consolidate at high levels to digest profit-taking [5] Silver Market Performance - The silver market has also experienced volatility, with prices reaching a new high of $84 per ounce before facing pressure due to increased margin requirements from CME and profit-taking by investors [3][5] - New export quotas for silver from major supply countries, effective January 1, have reduced the number of companies allowed to export to 44, tightening supply expectations and supporting a subsequent price increase of over 7% [3][5] Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but investors should be cautious of technical corrections following extreme overbought conditions [5] - Current gold and silver prices show strong resilience, but the dual pressures of policy uncertainty and increased margin requirements necessitate close monitoring of key support levels [5]

Macro Perspective - The U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined in September but remains in expansion territory, indicating a cooling in prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that interest rates are still "moderately restrictive," highlighting the dual challenges facing monetary policy, while also suggesting that the stock market may be overvalued [1] Industry Analysis - According to Huazhong Futures, the 2025 RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material security for smelters, although policy disruptions persist [1] - Domestic nickel imports remained high in July, with Indonesian nickel pig iron supply also stable in August, and electrolytic nickel production maintained at elevated levels [1] - Refined nickel social inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Demand Insights - Zhongcai Futures noted that stainless steel performance improved slightly in September, while real estate data from July showed weak seasonal performance [1] - In the new energy sector, the operating rate of ternary materials improved month-on-month in September, with demand showing slight improvement during the "golden September" period [1] Market Outlook - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicated that disruptions from Indonesian mine closures are limited, with nickel ore prices remaining stable and no extreme weather impacts on overseas nickel mines [1] - Domestic southern port shipments are temporarily stagnant, leading to tight supply of intermediate products, with MHP spot resources in short supply and high nickel prices continuing to rise [1] - Nickel iron prices are still on an upward trend, but downstream acceptance remains weak, resulting in a slow pace of price increases [1] - The spot trading of pure nickel is sluggish, with no significant changes in premiums and discounts, suggesting that short-term nickel prices lack clear drivers and may undergo technical corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is driven by demand expectations and speculative behavior, but the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, limiting the potential for significant price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on May 16, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery settled at $62.49 per barrel, up $0.87, a 1.41% increase; Brent crude for July delivery settled at $65.41 per barrel, up $0.88, a 1.36% increase [1]. - The market anticipates that a potential nuclear agreement with Iran could lead to an additional supply of approximately 400,000 barrels per day [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural imbalances in soft power are constraining the rebound potential, with non-OPEC countries (like U.S. shale oil) continuing to suppress oil price levels [2]. - The 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China has alleviated some pessimism regarding demand, but underlying economic weaknesses, such as a manufacturing PMI below the growth line, remain a rigid constraint [2][3]. Group 3: Behavioral and Institutional Factors - Short-term price fluctuations are driven by speculative behavior and market reactions to geopolitical developments, but these do not provide sustainable value support [2]. - The limited nature of the trade agreement and the potential for reversibility in soft power commitments create institutional risks that may inhibit long-term investment [3]. Group 4: Long-term Trends and Projections - The current oil price rebound is characterized as a temporary phenomenon driven by expectation corrections and technical adjustments, with long-term pressures from non-OPEC production increases and weakened demand elasticity [3]. - The oil price is expected to be constrained within a range of $5 to $8 per barrel in the medium to long term due to these dual pressures [3].