展望后市，牛市的脚步并未停下，市场存在继续上攻的潜力和动能。政策面角度，中央经济工作会议客 观、准确、务实地回应了市场对消费、投资、科技等多方面问题的关切，增量配套政策值得期待。基本 面角度，经济数据对短线的压力反而构成了长期的预期差修复空间，市场或将在震荡整固的过程中等待 实体经济的企稳回升。技术面角度，调整以来A股多次下挫均顽强拉回，体现了场外资金的进场热情， 多空双方对下方支撑区域逐渐形成共识。 今日A股探底回升，下方存在阶段性支撑。板块层面多数上涨，半导体设备、电网等科技成长板块领 涨，创新药、化工、煤炭等少数板块表现偏弱。截至收盘，上证指数放量上涨，报3889.35点，上涨 0.41%，深证成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%。个股层面涨跌互现，约2700家上涨，2600余家下跌，小 微盘股受情绪影响表现较弱。成交方面，沪深两市成交额约2.1万亿元，较昨日放量超两千亿元，交投 情绪有所回暖。 本周市场主要呈现冲高回落后的震荡走势，但跌势并不流畅，盘中多有承接。周一指数高开高走，回补 前期跳空缺口，但做多情绪略显不足。周二周三，市场在迷茫和怀疑中震荡下跌，逼近反弹通道下沿后 获得日内短暂支撑。周四在 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital markets are experiencing a "differential expectation repair" trend following a significant reversal in the US-China tariff conflict, with US stocks recording the second-largest single-day net buy in five years at $32 billion on May 13 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 4.7% due to better-than-expected earnings reports from JD.com and Tencent [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 GDP forecast for China from 4% to 4.6%, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the economic recovery [1] Group 2: Capital Flow Dynamics - Capital flows in the stock market are showing a structural differentiation, with foreign capital net buying A-shares for four consecutive days post-tariff agreement, primarily directed towards undervalued blue-chip stocks [2] - Despite this, there has been a cumulative net outflow of approximately 32 billion yuan from foreign capital since the beginning of the year, indicating a cautious approach amidst ongoing negotiations [2] Group 3: Domestic Fund Adjustments - Domestic funds are accelerating their portfolio adjustments to capitalize on policy benefits, with public equity funds increasing their positions from 87.98% to 89.21% in Q1 2025 [3] - Private equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, focusing on sectors with higher policy certainty such as consumption, healthcare, and undervalued stocks [3] Group 4: Policy Influence on Market - The central bank is directing funds towards key strategic sectors like robotics and semiconductor equipment through targeted tools, with an estimated 800 billion yuan being allocated [4] - Fiscal policies are also actively stabilizing market expectations, with insurance funds increasing their allocations to undervalued state-owned enterprises [4] Group 5: Currency Market Movements - The international currency market has seen a rare simultaneous strengthening of both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, with the dollar index rebounding above 101 due to reduced economic pressure from trade tensions [5] - The offshore yuan reached a three-month high, supported by trade surpluses and improved risk sentiment, indicating a potential return of previously outflowed capital [5] Group 6: Bond Market Trends - The bond market is witnessing a shift in risk appetite, with significant capital moving from bonds to equities following the US-China joint statement on May 12 [6] - The 30-year treasury futures fell by 1.31%, and the 10-year treasury yield rose by over 5 basis points, reflecting a withdrawal of funds from interest rate-sensitive assets [6] Group 7: Commodity and Alternative Asset Adjustments - The commodity market is experiencing structural adjustments, with industrial prices rebounding due to improved trade activities and low inventories, while agricultural products see only moderate increases [7] - Alternative assets like Southeast Asian industrial real estate are gaining traction, reflecting a shift towards stable returns amidst policy uncertainties [7] Group 8: Cross-Border Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in cross-border direct investment towards tangible sectors, with China reducing the negative list for free trade zones and enhancing cross-border RMB settlement policies [8] - The demand for RMB assets is increasing, with significant net inflows into the stock market and rising direct investments in advanced manufacturing and green energy sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is driven by demand expectations and speculative behavior, but the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, limiting the potential for significant price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on May 16, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery settled at $62.49 per barrel, up $0.87, a 1.41% increase; Brent crude for July delivery settled at $65.41 per barrel, up $0.88, a 1.36% increase [1]. - The market anticipates that a potential nuclear agreement with Iran could lead to an additional supply of approximately 400,000 barrels per day [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural imbalances in soft power are constraining the rebound potential, with non-OPEC countries (like U.S. shale oil) continuing to suppress oil price levels [2]. - The 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China has alleviated some pessimism regarding demand, but underlying economic weaknesses, such as a manufacturing PMI below the growth line, remain a rigid constraint [2][3]. Group 3: Behavioral and Institutional Factors - Short-term price fluctuations are driven by speculative behavior and market reactions to geopolitical developments, but these do not provide sustainable value support [2]. - The limited nature of the trade agreement and the potential for reversibility in soft power commitments create institutional risks that may inhibit long-term investment [3]. Group 4: Long-term Trends and Projections - The current oil price rebound is characterized as a temporary phenomenon driven by expectation corrections and technical adjustments, with long-term pressures from non-OPEC production increases and weakened demand elasticity [3]. - The oil price is expected to be constrained within a range of $5 to $8 per barrel in the medium to long term due to these dual pressures [3].