以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者白重恩 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）学术委员、清华大学经济管理学院院长、全国 工商联副主席 白重恩 当前中国经济内需不足、价格偏低，此时正是"投资于改革"的好时机，即 通过财政与货币政策的协同配合，为结构性改革支付过渡成本，从而实现 短期刺激与长期制度优化的双重目标。 当下是"投资于改革"的好时机 当前价格走势较为疲软，内需不足。从数据来看，无论是CPI还是PPI，目前都处于较低水平，尤其是PPI更为明显。此外，近年来名义GDP增速甚至低于 实际GDP增速，这反映出需求不足与价格偏低的问题。在此背景下，实现温和的通货膨胀将带来诸多益处，包括稳定包括房地产在内的资产名义价格。我 们应如何实现温和通胀的目标？ 一个重要的思路是实施刺激政策。其中，财政刺激是关键手段之一。关于财政资金应投向何处，存在多种观点。过去主要投资于"物"，即基础设施等实物 资产，但其效果已逐渐减弱。如今，各方普遍强调"投资于人"，这无疑是一大进步。然而，"投资于人"也面临挑战。 例如，若用于改善社会保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to shift focus from traditional investments in physical assets and human capital to "investment in reform" to address current economic challenges and achieve long-term sustainable growth [4][5]. Group 1: Limitations of Traditional Investment Directions - Current investment strategies primarily focus on "investment in physical assets" and "investment in human capital," both of which face constraints in the current environment [6]. - "Investment in physical assets" is limited due to high inventory in real estate, diminishing returns in traditional infrastructure, and potential overcapacity in certain manufacturing sectors [6]. - "Investment in human capital" is crucial for sectors like healthcare and education, but it must consider fiscal sustainability, as such expenditures are rigid and difficult to reverse [6]. Group 2: Establishing a Strategic Direction for "Investment in Reform" - The article suggests establishing a policy direction focused on "investment in reform" to address issues of insufficient demand and weak prices [7]. - Utilizing the current low-cost environment for fiscal deficits and monetary expansion can help cover the transitional costs of reforms, thereby optimizing the fiscal structure and institutional arrangements [7]. Group 3: Historical Experience - Reform of State-Owned Commercial Banks - The reform of state-owned commercial banks in the late 1990s serves as a successful example of "investment in reform," where approximately 1.4 trillion yuan of non-performing assets were removed, accounting for about 17% of GDP at that time [9]. - This reform not only mitigated financial risks but also laid the groundwork for the modernization of the banking system and the establishment of a vertical management system to shield banks from local government interference [9]. Group 4: Pathway Suggestions for Local Fiscal and Financing Platform Reform - The article recommends applying the lessons from bank reforms to local fiscal reforms and financing platform transformations, addressing the structural issues underlying local debt [10]. - Suggestions include central government issuance of bonds to replace local debt, comprehensive reform of fiscal systems, and ensuring that financing platforms operate as true market entities [10]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with recommendations for increased bond issuance and liquidity support to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [10]. Conclusion - The article concludes that leveraging the current macroeconomic policy window to enhance fiscal and monetary policies and focus funding on transitional reform costs is an effective strategy for addressing short-term demand issues and achieving long-term goals of financial strength and high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China should invest in reforms alongside investments in goods and people, as this can address short-term demand issues without increasing long-term fiscal burdens [1] - Successful past examples of reform investments include the banking sector reforms at the end of the last century and the beginning of this century, which involved significant measures to remove risks from the banking system [1] - New areas for reform investment include addressing local government debt while simultaneously reforming local finance and financing platforms [1] Group 2 - The fundamental approach to resolving local debt issues involves comprehensive reforms of local finance and financing platforms, ensuring that the alleviation of debt pressure does not lead to new debt issues due to systemic reasons [2] - Key strategies include deepening local fiscal system reforms to align fiscal rights and responsibilities, thereby reducing local governments' reliance on land and hidden debts [2] - Financing platforms must transition to market-oriented operations, with debt based solely on operational cash flow and market credit, completely separating from local government fiscal credit [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China faces challenges such as insufficient total demand, strong supply but weak demand, and price weakness, necessitating more proactive fiscal and monetary policy collaboration [3][7]. Investment Direction - Investment in both physical assets and human capital is crucial, but each faces practical considerations. Investment in new productive forces, technological self-innovation, and strengthening manufacturing is essential, while excessive investment in real estate is inadvisable due to high inventory levels. Traditional infrastructure investment has diminishing marginal returns and maintenance costs, and manufacturing investment must guard against overcapacity risks [3][7]. - Human capital investments in healthcare, elderly care, and education require increased funding but must be carefully planned due to their irreversible nature [3][7]. Funding Sources - The management of deficit size and debt levels must balance short-term effects with long-term sustainability. A new approach termed "investment in reform" is proposed, which involves using current strong fiscal and monetary policies to support the transitional costs of reforms, especially in the context of insufficient total demand [3][7]. Reform Directions - Local fiscal reform is highlighted as a key area for progress, suggesting that the central government should replace part of local debt with national bonds while coordinating with local fiscal reforms and market-oriented financing platform reforms [4][8]. - Financing platforms should transition from primarily serving fiscal needs to becoming genuine market entities, optimizing tax and expenditure structures to achieve fiscal balance [4][8]. Policy Coordination - After the issuance of national bonds by the fiscal department, the monetary department should actively purchase these bonds to mitigate market shocks. Expanding the central bank's balance sheet is not expected to have significant negative impacts and can alleviate local government debt pressure, enabling more active support for livelihoods and local development, thus stimulating economic growth and returning prices to reasonable levels [9]. - Moderate inflation, while appearing as an "inflation tax," can actually promote total demand growth, stabilize prices, increase employment, and enhance asset value, ultimately benefiting residents in the long run [9].