根据世界卫生组织预测，全球每年约有10亿例季节性流感病例，包括300万至500万例重症病例。在此 背景下，抗流感药物市场空间广阔。据头豹研究院预测，2024—2028年中国抗流感用药市场规模将以 20.2%的年复合增长率持续增长，到2028年有望达到269亿元。 （资料参考：21世纪经济报道《抗流 感药需求激增：市场"厮杀"升级，谁能抢占C位？》,2025.11.3) 今年，多款国产抗流感创新药密集获批上市，引发市场高度关注，2025年甚至被称为"国产流感创新 药元年"。有业内人士表示，国产流感创新药密集取得进展，是我国医药创新能力持续提升的必然结 果。这背后蕴藏着什么投资机遇？ （资料参考：证券日报《国产创新药破局 为应对流感提供"中国方 案"》，2025.11.12） 国产流感创新药商业化提速 2025年3月至7月，我国有三款抗流感创新药（玛舒拉沙韦片、昂拉地韦片、玛硒洛沙韦片）获批上 市，另有两款药物（玛氘诺沙韦、玛帕西沙韦）完成临床试验，已经提出了上市申请，预计不久将加 入市场竞争。专业人士分析称，目前国产创新药上市以后，销量在稳步提升，反映出这些产品在疗 效、安全性方面获得了认可。 （资料参考：央广 ...

百亿市场待重构，替代空间广阔 今年，多款国产抗流感创新药密集获批上市，引发市场高度关注，2025年甚至被称为"国产流感创新药 元年"。有业内人士表示，国产流感创新药密集取得进展，是我国医药创新能力持续提升的必然结果。 这背后蕴藏着什么投资机遇？（资料参考：证券日报《国产创新药破局 为应对流感提供"中国方 案"》，2025.11.12） 国产流感创新药商业化提速 2025年3月至7月，我国有三款抗流感创新药（玛舒拉沙韦片、昂拉地韦片、玛硒洛沙韦片）获批上市， 另有两款药物（玛氘诺沙韦、玛帕西沙韦）完成临床试验，已经提出了上市申请，预计不久将加入市场 竞争。专业人士分析称，目前国产创新药上市以后，销量在稳步提升，反映出这些产品在疗效、安全性 方面获得了认可。（资料参考：央广网《全国整体进入流感流行季 多款国产流感创新药密集上市》， 2025.11.21；36氪《围剿"流感神药"奥司他韦，药厂卷起"一次治疗"新战场》，2025.11.14） 突破进口药局限，实现多重优化 国产新药与进口流感药玛巴洛沙韦作用机制相同，都是通过抑制流感病毒的CAP帽子结构依赖性内切 酶，从而阻断病毒复制。值得关注的是，这批国产新药并非简 ...

尽管流感新药辈出，目前的国内抗流感药市场整体仍是奥司他韦与玛巴洛沙韦"双雄并立"。 不过，经典老药的颓势也渐显。在今年10月底的第十一批国家药品集采中，东阳光药业的奥司他韦意外 落选，由价格更低的其他仿制药产品取而代之。这意味着，在未来一年中，对奥司他韦颗粒剂已很熟悉 的家长们，在公立医院渠道很难再开出"可威"了。 （文章来源：南方都市报） | 通用名 | 商品名 | 获批时间 | 用法 | 适用人群 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玛舒拉沙韦片 | 伊速达 | 2025年3月 | 单次口服 | 既往健康的12岁及以上青 少年和成人单纯型甲型和乙 型流感患者 | | 昂拉地韦片 | 安容威 | 2025年5月 | 每日一次,连续服用5天 | 成人单纯型甲型流感患者 | | 玛硒洛沙韦片 | 济可舒 | 2025年7月 | 单次口服 | 既往健康的成人单纯型甲 型和乙型流感患者 | | | | | | 面方都市 | 2025年秋冬，流感流行期早于往年，且因主流毒株更换而显得更为来势汹汹。据中国疾控部门最新预 测，流感高峰预计将在12月中下旬到来，广东疾控最新预测是，广东流 ...

2025.12. 04 本文字数：1786，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 林志吟 根据中国疾控发布的2025年第48周中国流感监测周报，南、北方省份流感活动上升，全国共报告 1541起流感样病例暴发疫情。 第一财经记者根据中国流感监测周报统计的数据显示，从2025年11月3日以来，截至11月30日，全 国共报告流感样病例暴发疫情已达到4351起，其中3313起跟A(H3N2）流感有关，占比约76.14%。 而像奥司他韦这样的抗流感病毒药物是否已产生了耐药性？该问题近日也引发市场关注。 奥司他韦是否耐药了 根据中国流感监测周报，2025年第48周（2025年11月24日－2025年11月30日），南方省份哨点医 院报告的ILI（流感样病例）%为10.3%，高于前一周水平（7.8%），高于2022年、2023年和2024 年同期水平（3.2%、8.7%和3.5%）。 2025年第48周，北方省份哨点医院报告的ILI%为9.1%，高于前一周水平 （8.6%）， 高于2022 年、2023年和2024年同期水平（2.0%、7.3%和4.4%）。 近日中国疾控中心方面也预计，全国在12月上中旬流感达峰的可能性 ...

根据中国疾控发布的2025年第48周中国流感监测周报，南、北方省份流感活动上升，全国共报告1541起 流感样病例暴发疫情。 第一财经记者根据中国流感监测周报统计的数据显示，从2025年11月3日以来，截至11月30日，全国共 报告流感样病例暴发疫情已达到4351起，其中3313起跟A(H3N2）流感有关，占比约76.14%。 而像奥司他韦这样的抗流感病毒药物是否已产生了耐药性？该问题近日也引发市场关注。 奥司他韦是否耐药了 根据中国流感监测周报，2025年第48周（2025年11月24日－2025年11月30日），南方省份哨点医院报告 的ILI（流感样病例）%为10.3%，高于前一周水平（7.8%），高于2022年、2023年和2024年同期水平 （3.2%、8.7%和3.5%）。 对治疗A(H3N2）亚型的流感依旧有效。 根据中国流感监测周报，第48周，南北方省份流感样病例监测实验室检测结果显示，A（H3N2）亚型 检测数合计占比达到99.7%。 国家流感中心对2025年3月31日以来收检的部分流感病毒毒株进行耐药性分析，结果显示：在A 2025年第48周，北方省份哨点医院报告的ILI%为9.1%，高于前一 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 关注吸入制剂在呼吸疾病领域的突破 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2025年11月30日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 在呼吸疾病领域，如IPF、COPD等，吸入制剂+新靶点组合正取得更多积极的治疗效果。2025年6月10日，Insmed公布其 治疗PAH(肺动脉高压）新药TPIP（曲前列环素棕榈醇吸入粉剂）的临床2b期顶线数据，安慰剂校正的PVR较基线降低35%， LS均值比0.65（p＜0.001）。其冻干粉制剂的设计，不仅实现了用药的方便性，只需每日一次，而且治疗效果也优于曲前 列环素的口服品种。7月9日，默沙东宣布收购一家专注于呼吸系统疾病的生物制药公司Verona Pharma，总交易价值约为 100亿美元。通过此次收购，默沙东将获得一款用于治疗慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）的重磅新药Ohtuvayre（恩司芬群）， 这是一种针对磷酸二酯酶3和4（PDE3和PDE4）的首创选择性双重抑制剂。FDA于2024年6月批准Ohtuvayre用 ...

Core Insights - The flu season is currently peaking, with a significant increase in infection rates leading to a surge in medication demand. Unlike previous years, the market is now seeing a competition between imported drugs and a variety of newly launched domestic innovative flu medications [1][5][12] - The market for flu medications is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, potentially reaching a market size of 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [12] Market Dynamics - The flu medication market is experiencing a "new vs. old" battle, as multiple new domestic drugs enter the market, challenging the dominance of traditional medications like oseltamivir, which has seen its price drop to under 2 yuan per pill due to collective procurement [1][9] - The introduction of new antiviral drugs, such as RNA polymerase inhibitors, is changing the treatment landscape, with some new drugs priced similarly to imported options, thus increasing competition [8][10] Product Launches - Several innovative flu medications have been approved for clinical use in China, including: - Isodaz (Mashurashave tablets) by Qingfeng Pharmaceutical, targeting influenza A and B [7] - Anruwei (Angladi tablets) by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, the first global PB2 protein inhibitor for flu treatment [7] - Jikeshou (Maseilashave tablets) by Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical, another RNA polymerase inhibitor [7] - The first year of sales for these new drugs has shown significant growth, with Mabalosave achieving 630 million yuan in sales, marking an 800% increase [10] Consumer Behavior - There is a notable increase in the sales of flu medications, with oseltamivir's sales volume rising by 237% in a week, while new drugs like Mabalosave also saw an increase of 180% [8][10] - Despite the high price of new medications, awareness and adoption among consumers remain low, with less than 5% of those aware of their flu diagnosis opting for the new generation of drugs [10] Competitive Landscape - The influx of domestic pharmaceutical companies into the flu medication market is driven by the high certainty of market demand and relatively safe R&D prospects [13] - However, this has led to concerns about product homogeneity and potential price wars, as many companies pursue similar targets in drug development [13] Future Outlook - The flu medication market is expected to continue evolving, with ongoing innovations and potential price reductions as more products enter the market and negotiations for inclusion in national insurance schemes progress [11][12]

Core Insights - The flu season in China has started earlier than usual, with a significant increase in flu activity reported across multiple provinces [2][3] - Demand for antiviral medications has surged, with sales of Oseltamivir increasing by 4.5 times and other flu-related medications seeing similar spikes [4][3] - The market for antiviral drugs is becoming increasingly competitive, with new domestic products entering the market and challenging the long-standing dominance of Oseltamivir [5][7] Antiviral Drug Demand - The National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued multiple "orange alerts" for flu, indicating a rapid rise in flu cases, particularly in northern provinces [3] - Clinical testing for respiratory viruses has seen a 66% increase in orders, with a positive detection rate of 68.2% [3][4] - The demand for flu testing kits and antiviral medications has surged, with significant increases in sales reported [4] Market Dynamics - Oseltamivir has historically dominated the antiviral market in China, holding over 70% market share, but the expiration of its patent has led to a flood of generic alternatives [5] - Domestic competitors like Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical have maintained significant market shares, but growth is showing signs of fatigue due to increased competition [5][6] - New antiviral drugs targeting different mechanisms are being introduced, such as Maribavir and PB2 inhibitors, which are expected to intensify market competition [7][8] Future Outlook - The flu drug market is anticipated to become more competitive, with pricing strategies and distribution channels playing crucial roles in market share [8] - The introduction of new antiviral drugs is expected to lower prices and increase accessibility, potentially leading to a breakthrough in market penetration [8] - The CDC predicts that the peak of the flu season will occur between mid-December and early January, which may further influence demand for antiviral medications [3][9]

数据显示，2023年中国抗流感用药市场规模为107.4亿元，同比增长197.51%。据头豹研究院预测， 2024-2028年中国抗流感用药市场规模有望以年复合增长率20.2%持续增长，预计2028年，市场规模有望 达到269亿元。 谈及国内流感药的市场竞争格局，北京中医药大学卫生健康法学教授、博士生导师邓勇向21世纪经济报 道记者表示，奥司他韦仍为国内流感药物市场的第一大用药，占据超80%的市场份额。与此同时，玛巴 洛沙韦作为RNA聚合酶抑制剂的代表，凭借更佳的疗效和用药便利性，正加速抢占市场。而国内新药 今年也在密集上市，还有多款新药已申请上市，正冲击着当前的市场竞争格局。 当前，全国整体进入流感流行季，流感活动水平明显上升。监测数据显示，往年开始进入流感流行季的 时间一般都是在10-11月，个别年度也有9月份开始，流行高峰一般出现在12月中下旬和1月初。 与以往不同的是，2025年被称为"国产流感新药元年"，青峰医药的玛舒拉沙韦片、众生药业的昂拉地韦 片、济川药业与征祥医药合作开发的玛硒洛沙韦片，分别于2025年3月、5月和7月获批上市，患者在药 物治疗上有了更多选择。 流行性感冒（简称"流感"）是流感病 ...

Core Insights - The flu season in China is currently on the rise, with significant increases in flu activity levels reported, particularly in southern and northern provinces [4][5] - The Chinese antiviral flu medication market is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 197.51% [1] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for domestic flu medications, with several new drugs expected to be approved and available for patients [1][8] Market Overview - The flu medication market in China is dominated by Oseltamivir, which holds over 80% market share, while new entrants like Baloxavir Marboxil are gaining traction due to better efficacy and convenience [2][8] - The market is projected to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [1] Drug Approval and Launches - Several new flu medications have been approved for market entry, including: - Masuravir Tablets by Qingfeng Pharmaceutical, approved in March 2025 - Baloxavir Marboxil Tablets by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, approved in May 2025 - Marseloxavir Tablets by Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical, approved in July 2025 [1][10] - The initial pricing for these new drugs is generally above 300 yuan, but prices have been reduced to compete in the market as the flu season approaches [10] Supply Chain and Demand Dynamics - There is a noted supply-demand imbalance during peak flu seasons, leading to shortages of key medications like Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil [7] - Companies like Roche and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical are implementing strategies to ensure stable supply and meet the increased demand during the flu season [7] Competitive Landscape - Foreign pharmaceutical companies like Roche maintain a stronghold in the high-end market due to their technological advantages and brand influence, while domestic companies leverage cost advantages and local market knowledge to compete in the mid to low-end segments [11] - Domestic firms are encouraged to enhance R&D investments and innovate to meet specific market needs, such as developing pediatric formulations and low-dose options for the elderly [11]