证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 11 日 10 月，信用策略如何布局？ ——信用策略系列报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 拉长时间维度到 2025Q3，短端下沉策略仍然是相对占优的策略选择。2025Q3，10Y 国 债收益率从季度初的 1.64%调整至 9/30 的 1.86%（以中债国债到期收益率曲线列示的数据为 准），不同期限不同券种的信用债收益率在 2025Q3 也都跟随利率出现不同程度调整，持续的 下跌行情使得市场情绪趋向谨慎。2025Q3，不同券种的短端下沉策略组合均有正收益，3Y AAA-产业债子弹型策略也录得正收益，除此以外的其他策略对组合收益均有负向贡献，其中 城投债哑铃型、二级债哑铃型、银行永续债哑铃型和拉久期策略的亏损均达到了 1%以上。值 得注意的是，无论何种策略，在 9 月份或是三季度所能够获得的资本利得均为负值，在票息 保护本就相对较弱 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the first half of 2025, the market saw an increase in government bond yields, while credit bond yields fluctuated, leading to a compression of credit spreads, particularly in lower-rated bonds [2][8][11] - The overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of 2025 suggests that yields may follow government bonds downward, but supply could increase while demand weakens, posing a risk of widening credit spreads [2][30][35] - The report recommends focusing on city investment bonds with weakening supply, followed by financial bonds, as potential investment opportunities [2][30][39] Group 2 - For city investment bonds, the report highlights opportunities for spread compression in high-quality regional bonds, supported by policies aimed at alleviating credit risks [3][43][54] - In the industrial bond sector, the report suggests monitoring the recovery of spreads following the resolution of risk events related to state-owned enterprise bonds, as well as opportunities arising from debt collection policies [3][58][63] - The financial bond segment is expected to see a decrease in supply pressure for perpetual bonds, particularly due to the consolidation of rural commercial banks, which may present structural opportunities [3][67][76] Group 3 - The report notes that the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, with government bond net financing projected to be lower than the previous year, while industrial bonds may see a rise in supply [30][32][35] - Demand for credit bonds may weaken, leading to a potential widening of credit spreads, as the report anticipates a decrease in the attractiveness of bank deposits compared to bonds [33][35][36] - Historical data suggests that during periods of widening credit spreads, extending duration and focusing on lower-rated bonds have been effective strategies [36][37][39] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the city investment bond market is under strict regulatory scrutiny, particularly for lower-rated bonds, which may limit their issuance [54][57] - The industrial bond sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at supporting state-owned enterprises, particularly in real estate and construction [63][66] - The financial bond market is likely to experience a shift towards stronger credit profiles, especially in regions undergoing consolidation of rural commercial banks [72][76]