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信用债2025年半年度报告:供给分化,择木而栖
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-03 05:21
Group 1 - The report indicates that in the first half of 2025, the market saw an increase in government bond yields, while credit bond yields fluctuated, leading to a compression of credit spreads, particularly in lower-rated bonds [2][8][11] - The overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of 2025 suggests that yields may follow government bonds downward, but supply could increase while demand weakens, posing a risk of widening credit spreads [2][30][35] - The report recommends focusing on city investment bonds with weakening supply, followed by financial bonds, as potential investment opportunities [2][30][39] Group 2 - For city investment bonds, the report highlights opportunities for spread compression in high-quality regional bonds, supported by policies aimed at alleviating credit risks [3][43][54] - In the industrial bond sector, the report suggests monitoring the recovery of spreads following the resolution of risk events related to state-owned enterprise bonds, as well as opportunities arising from debt collection policies [3][58][63] - The financial bond segment is expected to see a decrease in supply pressure for perpetual bonds, particularly due to the consolidation of rural commercial banks, which may present structural opportunities [3][67][76] Group 3 - The report notes that the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, with government bond net financing projected to be lower than the previous year, while industrial bonds may see a rise in supply [30][32][35] - Demand for credit bonds may weaken, leading to a potential widening of credit spreads, as the report anticipates a decrease in the attractiveness of bank deposits compared to bonds [33][35][36] - Historical data suggests that during periods of widening credit spreads, extending duration and focusing on lower-rated bonds have been effective strategies [36][37][39] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the city investment bond market is under strict regulatory scrutiny, particularly for lower-rated bonds, which may limit their issuance [54][57] - The industrial bond sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at supporting state-owned enterprises, particularly in real estate and construction [63][66] - The financial bond market is likely to experience a shift towards stronger credit profiles, especially in regions undergoing consolidation of rural commercial banks [72][76]