普通股票策略领涨 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 操作评级 中信五风格-成长★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 权益市场风格 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 2026年1月12日 周度报告 截至2026/01/09当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南 华商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为5.06%、-0.15%、2.54%。 公募基金市场方面，近一周普通股票策略领涨，周度涨跌幅为 5.26%，中性策略产品跌多涨少；转债策略收益强于纯债，商 品方面贵金属ETF收益反弹，黄金ETF上涨2.91%，有色金 属ETF净值延续上行趋势。 中信五风格方面，上周成长风格领涨，周度涨跌幅为7.03%； 风格轮动图显示近期消费与金融风格相对强弱边际走强，周期 风格相对强弱动量小幅转弱。公募基金池方面，近一周消费与 金融风格基金平均表现跑赢基准，从基金风格系数走势来看市 场对成长与稳定风格偏移度有所回升；本周拥挤度指标环比下 降，周期与消费风格基金拥挤度提升至历史中高分位区间。 Barra因子：近一周流动性 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "congestion degree" indicator, which reflects the proportion of trading volume in a sector relative to the overall market, indicating whether a sector is popular or overheated [3][21][22] - It notes that in the long term, sectors in A-shares that experience "acceleration followed by volume" are likely to underperform in the following month, with exceptions observed during the 2020-2021 core asset era [3][22] - The report suggests that the effectiveness of volume-price logic is steadily increasing post-2023, making volume and technical indicators more significant [3][22] Group 2 - The medical device sector showed a robust growth in May, with a total bid amount of 13.43 billion yuan, representing a 69% year-on-year increase, and a total of 71.45 billion yuan for the first five months, up 72% year-on-year [5] - Domestic brands like Mindray and United Imaging have shown significant growth in bid amounts, with Mindray's total bid amount in May reaching 820 million yuan, a 56% increase year-on-year [5] - Import brands also saw rapid growth, with Philips and Siemens reporting year-on-year increases of 62% and 112% respectively in May [5] Group 3 - The report highlights the strong investment opportunities in the western infrastructure sector, with solid growth in fixed asset investment since 2024, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet [10] - It identifies key areas and major projects for investment, such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Tibet, and Xinjiang, which are expected to drive demand for infrastructure construction [10] - The report indicates that the central government's continued financial support and strategic planning will likely sustain the high level of infrastructure investment in the western regions [10] Group 4 - The report on Huahong Semiconductor indicates a positive outlook due to a new price increase cycle, with the company expected to leverage its strong pricing power to enhance profitability [29][30] - The new factory (9th plant) is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with an estimated future revenue space of 1.277 billion USD if operating at near full capacity [30] - The acquisition of Huali Micro is expected to enhance Huahong's competitive edge, with projections for revenue growth reaching 17.2 billion yuan by 2025 [31]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in the long term, A-share industries are likely to underperform within a month after experiencing "acceleration followed by volume release," with exceptions noted during the core asset era of 2020-2021, where the market showed "overheating followed by more overheating" [1][2][21] - The report emphasizes that the effectiveness of volume-price logic has been steadily increasing since 2023, making volume-price and technical aspects more important [2][21] - High congestion levels may indicate the initial bottom volume of a market, potentially signaling the start of a long-term trend, particularly evident in the TMT sector [1][7] Group 2 - The report identifies that the banking and military industries are suitable for observing acceleration and congestion signals to find selling points [3][24] - It highlights that the banking sector is characterized by stable dividends and lower volatility compared to resource sectors, relying on incremental funds and limited floating shares for slow bull market growth [24] - The military sector's investment logic has evolved, now incorporating military trade logic alongside previous factors such as technology civilianization and margin increases [24] Group 3 - The report analyzes the profit expectations and valuations across various industries, indicating that the overall A-share market is projected to have a net profit growth rate of -2.21% for 2024, with a PE ratio of 16.44 [26] - The report provides insights into the PB-ROE perspective, showing that the current PB for the entire A-share market is 1.52, with a historical median of 1.73, indicating a 16% current percentile [28] - It notes that the entrepreneurial board shows a higher PB of 3.69, with a current percentile of 13%, suggesting a significant valuation compared to historical levels [28]