来源：滚动播报 美联储官员势将在周三宣布连续第三次降息，但这一进程可能就此结束。对持续通胀的担忧已在美国央 行内部造成严重分歧，这可能致使美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔不会暗示明年初有任何进一步的行动。今 年秋季美联储两次降息，并在过去15个月中累计降息1.5个百分点，后续每一次进一步降息都将使得美 联储的基准利率更加靠近能够刺激经济活动的临界点——而许多官员正试图避免这种情况发生。一些官 员认为，目前的利率已经处于中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济增长。对于美联储紧缩程度的相反看 法，很可能导致再次出现决策分歧，一些分析师甚至预测会有多达三名官员持不同意见。在缺乏新的经 济数据的情况下，鲍威尔要达成共识的任务只会更加困难——这是政府停摆持续整个10月和11月大部分 时间的连锁反应。官方的11月劳动力市场数据要到12月16日才会公布，通胀数据还在两天之后。美联储 将于当地时间周三下午2时（北京时间周四凌晨3点）在华盛顿公布利率决议，同时还将发布委员会声明 和最新经济预测。鲍威尔将于30分钟后召开记者会。 ...

格隆汇11月12日｜美联储博斯蒂克宣布，他计划在明年二月他的当前任期结束时退休，美联储主席鲍威 尔的任期将于五月结束。59岁的博斯蒂克于2017年开始掌舵亚特兰大联储，他是首位领导地区联储银行 的非裔美国人。博斯蒂克今年一直直言不讳地谈论持续通胀的风险，敦促他的同事们在降低利率时保持 谨慎，并警惕关税的潜在影响。虽然他今年没有对货币政策决定进行投票，但博斯蒂克表示，他支持美 联储在九月和十月的两次降息。然而，他强调，在通胀仍高于央行2%的目标时，货币政策应保持限制 性。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Anna Paulsen supports two additional interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy amidst economic uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Paulsen anticipates that the economy will continue to grow above trend levels in the third quarter, suggesting a resilient economic environment [1] - However, she notes that the foundation supporting this growth is relatively narrow, raising concerns about future demand sources [1] Monetary Policy Considerations - Paulsen believes that monetary policy should disregard the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases, arguing that there are no conditions that would allow tariff-induced price hikes to evolve into sustained inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Anna Paulsen supports two additional interest rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy despite current economic conditions [1] Economic Growth - Paulsen anticipates that the economy will continue to grow above trend levels in the third quarter, suggesting resilience in economic performance [1] - However, she notes that the foundation supporting this growth is relatively narrow, raising concerns about future demand sources [1] Monetary Policy - Paulsen believes that monetary policy should disregard the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases, arguing that there are no conditions that would allow tariff-induced price hikes to evolve into sustained inflation [1]

来源：滚动播报 美联储威廉姆斯：预计关税不会引发持续通胀。 ...

美联储穆萨勒姆表示，现在决定是否在下个月的会议上降息还为时过早。当被问及下个月是否有理由降 息50个基点时，穆萨勒姆表示，从他的角度来看，这将"不受当前经济状况和经济前景的支持"。穆萨勒 姆称，一方面，"数据开始给我们一些迹象，表明是否存在持续通胀的可能性。"与此同时，他提到 了"劳动力市场的下行风险"。穆萨勒姆表示，美国经济增长放缓，加上关税对企业利润率构成压力，可 能会威胁到迄今为止表现良好的劳动力市场。他表示："我在权衡这两方面的因素，当我们在两个目标 之间看到紧张关系时，就需要采取一种平衡的策略。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts expect that the meeting minutes will suggest that the "interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," aligning with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statements during congressional hearings [1] Group 1 - Powell laid the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, contingent on the absence of signs that tariff-induced price increases are leading to sustained inflation and that the economy continues to create sufficient job opportunities to prevent a rapid rise in unemployment [1] - Citigroup analysts indicated that the "wait-and-see" period may end by late summer [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：避免持续通胀将取决于关税的规模、时间和通胀预期。 ...