美元/日元 美元/日元昨日震荡上行，突破156.00关口并刷新11个交易日高位，现汇价交投于155.70附近。除美联储 官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期对汇价构成了一定的支撑外，日本首相高市早苗反对加息的 报道也是支撑汇价攀升的重要因素。今日关注156.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在155.00附近。 美元/加元 美元/加元昨日震荡上行，刷新12个交易日高位，现汇价交投于1.3680附近。美元指数在美联储官员鹰 派言论降温降息预期和良好经济数据的支撑下走高是支撑汇价收涨的主要原因。此外，原油价格回落和 贸易不确定激发的避险情绪也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3750附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.3600附近。 责任编辑：陈平 今日需要关注的数据有，德国第四季度季调后GDP季率修正值、德国3月Gfk消费者信心指数和欧元区1 月调和CPI年率。 黄金/美元 黄金昨日震荡下行，一度失守5100关口，现汇价交投于5210附近。除获利回吐对黄金构成了一定的打压 外，时段内美联储官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期也是施压黄金回落的重要因素。不过，地 缘紧张局势和贸易不确定的担忧限制了黄金的回调空间。今日 ...

这一观点暗示，鉴于通胀仍徘徊在美联储2%的目标之上，作为今年美联储政策委员会的一名有投票权 的委员，卡什卡利短期内可能不愿支持进一步降息。 卡什卡利在北达科他州的一个商业会议上说："我猜我们目前的货币政策相当接近中性水平。" 这一观点暗示，鉴于通胀仍徘徊在美联储2%的目标之上，作为今年美联储政策委员会的一名有投票权 的委员，卡什卡利短期内可能不愿支持进一步降息。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利称，美联储目前的利率设定可能接近一个既不刺激也不抑制经 济的中性水平。 卡什卡利在北达科他州的一个商业会议上说："我猜我们目前的货币政策相当接近中性水平。" 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利称，美联储目前的利率设定可能接近一个既不刺激也不抑制经 济的中性水平。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, is in a challenging position as it seeks to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation [1] Group 1 - Charlie Ripley from Allianz Investment Management suggests that the upcoming interest rate cut may be one of the last implemented by Chairman Powell, indicating significant progress in terms of inflation [1] - Despite not having returned to neutral interest rate levels, the progress made on inflation is described as considerable [1] - The next leader of the Federal Reserve will face similar challenges in balancing these economic factors, especially with voting members leaning towards a tighter market stance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a third consecutive interest rate cut, but this process may come to an end due to internal divisions over persistent inflation concerns [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve has cut rates twice this fall and has reduced rates by a total of 1.5 percentage points over the past 15 months [1] - Further rate cuts will bring the Fed's benchmark rate closer to a level that stimulates economic activity, which many officials are trying to avoid [1] Group 2: Internal Divisions - There are significant divisions among Fed officials regarding the current level of interest rates, with some believing they are already at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [1] - Analysts predict that up to three officials may hold differing opinions on the Fed's tightening stance [1] Group 3: Economic Data and Decision-Making - The lack of new economic data complicates Chairman Jerome Powell's task of reaching a consensus among officials [1] - The official labor market data for November will not be released until December 16, and inflation data will be available two days later [1] Group 4: Upcoming Announcements - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM local time, along with a committee statement and updated economic forecasts [1] - Jerome Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes after the announcement [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its final two-day meeting of the year, with a significant portion of members potentially opposing a rate cut [2] - Chairman Jerome Powell appears prepared to push for a rate cut, aiming to reduce dissent among committee members by signaling a cautious approach to future easing [3] - The decision to cut rates may hinge on recent assessments of the labor market and inflation, with Powell noting signs of labor market loosening and a lack of significant inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divide among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some expressing concerns about persistent inflation and the adequacy of current rates to drive it down [4] - The upcoming release of employment and inflation data post-meeting could significantly reshape economic outlooks, as recent job growth has been strong but accompanied by rising unemployment [4] - The debate centers on whether slowing job growth reflects weak labor demand, supporting a rate cut, or is due to a contraction in labor supply, opposing a cut [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's chief economist Nathan Sheets leans towards not cutting rates, indicating a close call with no catastrophic outcomes expected from either decision [5] - The challenge for Powell will be to set policy thresholds for January based on more comprehensive data available at that time, complicating the decision-making process [5] - The proximity of current rates to the "neutral level" raises questions about the rationale for maintaining stability unless inflation declines or the labor market weakens significantly [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to release new economic forecasts, which may reveal members' expectations for rate cuts through 2026, amidst political pressures from President Trump [6] - Trump's attempts to influence the Fed's composition could lead to a more politically driven approach to rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [7] - Analysts suggest that a more politicized Fed may pursue aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to conflicts with committee members' tolerance levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Simkus stated that interest rates are currently at a neutral level [1] Group 1 - The ECB is assessing the current interest rate environment and its implications for the economy [1] - Simkus emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects the ECB's ongoing evaluation of economic conditions and inflation targets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently at a neutral interest rate level, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sufficient flexibility in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that interest rates are at a neutral level [1] - The need for flexibility in monetary policy is highlighted as crucial for the current economic environment [1]