瑞银展望-中国房地产何时见底 20251117 摘要 中国房地产市场正经历从新房到二手房再到租房的转变，租金需求增加 但供给过剩依然存在，一线城市租售比低，购房者面临房价不涨即亏损 的风险。 保障房大量供应分流商品房和租赁市场，十四五规划计划建设 870 万套 保障房，每年约占新房成交的 20%，对商品住宅市场形成压力。 新发展模式包括好房子、优化保障房供给和取消预售制度，取消预售将 使民营开发商难以维持地产开发，高端豪宅需求或增加但整体项目减少。 中国内地高端零售业有恢复迹象，受益于股市向好、金价上涨及国产品 牌崛起，购物中心供给预计减少，提升商场话语权和租金收入。 香港住宅租金过去两年每年增长约 5%-6%，主要因高才通和优才通政 策吸引人才，当前租售比约为 3.7%，按揭利率降至 3.3%-3.4%。 香港写字楼市场需求增加，金融业占主导，中环写字楼租金预计 2026 年见底回稳，但其他地区可能继续下跌，零售业面临国产品牌、深圳退 税和电商冲击。 稳定房地产市场需国家收储以减轻保障房供给对租金的影响，并降低按 揭利率，房价变化是判断市场走势的关键指标，关系居民财富和金融风 险。 Q&A 中国内地房地产市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand houses is higher than the same period in 2020, while both new and second-hand house signed areas show significant year-on-year declines [1][18]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread is a key observation point for total demand stabilization in both new and second-hand housing markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investment, suggesting that the adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.2 times, while the top five real estate companies have an average adjusted PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing signed area has expanded, with the current levels being lower than the past four years [8][10]. - The signed area for new houses in sample cities shows a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year signed area for second-hand houses has turned negative, with a decline of 49% compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The average viewing numbers for second-hand houses in 12 sample cities have decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in market activity [4][42]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 shows a year-on-year decline of 9%, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [21]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a tightening market [4][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the turnover cycle for unsold properties have increased compared to July, suggesting a growing backlog in the market [31][34]. - The liquidity outlook suggests a tightening in macro-level liquidity, which may impact market conditions moving forward [48].

Core Insights - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 0.5% month-over-month decline in existing home sales for April 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, representing a 2% decrease year-over-year [1] - Despite the sales slowdown, the median sales price of existing homes rose by 1.8% year-over-year to $414,000, marking a historical high for April and the 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year increases [1] - The inventory of existing homes surged to 1.45 million units in April, a 9% month-over-month increase and a 20.8% year-over-year rise, the highest level in five years [1] Sales and Pricing Trends - The average listing time for properties in April was 29 days, down from 36 days in March but higher than 26 days in the same month last year [2] - The share of first-time homebuyers in overall sales increased to 34% in April, up from 32% in March and 33% year-over-year, although the annual average for first-time buyers remains at a historical low of 24% [2] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was reported at 6.81%, slightly up from 6.76% the previous week but lower than 7.02% a year ago [2] Regional and Property Type Analysis - The median sales price for single-family homes rose by 1.7% to $418,000, while sales of single-family homes were at an annualized rate of 3.63 million, down 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year [2] - The sales of condominiums and co-ops were at an annualized rate of 370,000, reflecting a 2.6% month-over-month decline and a 7.5% year-over-year decrease, with a median price increase of 1.4% to $370,100 [2] - Regional price trends showed increases in the Northeast and Midwest, while slight declines were observed in the South and West [1]