Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, highlighting significant challenges and potential shifts in consumer behavior [1][3]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from new homes to second-hand homes and now to rental properties, with increasing rental demand but persistent oversupply issues [1][3]. - The supply of affordable housing is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing and rental markets, with the 14th Five-Year Plan aiming to construct 8.7 million affordable housing units, accounting for about 20% of new home transactions annually [1][3]. - New development models include optimizing affordable housing supply and abolishing the pre-sale system, which may hinder private developers' ability to sustain real estate projects [1][3]. - High-end retail in mainland China shows signs of recovery, benefiting from a favorable stock market and rising gold prices, while shopping center supply is expected to decrease, enhancing rental income potential [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, residential rents have increased by approximately 5%-6% annually over the past two years, driven by policies attracting talent, with the current rent-to-sale ratio around 3.7% [1][9][10]. - The demand for office space in Hong Kong is rising, particularly in the financial sector, with expectations for Central office rents to stabilize by 2026, although other areas may continue to decline [1][12]. Summary by Sections Mainland China Real Estate Market - The rental market is experiencing increased demand, but oversupply remains a critical issue, particularly in first-tier cities where the rent-to-sale ratio is low [1][3]. - The introduction of a large number of affordable housing units is expected to pressure the commercial housing market [1][3]. - The cancellation of the pre-sale system could lead to a decrease in overall project numbers, despite potential growth in high-end luxury demand [1][3]. Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The high-end retail sector in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as stock market performance and gold price increases [1][5][6]. - The residential rental market has seen consistent growth, attributed to government policies attracting skilled talent [1][9]. - The office market is expected to see increased demand, particularly in Central, while other regions may face continued rental declines [1][12]. Commercial Real Estate Outlook - The outlook for commercial real estate in both mainland China and Hong Kong varies, with opportunities arising from the recovery of high-end retail and the rise of domestic brands [1][6]. - The anticipated reduction in shopping center supply in mainland China is expected to enhance the bargaining power of existing malls, potentially increasing rental income [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, the retail sector faces challenges from domestic brand competition, tax policies, and e-commerce impacts, despite short-term improvements in high-end retail [1][13].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand houses is higher than the same period in 2020, while both new and second-hand house signed areas show significant year-on-year declines [1][18]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread is a key observation point for total demand stabilization in both new and second-hand housing markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investment, suggesting that the adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.2 times, while the top five real estate companies have an average adjusted PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing signed area has expanded, with the current levels being lower than the past four years [8][10]. - The signed area for new houses in sample cities shows a significant year-on-year decrease of 40% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year signed area for second-hand houses has turned negative, with a decline of 49% compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The average viewing numbers for second-hand houses in 12 sample cities have decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in market activity [4][42]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to September 2025 shows a year-on-year decline of 9%, while the average transaction price has increased by 17% [21]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a tightening market [4][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the turnover cycle for unsold properties have increased compared to July, suggesting a growing backlog in the market [31][34]. - The liquidity outlook suggests a tightening in macro-level liquidity, which may impact market conditions moving forward [48].

Core Insights - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 0.5% month-over-month decline in existing home sales for April 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, representing a 2% decrease year-over-year [1] - Despite the sales slowdown, the median sales price of existing homes rose by 1.8% year-over-year to $414,000, marking a historical high for April and the 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year increases [1] - The inventory of existing homes surged to 1.45 million units in April, a 9% month-over-month increase and a 20.8% year-over-year rise, the highest level in five years [1] Sales and Pricing Trends - The average listing time for properties in April was 29 days, down from 36 days in March but higher than 26 days in the same month last year [2] - The share of first-time homebuyers in overall sales increased to 34% in April, up from 32% in March and 33% year-over-year, although the annual average for first-time buyers remains at a historical low of 24% [2] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was reported at 6.81%, slightly up from 6.76% the previous week but lower than 7.02% a year ago [2] Regional and Property Type Analysis - The median sales price for single-family homes rose by 1.7% to $418,000, while sales of single-family homes were at an annualized rate of 3.63 million, down 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year [2] - The sales of condominiums and co-ops were at an annualized rate of 370,000, reflecting a 2.6% month-over-month decline and a 7.5% year-over-year decrease, with a median price increase of 1.4% to $370,100 [2] - Regional price trends showed increases in the Northeast and Midwest, while slight declines were observed in the South and West [1]