第 47 周成交震荡，市场稳定有助推进新发展模式 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 本报告导读： 上周地产成交涨跌互现。上周政策面继续保持平静，市场成交震荡为主，年底前市 场有望保持稳定，新发展模式有利优质房企。 投资要点： 票 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 [table_Authors] 2025-11-24 [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交涨跌互现。上周政策面继续保持平静，市场成交 震荡为主，我们判断年底前市场有望继续保持稳定，新发展模式持 续推进有利优质房企。 上周大中城市新房成交环比继续回升：2025 年第 47 周 30 大中城市 新房成交面积为 194 万平，环比前一周 22.5%，同比 2024 年-23.0%。 其中一线城市销售面积 42 万平，环比前一周-4.4%，同比 2024 年- 49%。二线城市销售面积 118 万平，环比前一周 45.7%，同比 2024 年-8%。三线城市销售面积 34 万平，环比前一周 ...

他指出："下一步，就会进入到房企债务重构、市场出清，以及新的房地产开发模式和国家新的住房建 设体系建设的第二阶段。" "十四五"时期，中国房地产市场经历了深度调整，目前房地产到了一个什么阶段？"十五五"时期，房地 产市场将怎么走？ 近日，宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春在观察者网《思路打开》节目中表示："经过四年的调 整，我认为房地产已经摆脱了最危险的时期。" "过去四年，国家一方面通过'保交楼'防止房地产的风险向社会蔓延，另外一方面通过白名单制度，通 过对流动性的关注，防止房地产深度调整向金融体系进行蔓延。这两个目标完成得很好。"刘元春说。 刘元春表示，这个阶段应当有一系列的政策出台，这些政策的出台会帮助房地产快速触底，"但是我们 一定要认识到，这个过程是很复杂的，不是简单的像买青菜萝卜一样，少了就涨，多了就跌。并且相应 政策的出台也涉及到大量的利益。" 刘元春认为，房地产底部调整的阶段会经一段时期，但它也恰恰是我们构建房地产新发展模式、构建中 国特色住房保障体系的最佳时刻。 "只要我们能做出一些突破性的调整，那么中国房地产进入到一个新的健康的阶段是可期的，而不是像 国外一些机构所认为的，还要在底部爬行 ...

瑞银展望-中国房地产何时见底 20251117 摘要 中国房地产市场正经历从新房到二手房再到租房的转变，租金需求增加 但供给过剩依然存在，一线城市租售比低，购房者面临房价不涨即亏损 的风险。 保障房大量供应分流商品房和租赁市场，十四五规划计划建设 870 万套 保障房，每年约占新房成交的 20%，对商品住宅市场形成压力。 新发展模式包括好房子、优化保障房供给和取消预售制度，取消预售将 使民营开发商难以维持地产开发，高端豪宅需求或增加但整体项目减少。 中国内地高端零售业有恢复迹象，受益于股市向好、金价上涨及国产品 牌崛起，购物中心供给预计减少，提升商场话语权和租金收入。 香港住宅租金过去两年每年增长约 5%-6%，主要因高才通和优才通政 策吸引人才，当前租售比约为 3.7%，按揭利率降至 3.3%-3.4%。 香港写字楼市场需求增加，金融业占主导，中环写字楼租金预计 2026 年见底回稳，但其他地区可能继续下跌，零售业面临国产品牌、深圳退 税和电商冲击。 稳定房地产市场需国家收储以减轻保障房供给对租金的影响，并降低按 揭利率，房价变化是判断市场走势的关键指标，关系居民财富和金融风 险。 Q&A 中国内地房地产市 ...

第 45 周成交回落，新发展模式有利行业健康发展 本报告导读： 上周地产成交回落。上周政策面平静，年底前政策预期仍然存在，行业新发展模式 正逐步构建过程中，有利于品质房企获得更好发展空间。维持行业"优于大市"评级。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.09 2025-11-10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 告 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回落。上周政策面平静，年底前政策预期仍然存 在，预计未来市场总体以稳为主，行业新发展模式正逐步构建过程 中，有利于品质房企获得更好发展空间，维持行业"优于大市"评级。 上周大中城市新房成交环比回落：2025 年第 45 周 30 大中城市新房 成交面积为 157 万平，环比前一周-23.4%，同比 2024 年-34.1%。其 中一线城市销售面积 42 万平，环比前一周-20.0%，同比 2024 年- 38%。二线城市销售面积 84 万平，环比前一周-21.3%，同比 2024 年 -32%。三线城市销售面积 31 万平，环比前 ...

Core Insights - The seminar organized by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute focused on the current real estate market and policy analysis, emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends and Challenges - The real estate industry is urged to align with national strategic goals and to view its positioning through a new lens, considering the macro environment and market risks [1] - The industry is facing challenges that require a clear understanding of development trends, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" serving as a key guideline for mitigating risks [1] - There is a consensus among industry leaders on the need for innovation and breakthroughs during the transformation process [2] Group 2: Development Models and Strategies - The core of achieving high-quality development lies in constructing a new development model, which includes transitioning from expansion to improving existing stock, shifting product concepts from merely providing housing to enhancing living quality, and balancing sales and rental markets [2] - Companies are encouraged to reshape their development models, building products, and corporate DNA to embrace long-termism and collaborative growth [2] Group 3: Cross-Industry Integration - The importance of cross-industry integration was highlighted, with examples such as the "West Shanghai Digital Incubation Base" project that combines various sectors to revitalize existing assets [3] - The need for national-level financial institutions to address inventory issues and improve market supply-demand relationships was emphasized [3] Group 4: Operational Improvements and Financial Strategies - Companies are advised to enhance operational capabilities, adopt market-driven cost management, and explore asset securitization through REITs [4] - The industry is encouraged to move away from high-leverage models and ensure that financial tools serve to empower the real economy, focusing on quality development that benefits the public [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of public REITs in China is gaining momentum, with the government actively promoting the development of the market to attract diverse investments and enhance market vitality [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - China's public REITs began in June 2021, with 74 REITs listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen as of September 17, 2023, and a total market capitalization exceeding 220 billion RMB [8]. - The first batch of REITs included 9 funds, and the market has since expanded to include various asset types, with industrial park REITs being the most prevalent [8]. - The upcoming listing of foreign commercial facility REITs, such as CapitaLand's, indicates strong investor interest, with an IPO subscription rate exceeding 500 times [8]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued guidelines to cultivate the REIT market, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure projects and encouraging local governments and state-owned enterprises to establish REITs [4][5]. - The NDRC aims to broaden the investment scope of REITs to include railways, ports, and renewable energy, thereby attracting more private sector participation [5]. Group 3: Investment Performance - The average distribution yield of public REITs in China is projected to reach 6.37% by the end of 2024, surpassing Japan's 5.15% [10]. - Renewable energy-related REITs are expected to achieve a distribution yield of 11.55%, highlighting the potential for stable returns in this sector [10]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth of the REIT market, challenges remain, including high vacancy rates in commercial properties due to over-investment and shifts in consumer behavior towards online shopping [9]. - The REIT model in China is not a quick fix for the country's bad debt issues, as significant real estate inventory remains to be addressed [12]. - The market's ability to sustain required yields and the potential for conflicts of interest in the REIT structure are ongoing concerns [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Kaisa Group Holdings Limited has reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan and successfully delivering 12 projects, amidst a challenging industry environment [1] Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The company emphasizes "stable delivery, optimized structure, and new expansion" as its strategic focus, aligning with national policies aimed at ensuring housing delivery and promoting transformation [1] - Kaisa's revenue from non-property sales reached a record high of approximately 44%, indicating a successful transition towards diversified business models [1][4] Group 2: Quality Delivery and Construction - Kaisa prioritizes "delivery assurance and quality" as its main task, responding to national standards for quality housing by delivering over 5,000 units across key cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [2] - All delivered projects adhere to green, healthy, and smart design principles, enhancing construction quality and meeting modern living demands [2] Group 3: Land Reserves and Urban Renewal - As of June 30, 2025, Kaisa's land reserves total approximately 20.75 million square meters, with 61% located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, providing a strong competitive advantage [3] - The company has over 100 urban renewal projects covering about 31 million square meters, which are expected to contribute to future development through continuous resource transformation [3] Group 4: Cultural and Commercial Integration - Kaisa is advancing its dual-core strategy as a "city public service provider and quality life operator," focusing on cultural and commercial integration to create new growth areas [4] - The company has successfully hosted events like the "Mei" Good Times concert, enhancing urban cultural vibrancy and economic activity through innovative consumption scenarios [4] - Kaisa is also expanding into the pet economy and elderly care services, aiming to provide comprehensive experiences for diverse demographic groups [4]

Group 1: Economic Planning and Strategy - The Politburo meeting announced the convening of the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a strategic transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan[1] - The meeting emphasized the complexity and variability of the development environment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for a robust economic foundation and long-term positive trends[1] Group 2: Key Economic Focus Areas - Promoting price stabilization is crucial, as weak overall price levels hinder internal circulation and affect corporate profitability, investment, and consumer spending[2] - The strategy to deepen and expand domestic demand is essential, with a focus on enhancing consumer contributions to economic growth amid external pressures[4] - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with recommendations to support strategic emerging industries and optimize the business environment to foster new economic drivers[4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy and Challenges - The meeting acknowledged a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5%[5] - Structural issues were identified, including discrepancies between nominal and actual growth rates, and challenges in demand and supply dynamics, indicating a need for targeted policy interventions[5] - The emphasis on flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies aims to address both external pressures and domestic structural challenges[6] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Measures - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance, with 2.61 trillion yuan issued in the first half, representing 49.1% of the annual quota, but still below the three-year average of 58.68%[8] - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential for interest rate cuts to stimulate microeconomic activity, particularly for small and micro enterprises[9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the efficiency of fiscal spending, shifting from investment-heavy to a balanced approach that includes consumer spending[8] Group 5: Consumer Demand and Service Sector - The meeting proposed actions to boost consumption, particularly in the service sector, recognizing the need to address supply shortages and enhance service offerings[10] - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies aims to increase disposable income and consumer willingness, reflecting a shift towards a more human-centered approach in consumption policies[12] Group 6: Market Competition and Structural Reforms - The meeting reiterated the need to optimize market competition and address "involution" in industries, which has contributed to low price levels and weak corporate profits[13] - Emphasis was placed on the orderly exit of outdated production capacity and the need for a legal and market-based governance system to manage competition effectively[14]

房地产行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 政策重心或从短期刺激转向新发展模式的 探索 核心观点 ⚫ 7.30 政治局会议未直接提及房地产，而是继续重点强调城市更新，我们认为政策重 心或从短期刺激转向新发展模式探索。房地产市场数据自 5 月以来已全面走弱，但 相较此前政治局会议，此次会议并未直接提及房地产，而是强调"落实好中央城市 工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。结合此前召开的中央城市工作会议强调 "城 市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段"，结合 《关于持续 推进城市更新行动的意见》等，表明未来以存量优化为主，如稳步推进存量房收 储、城中村改造等，严控增量推进"好房子"，大拆大建快速投放资金的概率不 大。 政策重心或从短期刺激转向新发展模式的探索。 另外值得强调的是，此次在风险方面，没有直接提及房地产，而是更多提及了对政 府债务风险的化解，这或许说明此前房地产引发的金融风险、保交楼风险、房企债 务风险、房价大幅下跌风险等在最近两年得到了缓解，监管在一定程度上肯定了当 前房地产市场相对平稳的状态，短期刺激的迫切性降低。 ⚫ "高质量开展城市更新"重点关注城中村和危旧房改造，我们认为目前改造方案和 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, focusing on GDP growth, internal and external demand, and government policies impacting economic development [1][2][3][23]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2%, with a nominal GDP growth rate slowing to 3.9%, indicating price pressures and declining industrial capacity utilization [1][3]. 2. **Internal Demand Trends**: Both consumption and fixed asset investment are on a downward trend, with June retail sales growth dropping to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, and fixed asset investment growth falling to 2.8% [1][4][5]. 3. **Government Role**: The government plays a crucial role in economic development, with significant investment in equipment and tools, and broad infrastructure growth at 8.9% [1][6]. 4. **External Demand Dynamics**: Despite increased tariffs from the U.S., China's exports maintained high growth, with Q2 export growth reaching 7.5%, attributed to currency fluctuations and export diversion strategies [1][7][8]. 5. **Policy Focus for H2**: The economic outlook for the second half of the year anticipates increased pressure on internal demand, with policy expectations centered on real estate and consumption [1][10][23]. Additional Important Content 1. **Urban Development**: The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized stable development, human-centered policies, and high-quality growth, shifting focus from expansion to improving existing urban areas [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Investment Issues**: Real estate investment is facing accelerated decline, with slow implementation of related policies and limited new investment in affordable housing [1][11][15][16]. 3. **Consumer Subsidy Impact**: The national subsidy program has seen a temporary halt in some areas due to rapid fund usage, affecting consumer spending in sectors like home appliances [1][17][18]. 4. **U.S. Import Trends**: U.S. import growth is expected to slow down, which may negatively impact China's export performance in the latter half of the year [1][19][20][23]. 5. **Stock and Bond Market Outlook**: The outlook for stocks remains positive for dividend assets, while bond yields are expected to remain low. The dollar index is projected to rebound in Q3, putting pressure on the RMB [1][25]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call records, highlighting the current economic landscape, government interventions, and future expectations for the Chinese economy.