房地产产业链条长、涉及面广，事关人民群众切身利益和经济社会发展大局。中央经济工作会议提出着 力稳定房地产市场，并明确去库存的政策方向，明年房地产库存如何去化备受关注。 在需求端，由于房地产市场在不同城市存在分化，要充分释放居民的刚性和改善性需求，仍需因城施策 采取更多有针对性的措施。市场普遍认为，影响一线城市住房消费的不合理限制有望进一步松绑，其他 城市仍将以购房补贴和住房公积金政策为主。其中，作为提振住房消费的重要金融支持政策，公积金政 策的支持力度将随着公积金制度改革的深化进一步加大，未来改革举措可考虑提高公积金贷款最高额 度、降低首付和利率、支持异地互认互贷、支持家庭代际互助、支持提取公积金用于首付、扩大提取使 用范围等，从而帮助居民降低购房成本，促进住房消费。此外，为降低购房者的贷款负担，房贷利率仍 有进一步调降空间，甚至关于房贷利率补贴政策可能性探讨最近也受到关注。 今年以来，随着控增量、优存量等房地产政策措施持续发挥作用，房地产去库存稳步推进，全国商品房 待售面积自3月以来已经连续9个月减少。不过，成效背后亦有隐忧。截至11月末，全国商品房待售面积 的绝对规模仍超7.5亿平方米，叠加二手房市场挂牌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively reducing real estate inventory as a key measure to stabilize the real estate market in the coming year, highlighting the need for coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [1][4]. Group 1: Inventory Reduction Strategies - The national inventory of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing for nine consecutive months since March, yet it still exceeds 750 million square meters as of the end of November, indicating significant inventory pressure [1]. - Revitalizing existing stock through the acquisition of surplus housing for affordable housing is a crucial strategy. This approach not only accelerates inventory reduction but also alleviates financial pressure on some real estate companies [2]. - The progress of the stock acquisition policy has been slow due to challenges such as funding sources, pricing mechanisms, and project selection criteria. Future efforts will focus on optimizing related policies to enhance local government autonomy in acquisition [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Measures - The shift in urban development from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock necessitates a focus on quality housing rather than merely increasing supply. This includes limiting land supply in high-inventory areas to prevent exacerbating the inventory issue [2]. - The construction of high-quality housing is expected to stimulate demand for upgrading and improving living conditions, with an emphasis on orderly development to avoid short-term disruptions to existing inventory [2]. Group 3: Demand-Side Measures - The real estate market shows significant differentiation across cities, requiring targeted measures to unleash residents' rigid and improvement-driven housing demands. Policies may include loosening restrictions in first-tier cities and providing subsidies and housing fund support in others [3]. - Financial support policies, particularly regarding housing funds, are anticipated to strengthen, potentially including higher loan limits, lower down payments and interest rates, and expanded usage of funds to lower purchasing costs [3]. - The ongoing urbanization process is expected to continue driving the demand for housing among new urban residents, while the potential for upgrading existing housing remains substantial due to rising living standards [4].

Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs marks a significant expansion of China's REITs market, transitioning from infrastructure to commercial real estate, indicating a new phase of "dual-wheel drive" development [1][2][3] - This initiative is a key measure to implement the new "National Nine Articles" policy aimed at promoting high-quality development of the REITs market, facilitating equity financing for commercial real estate [1][3] Market Development - The commercial real estate REITs pilot is seen as a natural progression, building on nearly five years of experience with infrastructure REITs, which have established a mature regulatory and operational framework [2][3] - As of November 27, 2025, 77 REITs products have been listed, with a cumulative financing scale of 207 billion yuan and a total market value of approximately 220.1 billion yuan, demonstrating the feasibility of the REITs model in China [2] Policy Framework - The pilot's introduction reflects a high degree of policy coherence, aligning with the new "National Nine Articles" and the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan," which supports the issuance of REITs for commercial real estate projects [3][4] - The strategic significance of the pilot is highlighted by its potential to reshape the real estate development model, moving from high-leverage, high-turnover sales to long-term operations and professional asset management [3][4] Asset Management and Market Functionality - REITs are expected to enhance liquidity in the commercial real estate sector, converting large amounts of stagnant assets into standardized financial products that can be traded in the capital market [4][5] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs will provide investors with new asset allocation options characterized by stable cash flows, catering to diverse investment needs [5][6] Regulatory Framework - The pilot's design emphasizes a market-oriented and legal framework, ensuring continuity and stability in regulations, which will facilitate a smooth integration into the existing market system [5][6] - Clear asset admission standards have been established to ensure that underlying assets are mature and of high quality, thereby protecting investor interests and setting a benchmark for high-quality issuance [6][7] Risk Management and Oversight - A comprehensive regulatory and risk prevention network has been established, delineating responsibilities among regulatory bodies, self-regulatory organizations, and fund managers to ensure effective oversight [7][8] - The dual-track development model aims to provide comprehensive financial services across key economic sectors, with infrastructure REITs focusing on public assets and commercial real estate REITs enhancing urban commercial spaces [8][9] Future Outlook - The dual-track strategy is expected to foster a more diverse and resilient REITs market, with potential expansions into new asset types such as data centers, logistics, and affordable rental housing [9][10] - This evolution will enrich China's capital market product offerings and cultivate local asset management institutions, driving the real estate industry towards a more refined, financialized, and sustainable development path [10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as 'Outperform' for the next 12-18 months, indicating an expected return exceeding the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [22][34]. Core Insights - The report indicates that major cities experienced mixed transaction results, with stable policies contributing to market volatility. It is anticipated that the market will stabilize by year-end, benefiting quality real estate firms through the ongoing promotion of new development models [22][23]. - New home transactions in 30 major cities rose to 1.94 million square meters in the 47th week of 2025, reflecting a 22.5% increase from the previous week but a 23.0% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a decline in sales, while second-tier cities experienced a significant increase [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities decreased to 2.09 million square meters, down 1.44% from the previous week and down 13.8% year-on-year. First-tier cities also reported declines, while third-tier cities showed a slight increase [24]. - Land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 47.04 million square meters and transactions at 13.72 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 3.43. The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year reached RMB 1.89 trillion, down 2.72% year-on-year [25]. - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities rose to 23.13 months, indicating a continued increase in the time required to clear available inventory [26]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 47th week of 2025, new home sales reached 1.94 million square meters, up 22.5% week-on-week but down 23.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 420,000 square meters, down 4.4% week-on-week and down 49% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 1.18 million square meters, up 45.7% week-on-week but down 8% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 340,000 square meters, up 1.62% week-on-week and down 16.6% year-on-year [23]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in the 47th week of 2025 totaled 2.09 million square meters, down 1.44% from the previous week and down 13.8% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 817,000 square meters, down 3.9% week-on-week and down 18.7% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 841,000 square meters, down 1.26% week-on-week and down 19.6% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 435,000 square meters, up 3.2% week-on-week and up 15.55% year-on-year [24]. Land Transactions - Land supply in the 47th week was 47.04 million square meters, with transactions at 13.72 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 3.43. The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year was RMB 1.89 trillion, down 2.72% year-on-year [25]. Inventory Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was reported at 23.13 months, reflecting a 2.50% increase from the previous month and a 0.90% increase year-on-year [26].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and is now entering a new phase of development [1][2] - The next stage will involve debt restructuring for real estate companies, market clearing, and the establishment of a new housing construction system [1] Group 1 - The most dangerous period for the real estate market has been overcome after four years of adjustments [1] - The government has successfully implemented measures such as "guaranteeing delivery" and a whitelist system to prevent risks from spreading to the financial system [1] - The upcoming phase will require a series of policies to help the real estate market quickly reach its bottom, although the process will be complex and involve various interests [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough in policy adjustments could lead to a new healthy phase for the Chinese real estate market, contrary to some foreign institutions' views that it will remain at the bottom for an extended period [2] - Policy remains a core element in facilitating the transition to a healthier real estate market [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, highlighting significant challenges and potential shifts in consumer behavior [1][3]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from new homes to second-hand homes and now to rental properties, with increasing rental demand but persistent oversupply issues [1][3]. - The supply of affordable housing is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing and rental markets, with the 14th Five-Year Plan aiming to construct 8.7 million affordable housing units, accounting for about 20% of new home transactions annually [1][3]. - New development models include optimizing affordable housing supply and abolishing the pre-sale system, which may hinder private developers' ability to sustain real estate projects [1][3]. - High-end retail in mainland China shows signs of recovery, benefiting from a favorable stock market and rising gold prices, while shopping center supply is expected to decrease, enhancing rental income potential [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, residential rents have increased by approximately 5%-6% annually over the past two years, driven by policies attracting talent, with the current rent-to-sale ratio around 3.7% [1][9][10]. - The demand for office space in Hong Kong is rising, particularly in the financial sector, with expectations for Central office rents to stabilize by 2026, although other areas may continue to decline [1][12]. Summary by Sections Mainland China Real Estate Market - The rental market is experiencing increased demand, but oversupply remains a critical issue, particularly in first-tier cities where the rent-to-sale ratio is low [1][3]. - The introduction of a large number of affordable housing units is expected to pressure the commercial housing market [1][3]. - The cancellation of the pre-sale system could lead to a decrease in overall project numbers, despite potential growth in high-end luxury demand [1][3]. Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The high-end retail sector in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as stock market performance and gold price increases [1][5][6]. - The residential rental market has seen consistent growth, attributed to government policies attracting skilled talent [1][9]. - The office market is expected to see increased demand, particularly in Central, while other regions may face continued rental declines [1][12]. Commercial Real Estate Outlook - The outlook for commercial real estate in both mainland China and Hong Kong varies, with opportunities arising from the recovery of high-end retail and the rise of domestic brands [1][6]. - The anticipated reduction in shopping center supply in mainland China is expected to enhance the bargaining power of existing malls, potentially increasing rental income [1][4][6]. - In Hong Kong, the retail sector faces challenges from domestic brand competition, tax policies, and e-commerce impacts, despite short-term improvements in high-end retail [1][13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2][12]. Core Insights - Recent transaction volumes in major cities have declined, but stable policies and year-end expectations are anticipated to support market stabilization, benefiting quality real estate companies [2][12]. - The new development model in the industry is gradually being established, which is favorable for quality real estate firms [2][12]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In week 45 of 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, down 23.4% week-on-week and 34.1% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 420,000 square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 38% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 840,000 square meters, down 21.3% week-on-week and 32% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 310,000 square meters, down 32.5% week-on-week and 32.9% year-on-year [13]. - From November 1-6, 2025, 30 cities sold 1.1 million square meters, up 188.7% from October 2025, but down 46% year-on-year [13]. Second-Hand Home Sales - In week 45 of 2025, second-hand home sales in 24 cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, down 4.82% week-on-week and 23.9% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 820,400 square meters, down 8.6% week-on-week and 16.2% year-on-year [14]. - From November 1-6, 2025, 24 cities sold 1.81 million square meters, up 917% from October 2025, but down 23.1% year-on-year [14]. Land Transactions - In week 45 of 2025, land transaction growth in 100 cities rebounded with 37.5 million square meters supplied and 25.08 million square meters sold, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.50. Land transfer revenue was RMB 75.5 billion [15]. - Cumulative land supply in 100 cities was 676.39 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year, while cumulative land transfer revenue was RMB 1.82 trillion, up 1% year-on-year [15]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - In October 2025, the inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was 23.13 months, up 2.50% from the previous month and up 0.90% year-on-year. The available inventory was 31.51 million square meters, down 0.82% from the previous month and down 3.44% year-on-year [16].

Core Insights - The seminar organized by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute focused on the current real estate market and policy analysis, emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends and Challenges - The real estate industry is urged to align with national strategic goals and to view its positioning through a new lens, considering the macro environment and market risks [1] - The industry is facing challenges that require a clear understanding of development trends, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" serving as a key guideline for mitigating risks [1] - There is a consensus among industry leaders on the need for innovation and breakthroughs during the transformation process [2] Group 2: Development Models and Strategies - The core of achieving high-quality development lies in constructing a new development model, which includes transitioning from expansion to improving existing stock, shifting product concepts from merely providing housing to enhancing living quality, and balancing sales and rental markets [2] - Companies are encouraged to reshape their development models, building products, and corporate DNA to embrace long-termism and collaborative growth [2] Group 3: Cross-Industry Integration - The importance of cross-industry integration was highlighted, with examples such as the "West Shanghai Digital Incubation Base" project that combines various sectors to revitalize existing assets [3] - The need for national-level financial institutions to address inventory issues and improve market supply-demand relationships was emphasized [3] Group 4: Operational Improvements and Financial Strategies - Companies are advised to enhance operational capabilities, adopt market-driven cost management, and explore asset securitization through REITs [4] - The industry is encouraged to move away from high-leverage models and ensure that financial tools serve to empower the real economy, focusing on quality development that benefits the public [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of public REITs in China is gaining momentum, with the government actively promoting the development of the market to attract diverse investments and enhance market vitality [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - China's public REITs began in June 2021, with 74 REITs listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen as of September 17, 2023, and a total market capitalization exceeding 220 billion RMB [8]. - The first batch of REITs included 9 funds, and the market has since expanded to include various asset types, with industrial park REITs being the most prevalent [8]. - The upcoming listing of foreign commercial facility REITs, such as CapitaLand's, indicates strong investor interest, with an IPO subscription rate exceeding 500 times [8]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued guidelines to cultivate the REIT market, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure projects and encouraging local governments and state-owned enterprises to establish REITs [4][5]. - The NDRC aims to broaden the investment scope of REITs to include railways, ports, and renewable energy, thereby attracting more private sector participation [5]. Group 3: Investment Performance - The average distribution yield of public REITs in China is projected to reach 6.37% by the end of 2024, surpassing Japan's 5.15% [10]. - Renewable energy-related REITs are expected to achieve a distribution yield of 11.55%, highlighting the potential for stable returns in this sector [10]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth of the REIT market, challenges remain, including high vacancy rates in commercial properties due to over-investment and shifts in consumer behavior towards online shopping [9]. - The REIT model in China is not a quick fix for the country's bad debt issues, as significant real estate inventory remains to be addressed [12]. - The market's ability to sustain required yields and the potential for conflicts of interest in the REIT structure are ongoing concerns [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Kaisa Group Holdings Limited has reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan and successfully delivering 12 projects, amidst a challenging industry environment [1] Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The company emphasizes "stable delivery, optimized structure, and new expansion" as its strategic focus, aligning with national policies aimed at ensuring housing delivery and promoting transformation [1] - Kaisa's revenue from non-property sales reached a record high of approximately 44%, indicating a successful transition towards diversified business models [1][4] Group 2: Quality Delivery and Construction - Kaisa prioritizes "delivery assurance and quality" as its main task, responding to national standards for quality housing by delivering over 5,000 units across key cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [2] - All delivered projects adhere to green, healthy, and smart design principles, enhancing construction quality and meeting modern living demands [2] Group 3: Land Reserves and Urban Renewal - As of June 30, 2025, Kaisa's land reserves total approximately 20.75 million square meters, with 61% located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, providing a strong competitive advantage [3] - The company has over 100 urban renewal projects covering about 31 million square meters, which are expected to contribute to future development through continuous resource transformation [3] Group 4: Cultural and Commercial Integration - Kaisa is advancing its dual-core strategy as a "city public service provider and quality life operator," focusing on cultural and commercial integration to create new growth areas [4] - The company has successfully hosted events like the "Mei" Good Times concert, enhancing urban cultural vibrancy and economic activity through innovative consumption scenarios [4] - Kaisa is also expanding into the pet economy and elderly care services, aiming to provide comprehensive experiences for diverse demographic groups [4]