Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - On December 10, silver rallied significantly, with the Shanghai silver futures rising 5.44% and Shanghai gold futures showing a mild upward trend with a 0.26% increase. The combination of squeeze trading and the risk of the Fed's independence has amplified the upward elasticity of silver. The new round of upward trend in gold and silver has started, and silver is expected to show greater elasticity [4]. - The contraction of the US dollar credit drives the long - term bull market in gold and silver. As the cycle shifts to a mild recovery, silver will have greater elasticity. In 2026, the global economy may transition from a soft landing to a mild recovery, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, releasing the upward elasticity of silver [5]. - Attention should be paid to the FOMC meeting this week. Although there may be short - term adjustment risks after the meeting results are announced, the precious metals are expected to maintain an overall upward - trending oscillation this month, with silver showing greater elasticity and supporting the upward movement of gold [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On December 10, silver prices soared, with the Shanghai silver futures closing with a 5.44% increase, while Shanghai gold futures showed a mild upward trend with a 0.26% intraday increase [4]. Reasons for Silver's Upward Movement - Liquidity - easing trading is the core quarterly driver. The nomination of the new Fed chairman may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the more dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading on liquidity - easing expectations and the risk of the Fed's independence [4]. - Silver squeeze trading has amplified the upward elasticity and is difficult to ease quickly. The London silver lease rate remains high, the spot shortage has not been fundamentally resolved. Squeeze trading has spread from London to other markets, and it has also spread from silver to other metal varieties [4]. Long - term Trend - The contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to dominate the long - term bull market in gold and silver. In 2026, as the global economy transitions from a soft landing to a mild recovery, the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, and the upward elasticity of silver will be released [5]. Short - term Outlook - The results of the December FOMC meeting will be announced early on December 11. Since the market has largely priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and considering Powell's data - dependent style, there may be short - term adjustment risks if a hawkish rate cut scenario occurs. However, due to the persistent silver squeeze trading and the risk - trading related to the Fed chairman's change, precious metals are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation this month [5].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee was held. Fut ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak [2][9][12]. - Gold re - entered the uptrend, and silver's short squeeze boosted upside, unlikely to ease soon. Poly - Silicon prices trended higher, but its fundamentals remained weak [16][17][24]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak. China's financial futures: IH rose by 0.76%, IM rose by 1.08%, TL fell by 0.08%. In commodity futures, silver, platinum, and polysilicon topped the gainers, while egg futures, glass futures, and alumina led the decliners [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On December 1st, Gold rose 1.3% to 963.28 yuan/g, Silver rose 5.9% to 13278 yuan/kg. Gold re - entered the uptrend as the market became desensitized to Fed's possible actions in December, and the reshuffle of the Fed chair may open long - term rate cut expectations. Silver's short squeeze boosted upside, and it's unlikely to ease soon due to tight overseas spot supply and year - end delivery peak [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On December 1st, Poly - Silicon rose 3.3% to 57705 yuan/ton. Recent policy expectations picked up, but its fundamentals remained weak. Southwest China entered the dry season, reducing supply. Demand was also weak, and inventory remained high. Overall, 11 - 12 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with supply dropping more sharply, expecting a slight surplus or tight balance by year - end [23][24][25]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to China from December 3rd to 5th. Chinese citizens can enter Russia visa - free for tourism and business purposes until September 14, 2026, with a maximum stay of 30 days [27]. 2.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China convened the Meeting of the Coordination Mechanism for Cracking Down on Virtual Currency Trading and Speculation on November 28, 2025. Starting January 1, 2026, Shanghai Futures Exchange decided that futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants and overseas intermediaries shall not be subject to position limits. As of the end of October, the total assets under management of public funds had approached 37 trillion yuan, an increase of over 4 trillion yuan year - to - date [28].