距离美联储本周召开关键政策会议仅剩数日，美国总统特朗普公开预测将大幅降息。 中间派官员则倾向于试探，先通过25个基点的降息观察经济反应，再决定后续行动。 市场分析机构指出，如果这种分歧持续扩大，本次会议可能出现三张反对票，如果鹰派与鸽派的对立进一步加剧，反对票数量 甚至可能达到四张，反对票数量的增加，不仅会削弱市场对美联储政策连贯性的信心，还可能引发美元汇率、美股市场的短期 波动。 对美联储政策制定者而言，他们既要在"防衰退"与"控通胀"之间找到精准平衡，还需应对白宫不断扩大的影响力。 彭博社近期对52位经济学家的调查多数人认为将降息25个基点，仅有7位受访者认为可能出现50个基点的更大幅度宽松。多数 受访经济学家表示，美联储当前更倾向于"预防性宽松"，而非开启全面降息周期。 不过即便本次会议如期降息，也不意味着美联储将顺利步入降息通道。9月17日这样的初始政策调整，往往是加息或降息周期 的开端，但当前经济环境的特殊性决定了这次不会出现明显的周期趋势。 鹰派官员认为，当前通胀压力尚未缓解，过早降息可能导致物价失控，因此反对任何形式的宽松举措。 鸽派官员则担忧经济下行风险已超过通胀风险，主张通过50个基点的降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite ongoing inflation concerns, indicating a shift from controlling inflation to stabilizing economic growth [4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the possibility of rate cuts, suggesting that the risks of economic downturn now outweigh inflationary pressures [3][4]. - The Fed's approach is described as a "balancing act," where the current economic conditions necessitate a reduction in interest rates to provide a buffer for the economy [4]. Group 2: Implications for the Economy - A potential interest rate cut could lead to lower mortgage and auto loan rates, reducing borrowing costs for consumers [6]. - However, the effectiveness of rate cuts as a remedy for economic weakness is questioned, as they may only serve as a temporary solution rather than addressing fundamental issues [6]. - Historical data indicates that while stock markets may initially rise following rate cuts, long-term performance will depend on the underlying economic fundamentals [6]. Group 3: Global Impact - The U.S. dollar's status as a primary reserve currency means that any rate cuts could trigger shifts in global capital flows, affecting currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and the cost of imported goods [6]. - The Fed's focus is shifting from inflation control to economic stability, which may influence investment strategies and decision-making processes for investors [8].