哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇评论，主要来分析美联储12月降息概率飙升背后的内部分裂和特朗普政治 影响。 美联储12月会不会降息，现在成了全球金融市场最关注的事。CME美联储观察的最新数据显示，12月 降息25个基点的概率已经升到84.9%，维持利率不变的概率只有15.1%。 这个概率在一个月内的变化相当夸张，从不到30%一路涨到现在这个水平。这背后反映出的是美联储内 部前所未有的分歧和博弈，而且这次的情况和以往很不一样。 市场预期的过山车 回到11月中旬，市场对12月降息的预期其实挺低迷的。当时美国政府关门导致经济数据发布延迟，9月 就业报告新增岗位又超出预期，市场情绪就冷下来了。 11月13日那天，12月降息25个基点的概率一度跌到49.4%，基本就是五五开的状态。 但是到了11月下旬情况突然变了。美联储核心官员开始密集释放鸽派信号，预期很快就转向了。截至11 月25日，12月降息25个基点的概率已经飙升到80.7%，比前一天的69.4%大幅提升。大概率降息已经成 了当前市场的主流判断。 这种预期逆转主要是因为美联储官员最近频繁发声。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯11月21日发表鸽派言论，说 短期内仍有进一步调整利率空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary policy is shifting towards a loosening cycle, with central banks in various countries, including the U.S., Indonesia, Canada, the UK, and Japan, announcing interest rate decisions that reflect this trend [1][12]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since 2025 [1][12]. - The decision aligns with market expectations, but the reasons behind the cut are debated, with factors including economic data and political pressure from the Trump administration [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions to non-farm payrolls, approximately 900,000 jobs adjusted [3][4]. - Current core inflation is around 3%, which remains above the Fed's target of 2%, complicating the monetary policy landscape [4][6]. Political Influence - The Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve is a new variable affecting monetary policy decisions, with the President publicly criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to act [2][5]. - The influence of political factors is expected to persist as long as Trump remains in office, potentially leading to further rate cuts if economic conditions align with his objectives [5][12]. Market Reactions - The market is currently in a bullish trend, benefiting from the Fed's decision to cut rates, which is expected to release liquidity and favor risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [8][9]. - However, if inflation rises significantly, it could lead to a rapid market downturn, highlighting the delicate balance the Fed must maintain [8][9]. Future Outlook - The potential for additional rate cuts depends on economic data performance and the ongoing political pressure from the Trump administration [9][10]. - Other major central banks are likely to maintain their policies based on regional data rather than directly following the Fed's decision [11][12].

Group 1 - The bond market traders are increasing their bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, driven by speculation about potential changes in the Fed's leadership under President Trump [1][4] - The significant widening of the SOFR futures yield spread indicates that investors expect the Fed to cut rates more than previously anticipated between 2025 and 2026, potentially setting new records for the depth and breadth of the easing cycle [3][4] - Recent strong economic indicators, such as stable employment and consumer demand, initially led traders to believe that the Fed would delay rate cuts, but this sentiment shifted following Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell [3][4] Group 2 - Following Trump's intensified criticism of Powell's rate hike tendencies, market expectations for rate cuts have dramatically changed, with investors now anticipating a 76 basis point cut next year, up from 25 basis points in April [4][5] - The belief that Powell's successor will be more compliant with Trump's demands for rate cuts has become a core driver of this market shift, despite Powell's current position and the Fed's emphasis on its independence [5][6] - The pricing changes in the SOFR futures market are beginning to affect actual financing costs, leading to a slight decrease in long-term bond issuance rates as companies rush to secure lower funding costs [6]