"超级央行周"来袭。 印尼、美国、加拿大、英国和日本等国家央行相继公布利率决议，备受投资者关注。虽然利率决策不 一，但是整体而言，全球货币政策正迈向宽松周期。 纽约联储前信贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨（Richard Roberts）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，美联储此 次降息或将是新一轮宽松周期的起点。不过，他强调，一旦降息持续至年底甚至明年，确实可能存在风 险。"我最担心的核心风险是通胀重新抬头并对经济造成严重冲击，导致那些已长期上涨的资产价格出 现大幅回撤。" 据新华社报道，美联储于17日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%之间。这是 美联储2025年首次降息。 美联储此次降息尽管符合市场预期，但是关于降息原因市场仍讨论颇多。到底是基于经济数据的理性判 断还是特朗普政府施压的结果？罗伯茨对记者表示，答案是都有。一方面，劳动力市场出现疲软的迹 象；另一方面，美国总统特朗普对美联储施加压力，试图影响决策，并不断公开批评鲍威尔动作过慢。 罗伯茨补充道，未来美联储的货币政策仍将受到政治因素的影响。不过，全球货币政策仍将保持独立 性。"各央行仍会关注本地区核心数据，并据此行事。" 两个新 ...

Group 1 - The bond market traders are increasing their bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, driven by speculation about potential changes in the Fed's leadership under President Trump [1][4] - The significant widening of the SOFR futures yield spread indicates that investors expect the Fed to cut rates more than previously anticipated between 2025 and 2026, potentially setting new records for the depth and breadth of the easing cycle [3][4] - Recent strong economic indicators, such as stable employment and consumer demand, initially led traders to believe that the Fed would delay rate cuts, but this sentiment shifted following Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell [3][4] Group 2 - Following Trump's intensified criticism of Powell's rate hike tendencies, market expectations for rate cuts have dramatically changed, with investors now anticipating a 76 basis point cut next year, up from 25 basis points in April [4][5] - The belief that Powell's successor will be more compliant with Trump's demands for rate cuts has become a core driver of this market shift, despite Powell's current position and the Fed's emphasis on its independence [5][6] - The pricing changes in the SOFR futures market are beginning to affect actual financing costs, leading to a slight decrease in long-term bond issuance rates as companies rush to secure lower funding costs [6]