随着食品和能源价格带来的上涨压力消退，日本东京的通胀降幅超出市场预期。尽管通胀数据大幅回 落，但核心指标仍维持在日本央行2%的目标之上，这表明央行目前的政策紧缩路径并未受到实质性阻 碍，未来加息轨道依然清晰。 据日本总务省周五发布的数据，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较上 月2.8%的涨幅大幅放缓。这一数据表现明显低于经济学家此前预期的2.5%。 作为全国通胀趋势的前瞻性指标，东京的数据显示整体价格压力正在减轻。12月整体通胀率从上月的 2.7%放缓至2%，而剔除能源后的更深层通胀指标也同步减速至2.6%。 此次数据的发布正值市场密切审视日本价格轨迹之时，投资者试图据此评估日本央行下一步政策行动的 具体时机。 通胀普遍降温，但核心通胀指标依然位于目标上方 据彭博报道，东京通胀数据的回落主要受到食品和能源价格压力减弱的驱动。作为日本全国价格趋势的 领先指标，东京CPI的走势往往预示着全国范围内的通胀动向。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定 ...

Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced narrow fluctuations during the day and closed higher at night, while London tin showed a strong oscillation trend [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 26, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported tin registered warehouse receipts of 1,625 tons and canceled receipts of 155 tons, an increase of 55 tons; total tin inventory stood at 1,780 tons, a decrease of 5 tons [2] - In the spot market, small brands were heard trading at a premium of around 300 yuan/ton for September, while "Yun" brands were at a premium of 300-600 yuan/ton, and "Yunxi" brands remained at a premium of 600-800 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported tin warehouse receipts of 7,152 tons on August 26, an increase of 120 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted a slight month-on-month increase in supply in July, with low tin ore imports; demand in the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors remained strong, while traditional sectors showed marginal decline, with expectations of rigid demand in August [4] - Social inventory saw a slight week-on-week increase last week; the National Energy Administration reported that total electricity consumption in July surpassed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [4] - The recent speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting potential adjustments in policy stance due to rising downside risks in employment [4] - Nanhua Futures highlighted that the continuous decline in social inventory of tin ingots over the past two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices, with demand from soldering material enterprises remaining stable as long as prices do not exceed 270,000 yuan per ton [5] - The overall market outlook is expected to remain oscillatory [5]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin suggests that monetary policy may not be as tight as previously thought, indicating stable consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Barkin's comments imply that the current economic conditions may allow for a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - Consumer spending remains stable, which is a positive sign for the economy and may influence future policy decisions [1] - The overall message indicates a potential shift in the Fed's approach to interest rates and economic management [1]