Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded from a three-week low of $3,302, indicating a potential recovery despite ongoing market caution [3][4] - The market is awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the second quarter GDP and Federal Reserve policy announcements, which may influence gold prices [4] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown no immediate results, leading to a cautious market sentiment, while reports suggest a potential extension of the trade truce by a quarter [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face downward risks, particularly after falling below the key support level of $3,342 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 45, suggesting bearish potential for gold prices [7] - Gold may retest the three-week low of $3,302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3,283 [8] Group 3 - The last defense line for gold buyers is set at the June 30 low of $3,248, while regaining a close near $3,345 is crucial for a meaningful rebound [9] - The next resistance level is at $3,380, leading towards the $3,400 mark [9]

黄金上行乏力，需关注哪里的支撑？ 原油震荡上涨，阻力区间在何处？黄金失守3400美元，目前下方首个目标在哪？点击查看最新分析！ 相关链接 ...

黄金实时分析中 黄金上涨受阻，3345阻力能否突破？多头的目标价格在哪？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进入直播 间观看>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of gold prices, questioning whether the recent drop below 3295 is genuine and if the market is nearing the end of a period of stagnation [1] - It raises the possibility of significant movements in the gold market during the US trading session, suggesting that traders should be attentive to potential volatility [1]