Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting a rebound after a period of decline, and analyzes various factors influencing gold prices in the short, medium, and long term [5][7]. Group 1: Gold Production and Reserves - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production reached 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year-on-year. Additionally, imported gold production was 121.149 tons, up 8.94% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 392.931 tons, which is a 3.60% increase year-on-year [7]. - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.343 trillion, with gold reserves at 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) and representing the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Trading Attributes (Short-term)**: - Geopolitical risks remain high due to ongoing conflicts, which is favorable for gold prices [11]. - Stock market volatility and uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown are also seen as positive for gold [11]. - COMEX non-commercial long positions are dominant, but caution is advised due to technical overbought conditions [11]. - **Financial Attributes (Medium-term)**: - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is at 65%, which would lower the cost of holding gold [11]. - Inflation concerns are heightened due to the delay in U.S. CPI data, with the September core PCE at 3.7% [11]. - Employment data is missing due to the government shutdown, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021 [11]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen over 8% from its yearly high, currently trading around 99.5, which is favorable for gold [11]. - **Monetary Attributes (Long-term)**: - The RMB exchange rate remains stable, supported by the central bank's continuous gold purchases [11]. - Global central banks are expanding their balance sheets, leading to ample liquidity, which is beneficial for gold [11]. - A trend of de-dollarization is evident, with global central banks net purchasing 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - Many central banks are diversifying their reserves away from the dollar by increasing gold holdings [11]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October [11]. Group 3: Recent News and Market Sentiment - Recent news includes the continuous increase in China's gold reserves, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [12]. - Various financial institutions have expressed bullish sentiments on gold, with target prices set at $4000 by Gao, $3700 by UBS, and a general positive outlook from other banks regarding gold's long-term potential [13].

美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周一美元指数呈现出上涨的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至99.325的位置，最低则下探至98.808位置，最终以99.231的价格收 盘。回顾周一市场整体表现，价格在早盘期间短线先承压于四小时阻力，之后欧盘向上拉升，虽然当天最终收阳，但是目前谨慎追多，重点关注短期的调 整。 从多周期分析，周线价格经过前期持续震荡后于上周进行站稳，目前周线支撑于98区域，后续关注进一步中期多头。从日线级别看，随着时间的推移目前日 线支撑于98.40区域，价格此位置之上波段进一步上涨。从四小时上看，在上周五价格跌破四小时支撑位置，则短线偏承压，同时我们需要注意上周跳空缺 口位置，目前四小时阻力于99.10-20区间，价格短期在此位置上下盘整，后续持续关注此位置进一步跌破开启短期的调整动作。一小时上价格目前同样偏承 压。所以综合看目前激进者依托上周高点下于今日早盘附近看承压，保守者可以等待跌破99.10后再跟随。 欧美方面，周一欧美价格总体呈现下跌的状态。当日价格最低下跌至1.1557位置，最高上涨至1.1629位置，收盘于1.1568位置。回顾周一欧美市场表现，在 早盘期间价格短线进行震荡，随后欧盘 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded from a three-week low of $3,302, indicating a potential recovery despite ongoing market caution [3][4] - The market is awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the second quarter GDP and Federal Reserve policy announcements, which may influence gold prices [4] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown no immediate results, leading to a cautious market sentiment, while reports suggest a potential extension of the trade truce by a quarter [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face downward risks, particularly after falling below the key support level of $3,342 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 45, suggesting bearish potential for gold prices [7] - Gold may retest the three-week low of $3,302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3,283 [8] Group 3 - The last defense line for gold buyers is set at the June 30 low of $3,248, while regaining a close near $3,345 is crucial for a meaningful rebound [9] - The next resistance level is at $3,380, leading towards the $3,400 mark [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current challenges faced by gold prices, indicating that gold has lost the $3,400 mark and raises questions about where the next support level might be [1] - It also highlights the fluctuations in crude oil prices, suggesting that there is a resistance zone that needs to be identified for potential trading strategies [1] - The article prompts readers to consider the next target for gold prices following its recent decline, indicating a need for updated analysis [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the resistance faced by gold prices at the 3345 level and questions whether this resistance can be broken [1] - The article highlights the target price for bullish investors in the gold market, indicating ongoing interest and analysis in this sector [1]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of gold prices, questioning whether the recent drop below 3295 is genuine and if the market is nearing the end of a period of stagnation [1] - It raises the possibility of significant movements in the gold market during the US trading session, suggesting that traders should be attentive to potential volatility [1]