在美联储周三如预期将利率下调25个基点（bps）至3.5%-3.75%后，黄金等无收益资产在近期的看涨势头上继续发力。 · 美元在美国国债收益率下跌的情况下舔舐伤口，市场焦点转向下周的非农就业数据 · 黄金渴望在4250美元上方获得认可，以维持持续的上涨趋势，技术面依然看涨。 周四，黄金在4250美元的心理关口测试看跌承诺，暂停了两天的上涨趋势，市场权衡美联储（Fed）政策声明低于预期鹰派的影响。 黄金在美联储裁决后等待美国就业数据 黄金在周四早盘亚洲交易中延续了隔夜的上涨，随后在4250美元水平再次出现获利回吐。 今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年12月11日的黄金深入分析 · 黄金在美联储的决定低于预期鹰派的情况下，继续上涨并测试4250美元的心理关口。 尽管降息广受期待，但美元在各个市场遭遇重创，同时美国国债收益率也下跌，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上保持谨慎的语气，令那 些原本预期更鹰派言论的投资者感到失望。 市场继续定价明年将再降息两次，而美联储的中位数预期为明年降息一个季度百分点，这使得黄金在牺牲美元的情况下获得了动力。 在回调时，21日SMA在4157.88美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting a rebound after a period of decline, and analyzes various factors influencing gold prices in the short, medium, and long term [5][7]. Group 1: Gold Production and Reserves - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production reached 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year-on-year. Additionally, imported gold production was 121.149 tons, up 8.94% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 392.931 tons, which is a 3.60% increase year-on-year [7]. - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.343 trillion, with gold reserves at 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) and representing the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Trading Attributes (Short-term)**: - Geopolitical risks remain high due to ongoing conflicts, which is favorable for gold prices [11]. - Stock market volatility and uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown are also seen as positive for gold [11]. - COMEX non-commercial long positions are dominant, but caution is advised due to technical overbought conditions [11]. - **Financial Attributes (Medium-term)**: - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is at 65%, which would lower the cost of holding gold [11]. - Inflation concerns are heightened due to the delay in U.S. CPI data, with the September core PCE at 3.7% [11]. - Employment data is missing due to the government shutdown, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021 [11]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen over 8% from its yearly high, currently trading around 99.5, which is favorable for gold [11]. - **Monetary Attributes (Long-term)**: - The RMB exchange rate remains stable, supported by the central bank's continuous gold purchases [11]. - Global central banks are expanding their balance sheets, leading to ample liquidity, which is beneficial for gold [11]. - A trend of de-dollarization is evident, with global central banks net purchasing 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - Many central banks are diversifying their reserves away from the dollar by increasing gold holdings [11]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October [11]. Group 3: Recent News and Market Sentiment - Recent news includes the continuous increase in China's gold reserves, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, and signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [12]. - Various financial institutions have expressed bullish sentiments on gold, with target prices set at $4000 by Gao, $3700 by UBS, and a general positive outlook from other banks regarding gold's long-term potential [13].

Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a high of 99.325 and a low of 98.808, closing at 99.231 [1] - The weekly support level is at 98, with a focus on potential mid-term bullish trends [1] - Short-term resistance is identified in the 99.10-20 range, with a need to monitor for potential adjustments if this level is breached [1] Gold - Gold prices experienced an overall increase on Monday, peaking at 4116.89 and bottoming at 4003.76, closing at 4110.44 [3] - The long-term critical level for gold is at 3130, while the weekly support is at 3585, indicating a bullish outlook above these levels [3] - Key support for short-term trading is identified at 4073-4075, with a focus on maintaining bullish positions above 4106 [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1557 and a high of 1.1629, closing at 1.1568 [5] - Long-term support is at 1.1100, while the weekly support level is at 1.1680, indicating potential pressure on the pair [5] - Short-term resistance is at 1.1670, with a need to monitor for potential upward adjustments if the price surpasses 1.1580 [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded from a three-week low of $3,302, indicating a potential recovery despite ongoing market caution [3][4] - The market is awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the second quarter GDP and Federal Reserve policy announcements, which may influence gold prices [4] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown no immediate results, leading to a cautious market sentiment, while reports suggest a potential extension of the trade truce by a quarter [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face downward risks, particularly after falling below the key support level of $3,342 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 45, suggesting bearish potential for gold prices [7] - Gold may retest the three-week low of $3,302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3,283 [8] Group 3 - The last defense line for gold buyers is set at the June 30 low of $3,248, while regaining a close near $3,345 is crucial for a meaningful rebound [9] - The next resistance level is at $3,380, leading towards the $3,400 mark [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current challenges faced by gold prices, indicating that gold has lost the $3,400 mark and raises questions about where the next support level might be [1] - It also highlights the fluctuations in crude oil prices, suggesting that there is a resistance zone that needs to be identified for potential trading strategies [1] - The article prompts readers to consider the next target for gold prices following its recent decline, indicating a need for updated analysis [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the resistance faced by gold prices at the 3345 level and questions whether this resistance can be broken [1] - The article highlights the target price for bullish investors in the gold market, indicating ongoing interest and analysis in this sector [1]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of gold prices, questioning whether the recent drop below 3295 is genuine and if the market is nearing the end of a period of stagnation [1] - It raises the possibility of significant movements in the gold market during the US trading session, suggesting that traders should be attentive to potential volatility [1]