1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Nickel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,070 yuan/ton and closed at 114,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 129,996 (+29,560) lots, and the open interest was 105,210 (+252) lots. The price trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the triple pressure of supply - demand surplus, high inventory, and technical breakdown [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, maintaining a price - holding attitude. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their pressure on nickel ore purchase prices might ease. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore was expected to decline [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 120,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 5,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,872 (+2,622) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,392 (+360) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2][3] Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,560 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,564 (+56,756) lots, and the open interest was 118,271 (-4,171) lots. The trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the pressure of supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and export policy disturbances. In the short term, there was unlikely to be an obvious rebound, and it was expected to oscillate and consolidate in the range of 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton [3] - The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with purchases mainly on an as - needed basis. Inventory reduction slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 265 - 465 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors including policy expectations, technical breakdowns, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risks [3] Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold fell below $4060 per ounce, dropping over 1.85% during the day [1] - Spot silver touched $47 per ounce, declining over 2% [1] - COMEX gold futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, approaching $4060 per ounce, with a current drop of 1.79% [1] - Current prices include: - London Gold: $4050.228, down $76.262 (-1.85%) [2] - London Silver: $47.850, down $0.996 (-2.04%) [2] - COMEX Gold: $4071.3, down $74.3 (-1.79%) [2] - COMEX Silver: $47.615, down $1.089 (-2.24%) [2] Market Sentiment - U.S. gold stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Coeur Mining down over 4% and both Kinross and Harmony Gold down more than 2% [2] - Citigroup has turned bearish on gold prices, predicting a drop to $4000 within the next three months [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, long-term support for gold is expected from global economic recession risks and central bank gold purchases, with a projected net increase of over 1000 tons by central banks in 2025 [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming October CPI data (to be released on the 25th) and the Federal Reserve's meeting statements to gauge market direction changes [3]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]