Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors including policy expectations, technical breakdowns, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risks [3] Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold fell below $4060 per ounce, dropping over 1.85% during the day [1] - Spot silver touched $47 per ounce, declining over 2% [1] - COMEX gold futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, approaching $4060 per ounce, with a current drop of 1.79% [1] - Current prices include: - London Gold: $4050.228, down $76.262 (-1.85%) [2] - London Silver: $47.850, down $0.996 (-2.04%) [2] - COMEX Gold: $4071.3, down $74.3 (-1.79%) [2] - COMEX Silver: $47.615, down $1.089 (-2.24%) [2] Market Sentiment - U.S. gold stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Coeur Mining down over 4% and both Kinross and Harmony Gold down more than 2% [2] - Citigroup has turned bearish on gold prices, predicting a drop to $4000 within the next three months [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, long-term support for gold is expected from global economic recession risks and central bank gold purchases, with a projected net increase of over 1000 tons by central banks in 2025 [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming October CPI data (to be released on the 25th) and the Federal Reserve's meeting statements to gauge market direction changes [3]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]