乌克兰局势仍未出现降温迹象，泽连斯基再度表态拒绝任何领土交换方案，使避险需求维持在黄金上 方，为价格在事件公布前提供稳定支撑。 短线来看，XAU/USD仍在既有区间内运行。 上方阻力集中在4245至4250美元区间。一旦突破，该结构有望推动价格进一步指向4277至4280美元，并 测试4300美元一线。 周三欧洲早盘，黄金继续在高位下方区间运行。美元短线承压，加上避险情绪维持温和，使金价得到一 定支撑，但多头缺乏进一步突破的动能。随着为期两天的美联储会议将在今日凌晨公布结果，交易端情 绪明显趋向保守，市场普遍将最新经济预测、未来政策路径暗示以及鲍威尔的讲话视为本周方向的核心 线索。 围绕下一任美联储主席的内部讨论意外升温。据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普将在数日内与候选人进行 最终面谈，前理事凯文·沃什与国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特均在名单之列。由于哈塞特与白宫政策 立场一致，其被视为更有可能获提名。一些机构提醒，如果市场认为政策独立性可能受影响，美联储或 选择在本次会议中呈现更偏鹰的沟通，以巩固公信力。 欧洲盘中，金价仍维持在周线高位下方整理。此前虽然自低位出现反弹，但上行空间受限，整体走势符 合重大事件前的 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and delayed economic data will be released, marking a critical period for market recalibration [1] - Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and manufacturing metrics will provide insights into the economy's true state, influencing market expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal concerns regarding persistent inflation and financial stability are rising, with upcoming meeting minutes and speeches expected to impact asset performance [1] Economic Data and Market Impact - The release of delayed economic data next week will reveal the underlying economic conditions, potentially reigniting expectations for monetary easing if the data is weak [1] - Conversely, strong data could delay any policy shifts from the Federal Reserve, affecting the direction of interest rates and the dollar [1][2] - The market is likely to experience volatility as traders reassess their positions based on the new data and policy signals [3] Market Behavior and Asset Performance - In a fluctuating risk environment, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may remain strong if data is robust and interpreted as a sign of tighter policy [2] - Gold prices may face pressure but could rebound if economic signals are weak, although structural limitations on its price recovery remain [2] - The stock market is expected to see increased opportunities, but with notable sector rotation, particularly among high-valuation tech and interest-sensitive sectors [2] Trading Strategies - Maintaining flexible positions is crucial during this data-heavy and policy-uncertain phase to allow for adjustments [4] - Traders should focus on volatility opportunities surrounding data releases and significant speeches, potentially employing cross-market hedging strategies [4] - Setting clear stop-loss and take-profit levels at key technical points is essential to manage risks effectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Powell emphasizes that tariffs will not drive inflation and reiterates that the future policy path will not be without risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation and Tariffs** - Powell asserts that the implementation of tariffs will not lead to an increase in inflation [1] - **Policy Risks** - The future policy trajectory is highlighted as having inherent risks, indicating that the economic landscape remains uncertain [1]