Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points last week before retreating, leading to a slight increase in social media activity[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 95.47 billion CNY, an increase of 58.47 billion CNY from the previous value, marking a new high in nearly two months[2] Fund Trends - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards growth sectors, particularly in electronics and cyclical industries[2] - Among public fund heavyweights, 30% have outperformed since September 2018, with concentration in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computing sectors[2] Social Media Insights - Social media discussions about A-shares have seen a slight uptick, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin maintaining high engagement levels, while Weibo and Baidu remain relatively calm[5] - The demographic of Douyin users watching A-share content has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of middle-aged and older users[7] Retail Participation - The number of retail investors participating in financing and margin trading has increased, with a net inflow of financing funds of 8.04 billion CNY, up 0.85 billion CNY from the previous week[35] - The number of individual investors in financing and margin trading reached 745.8 thousand, reflecting a 0.14% increase from the previous value[35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by three forces: programmatic trading from CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors), continuous corporate buybacks, and aggressive retail investor buying [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors have shown remarkable buying strength, with net purchases reaching $4.1 billion, marking the highest level ever recorded for that time period [1]. - Retail trading volume accounted for approximately 36%, setting a new historical record, with total net purchases for the day amounting to $5.4 billion [1][3]. Group 2: Corporate Buybacks - The end of the stock buyback blackout period has contributed to the ongoing market rally, as companies are now able to repurchase their shares [2]. - Although the year-to-date buyback authorization has reached a historical high, actual execution of these buybacks has not yet matched the authorized amounts, typically executing around 80-90% of the authorized volume [10]. Group 3: CTA Activity - CTAs remain consistent buyers regardless of market conditions, with significant inflows during sideways and rising markets, and limited selling during downturns [8][10]. - In the upcoming months, CTAs are expected to sell only during significant market declines, specifically at a 2.5 standard deviation drop [10]. - Current market activity indicates that long-term institutions are slightly net selling, while hedge funds are maintaining a neutral stance with minor adjustments in macro positions [3].

核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 自媒体热度创近两周新高，杠杆资金净流入由减转增 ——投资者温度计第24期 2025年5月12日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 上周市场震荡上行，受5/7国新办发布会影响自媒体热度创近两周新高。 • 公募抱团趋势增强，风格偏向价值，行业偏向消费、电子；24/9/18至今公募重仓股四成领涨，行业集中于电子、 医药、军工等。 • 最近一周以小单衡量的沪深两市A股散户资金净流入618.0亿元，较前值增加148.3亿元，处过去五年18.8%分 位，净流入规模持续处于低位；融资资金净流入167.4亿元，较上周增加325.0亿元。 1.1、自媒体：热度创近两周新高 证 ...