证券研究报告 牛市资金面面观 分析师：徐陈翼 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：熊宇翔 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 3 报告日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 1 9 日 ——牛市宝典系列一 核心观点 历轮牛市主要增量资金回顾： A股每轮上行行情增量资金均在万亿以上，大级别行情3万亿以上，本轮仍有增量空间。A股历轮牛市中，公募、险资、外资、杠杆资金四大 主体，在行情从低位上行至高点期间的增量资金贡献均在万亿元级别，其中2014-2015年和2020-2021年两轮资金增量高达3万亿元以上。本轮自去年9月以来的牛市中， 杠杆资金与险资贡献了主要增量，总量上看当前增量分别占2015、2021年两轮行情的87%、73%。 本轮行情各主体增量： 2、险资：今年以来，金融监管总局通过上调保险资金权益类资产投资比例的上限、调降保险公司股票投资风险因子等具体措施，直接为险资加大权益投资铺平道路。截 至2025Q3，险资在股票与证券投资上的运用余额较2024Q3增长近1.5万亿元，权益仓位为2015Q2以来最高。展望明年，仍有望贡献重要增量。 风 ...

Core Insights - Bosnia's economic growth has reached its lowest level since 2012, facing dual pressures of weak consumption growth and declining industrial output [1] - The Foreign Investment Promotion Agency predicts a 14% decrease in investment this year, following a record investment of 1.7 billion marks last year [1] - Analysts highlight that the deterioration of the investment environment is primarily due to inconsistent regulations, overlapping jurisdictions, and a lack of incentives [1] Investment Environment - The president of the Foreign Trade Chamber of Bosnia emphasizes the urgent need to restore tax incentives for export-oriented enterprises, similar to practices in the EU and neighboring countries [1] - Croatia and Austria remain the main sources of investment in Bosnia, with around 200 Austrian companies creating over 8,000 jobs locally [1] Potential Growth Areas - Economic analysts suggest that Bosnia should not only focus on attracting foreign investment but also explore the potential of state-owned enterprises, overseas compatriots, and the entrepreneurial economy [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that as of October 29, 2025, a total of 30 institutional investors hold shares in Teruid (300001.SZ), with a combined holding of 446 million shares, representing 42.23% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors account for 42.01% of the total shares, showing a decrease of 0.86 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Institutional Holdings - In the public fund sector, seven funds increased their holdings, with a total increase of 0.51%, including notable funds like the GF National Index New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF and Pengyang Advanced Manufacturing Mixed A [2] - Conversely, seven public funds reduced their holdings, with a decrease of 0.27%, including funds like the E Fund ChiNext ETF and Southern CSI 500 ETF [2] - There were nine new public funds disclosed this period, while 402 funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2] Insurance Capital - One insurance capital entity, China Life Insurance Co., Ltd., reduced its holdings by 1.0% this quarter [2] - One new insurance investor was disclosed, also from China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. [2] Foreign Investment - One foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings by 1.62% [3] - One new foreign institution was disclosed, Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited [3] Technical Indicators - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [4]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion in Q3, an increase compared to Q2 [1][2] Flow Perspective - In Q3, southbound funds continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion, which is an increase from Q2 [2] - The outflow of foreign capital has slowed down, with a cumulative net outflow of HKD 66.4 billion in Q3, marking a decrease in outflow for three consecutive quarters [2] - The proportion of southbound holdings in Hong Kong stocks has reached a new high, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect holding amount rising from 20.7% at the end of Q2 to 21.8% at the end of Q3 [2] Industry Perspective - In Q3, the main inflows from southbound funds were into consumer discretionary, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, while software and hardware saw net outflows in Q2 [3] - Foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors [3] - Southbound funds have gained significant pricing power in sectors such as semiconductors, general consumption, and general dividends over the past two years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher with performance divergence, large-cap blue-chip stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks. The market is in a random walk state this week with less macro data and fewer disturbances from domestic and overseas news. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, market trading is relatively dull. The previously announced economic data shows that the economy in August was still under pressure, and the real estate had an obvious drag on fixed investment. The marginal weakening of the "trade-in" policy also put pressure on social retail sales. It is necessary to wait for further policy efforts. Although Powell's hawkish remarks put short-term pressure on the RMB, the dot plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, which will also provide space for domestic policy easing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the policy is implemented. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2512) was at 4562.2, up 39.6; IF sub-main contract (2510) was at 4585.0, up 37.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 2953.6, up 15.4; IH sub-main contract (2510) was at 2953.8, up 14.6. IC main contract (2512) was at 7166.6, up 30.8; IC sub-main contract (2510) was at 7293.2, up 32.8. IM main contract (2512) was at 7281.8, down 6.6; IM sub-main contract (2510) was at 7444.6, down 10.2. There were also changes in various spreads and differences between different quarters and the current month [2] 3.2 Futures Positions - IF's top 20 net positions were -28,681.00, down 261.0; IH's top 20 net positions were -17,213.00, up 845.0. IC's top 20 net positions were -25,724.00, down 719.0; IM's top 20 net positions were -40,023.00, down 1530.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4593.49, up 27.4; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 2952.7, up 13.2. The CSI 500 was at 7341.3, up 17.6; the CSI 1000 was at 7506.5, down 27.7. There were also corresponding changes in the basis of each main contract [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 23,917.71, up 446.16; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 24,311.05, up 143.17. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2861.33, down 384.30. There were also changes in reverse repurchase, main funds, MLF, the proportion of rising stocks, Shibor, option prices and implied volatilities, and various ratios [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 4.40, down 3.40; the technical aspect was at 2.70, down 5.50. The capital aspect was at 6.00, down 1.40 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%. At the press conference, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing introduced that the "science" content of the capital market has been further improved, and the market value of the A-share technology sector currently accounts for more than 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium and long-term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of the A-share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A-share market value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "national team" funds have significantly increased their holdings in ETFs, with a total purchase of nearly 66 billion units in the first half of the year, reflecting their strong influence and stability in the A-share market amidst volatility [1][5]. Group 1: National Team's Investment Strategy - As of June 30, the "national team" institutions, including Central Huijin and China Reform Holdings, held a total of 26 ETFs with a combined market value of 1.28 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 20% year-to-date [1][5]. - Central Huijin maintained a stable overall holding, while its subsidiary, Central Huijin Asset Management, aggressively increased its positions in broad-based, small-cap, and technology innovation ETFs [2][5]. - The top ETFs in the "national team's" portfolio include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, which are the main components of their holdings [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and ETF Growth - The total market size of ETFs has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, achieving a growth of 37.25% compared to the end of the previous year, with an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan in the first eight months of this year alone [8][9]. - The rapid growth of the ETF market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, improved market sentiment, product innovation, and rising investment demand [9][10]. - The "national team's" actions during market downturns have played a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with significant inflows from long-term funds such as insurance capital [8][10]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Investments - The "national team" has extended its asset allocation to various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, chips, and liquor, through asset management plans [5][6]. - Central Huijin Asset Management has notably increased its holdings in industry-specific ETFs, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors [6][10]. - The investment strategy indicates a focus on both broad market exposure and targeted sector investments, reflecting a comprehensive approach to capital allocation [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2023, the "national team" significantly increased its investment in ETFs, showcasing its influence and stability in the volatile A-share market, with a total investment of nearly 66 billion yuan [3][5]. Group 1: National Team's Investment Strategy - The national team, including Central Huijin and China Reform Holdings, has increased its holdings in 26 ETFs, with a total market value reaching 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 20% [3][8]. - Central Huijin maintained a stable overall holding, while its subsidiary, Central Huijin Asset Management, aggressively increased its positions in broad-based, small-cap, and sci-tech ETFs, raising its holdings by 58.5% [6][9]. - China Reform focused on central enterprise-themed ETFs, increasing its holdings in specific products, which contributed to a net increase of 1.48 million shares [8][9]. Group 2: ETF Market Growth - The total market size of ETFs surpassed 5 trillion yuan, achieving a growth of 37.25% compared to the end of the previous year, with an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2023 alone [12][14]. - The rapid growth of the ETF market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, improved market sentiment, product innovation, and rising investment demand [13][14]. - The national team's actions during market downturns have played a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with significant trading volumes observed in A-share ETFs following their increased participation [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ETF market is expected to continue its rapid growth, driven by policy initiatives, changing market demands, and increased participation from individual and institutional investors [14]. - The anticipated inflow of long-term funds, particularly from insurance capital, is projected to reach 1 trillion yuan in equity assets this year, further supporting the ETF market [12][14]. - Future growth in the ETF market may focus on Hong Kong stocks, industry themes, and bond ETFs, as the market adapts to evolving investor preferences [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "national team" has significantly increased its holdings in ETFs, demonstrating strong market influence and stability amid A-share market volatility, with a total investment of approximately 660 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: National Team Holdings - As of June 30, the "national team" holds a total of 26 ETFs with a combined market value of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of over 20% year-to-date [1][8]. - Central Huijin maintains a stable overall holding with 21 ETFs, while Central Huijin Asset Management has aggressively increased its holdings by 658.86 million shares, a 58.5% increase from the end of last year [3][9]. - The top five ETFs by market value held by the "national team" include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (292.9 billion yuan), E Fund CSI 300 ETF (217.7 billion yuan), and others, which together account for over 75% of the total market value [9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Central Huijin Asset Management has focused on increasing its positions in broad-based, small-cap, and technology innovation ETFs, while China National New focuses on central enterprise-themed products [1][4][8]. - The "national team" has also extended its asset allocation into sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chips, and liquor through asset management plans [9][12]. Group 3: ETF Market Growth - The total market size of ETFs has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, marking a 37.25% increase from the end of last year, with a record increase of 1.39 trillion yuan in the first eight months of this year [10][11]. - The rapid growth of the ETF market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, improved market sentiment, product innovation, and increased investment demand [12][13]. - The "national team" has played a crucial role in stabilizing the market during downturns, with significant inflows from long-term funds such as insurance capital [10][12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The recent market uptrend has been significantly driven by high-risk preference funds such as leveraged funds and private equity funds, while low-risk preference funds are focusing on structural opportunities [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Active Equity Funds**: There has been a marginal improvement in the issuance and redemption of active equity funds, with July's new issuance reaching 9.7 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from a previous low cycle [3][4]. - **ETF Performance**: Broad-based ETFs faced redemption pressure with a net outflow of 76.7 billion yuan in July, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 31.7 billion yuan, particularly in sectors like cyclical, manufacturing, and finance [5]. - **Leverage Funds**: The inflow of leveraged funds has been rapid and significant since July, contributing to the bullish market sentiment [6]. - **Insurance Capital**: Insurance holdings increased significantly, reaching approximately 400 billion yuan in Q1, with the proportion of insurance capital in equity assets rising to 8.4%, the highest since 2022 [8][9]. - **Foreign Investment**: Foreign capital participation in A-shares has been increasing, with net inflows of nearly 20 billion yuan in July, indicating a recovery in market confidence [10]. - **Private Equity Funds**: The management scale and positions of private equity funds have increased significantly, marking them as a crucial source of incremental capital in the current market [11]. - **Retail Investor Participation**: Although the number of new accounts has risen, retail investor confidence remains slow to recover, with institutional investors primarily driving the current market uptrend [12]. - **IPO and Refinance Activity**: There has been a notable increase in IPO and refinancing activities among listed companies, but the pressure on market liquidity remains low compared to previous years [13]. Additional Important Insights - The issuance of floating management fee products has significantly contributed to the recovery of active equity fund issuance, with 22.7 billion yuan from these products in June [4]. - The market has seen three phases of industry-themed ETF growth in 2023, each associated with the TMT technology growth backdrop [5]. - The recent policies have facilitated insurance capital's entry into the market, with a notable increase in the number of stakes taken by insurance funds in listed companies [9].

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].