俄罗斯的未来图景应当如何描绘？面对外部地缘政治挑战与严峻的制裁压力，俄罗斯应如何实现经济持 续发展？近日，在俄罗斯联邦政府财政金融大学举办的"俄罗斯：未来形象"国际论坛上，联邦政府官 员、国家杜马代表、高校及智库专家齐聚一堂，围绕全球转型背景下的国家发展战略展开讨论，试图从 技术、经济和社会多个维度勾勒出俄罗斯的未来轮廓。 全球治理格局转变 俄方认为，当前世界格局正在经历深刻调整，以金砖国家为代表的新兴经济体迅速崛起，部分新兴经济 体的居民收入与生活水平已不逊于，甚至在某种程度上超过了一些发达国家。俄罗斯财政部长西卢安诺 夫指出，传统的"发达—发展中"二元分类逐渐弱化，新兴经济体加速上升，而发达经济体则表现出强烈 的抵触情绪，不愿放弃原有的中心地位。 西卢安诺夫认为，这种抵触体现在技术竞争、贸易壁垒、制裁手段等多个领域。制裁不仅针对俄罗斯， 也广泛用于打压其他国家，意图延缓其技术进步，从而维持过去几十年由西方主导的经济秩序。他强 调，新兴经济体的发展势头不可阻挡，俄罗斯主张新兴经济体应在所有国际机构与组织中持续扩大份额 和话语权。"我坚信，无论某些人是否愿意，这种结构性转变终将发生——这是世界经济的根本趋 势 ...

Group 1 - The IMF report indicates that a complete economic decoupling between China and the US could reduce global GDP by 7%, amounting to a loss of $7.4 trillion, equivalent to the combined economic output of France and Germany [2][5] - The ongoing trade tensions have evolved beyond trade disputes, now impacting technology and supply chains, leading to a downward revision of global growth expectations from 3.3% to 2.8% [4] - Emerging economies are rising in this geopolitical landscape, with Malaysia attracting $13.5 billion in foreign investment for semiconductor facilities in 2023, surpassing the total from 2013 to 2020 [7] Group 2 - Vietnam has significantly increased its exports to the US from $50 billion in 2017 to over $100 billion in 2023, with an expected economic growth rate of 5.3% by 2025, benefiting from regional trade agreements [9] - Hungary is also benefiting from Chinese investments in electric vehicle production, with an expected economic growth of 2.4% by 2025, reflecting a shift from fossil fuel dependency to electric transformation [11] - The International Bank for Settlements reports that Western companies are facing increased supply chain costs and inefficiencies due to adjustments, while emerging economies are leveraging low costs and policy flexibility for higher growth rates [13] Group 3 - China is diversifying its market strategies, with exports to ASEAN expected to surpass those to the US in 2024, indicating a significant shift in trade partnerships [15] - The self-sufficiency rate of China's semiconductor industry is projected to rise from 20% in 2018 to over 50% by 2025, showcasing a strategic response to external pressures [17] - The Belt and Road Initiative is expanding from infrastructure to digital and green sectors, with investments in over 80 countries by 2025, promoting high-tech cooperation [18] Group 4 - Global debt has reached $100 trillion, accounting for 93% of GDP, with the IMF projecting a global growth reduction of 0.2% to 7% due to US-China competition [20] - Currently, the US and China have extended a tariff truce for 90 days, with ongoing negotiations, while China's foreign trade is growing at 5.4%, benefiting emerging markets [22]

Core Points - The Netherlands has officially returned 119 Benin bronzes to Nigeria, which were looted by British troops in 1897, marking a significant step in addressing historical injustices [1] - Several European countries have begun to publicly apologize for their colonial histories and the injustices associated with them, indicating a growing recognition of past wrongs [1] - The delayed acknowledgment of colonial atrocities raises questions about the timing and sincerity of these apologies, as many occurred centuries after the events [2] - The rise of economic globalization and social media has amplified voices from developing countries, challenging the historical narrative dominated by the West [3] - Acknowledging colonial history and returning looted artifacts is seen as a step forward, but more substantial actions are needed to address the ongoing impacts of colonialism [3][4] Group 1 - The return of the Benin bronzes is viewed as a corrective measure for historical injustices [1] - Apologies from European nations for colonial actions have become more common in recent years [1] - The historical context of these apologies often spans centuries, highlighting a delayed response to past injustices [2] Group 2 - The emergence of new economic powers and the influence of social media have shifted the global narrative, allowing for greater recognition of developing countries' experiences [3] - Current social issues in Western societies are linked to historical colonial practices, prompting a reevaluation of the past [3] - There is a call for more concrete actions beyond apologies to address the legacies of colonialism and support healing [3][4]