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华东政法大学徐明:进一步优化并购重组估值逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 09:28
围绕资本市场并购重组,华东政法大学教授徐明9月26日在2025·青岛创投风投大会上表示,并购重组以 企业价值为基础和轴心,以价格机制进行调整,反映上市公司需求和根本利益,是资本市场市场化的重 要体现。近年来,我国并购重组市场活跃度较高。应进一步优化并购重组估值逻辑,提高估值质量,完 善制度合理性,提高政策适配度。 徐明指出,上市公司并购重组的目的显然是为了上市公司资源进一步整合,通过并购重组使上市公司实 现行业的整合和产业升级,实现新旧动能转化,由此实现上市公司做大做优做强。 近年来,我国并购重组市场活跃度较高。以首次披露日期为准,截至8月8日,2025年以来有88家上市公 司公开了作为竞买方的并购重组事件。徐明表示,今年通过并购重组的公司数量有望突破140家,创下 自2020年以来新高。 徐明认为,近年来我国并购重组的政策支持力度大,且效果明显。2024年以来我国颁布了一系列政策, 新"国九条""科八条""并购六条"等政策总基调都是鼓励并购重组的。所有政策都在鼓励并购重组服务新 质生产力、科技创新,支持新旧动能转型。 对于我国并购重组现状,徐明总结为"重点是突出的,方式是多样的"。他同时指出,并购重组当中也 ...
刚刚!三部门座谈,事关反内卷
天天基金网· 2025-07-20 10:11
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China is working to further regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing the current challenges of "increasing volume without increasing revenue" amid intensified price wars and trade barriers in overseas markets [3][4]. - In 2024, the profit margin of the automotive manufacturing industry is expected to decline by 7.3%, with 41.7% of automotive dealers reporting losses and 84.4% experiencing price inversions, indicating a severe "involution competition" threatening sustainable development [4]. - The meeting emphasized the need for enhanced supervision, a long-term mechanism, standard leadership, and industry self-discipline to break the vicious cycle of "subsidy dependence - price war - profit shrinkage" [4]. Group 2 - Yushu Technology has initiated its IPO process, with a strong backing from reputable institutions, and has reported an annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, making it a rare profitable company in the robotics sector [5][6]. - Yushu Technology holds over 60% of the global market share in quadruped robots and has launched two humanoid robots, H1 and G1, indicating its strong position in the industry [6]. Group 3 - In the United States, the consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, the highest in five months, driven by a significant drop in inflation expectations [7][8]. - The one-year inflation expectation decreased from 5.0% to 4.4%, and the five to ten-year expectation fell from 4.0% to 3.6%, reflecting a cautious outlook among consumers regarding future inflation risks [8]. Group 4 - The Chinese stock market has shown positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through a significant resistance level, indicating a potential upward trend [10]. - Economic data for the first half of 2025 suggests a continued recovery, with GDP growth expected at 5.3%, supported by strong internal financing and liquidity [11]. - The market is currently in a new bullish phase, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, industrial metals, and health care, which are expected to provide investment opportunities [11].
A 股风格转换的历史复盘与回测分析
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-16 11:54
Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]