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刚刚!三部门座谈,事关反内卷
天天基金网· 2025-07-20 10:11
以下文章来源于东方财富证券 ,作者东方财富证券 东方财富证券 . 【东方财富证券订阅号】东方财富证券股份有限公司简称东方财富证券,是综合类证券公司,系东方财 富信息股份有限公司(证券代码300059)旗下全资子公司。 01 / 热点评析 NEWS REVIEW 工信部:部署进一步规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序工作 0 1 7月18日,工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局联合召开新能源汽 车行业座谈会,部署进一步规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序工作。工业和信息化部 党组书记、部长李乐成出席会议并讲话,部党组成员、副部长辛国斌主持会议, 17家重点汽车企业、汽车工业协会、有关地方工业和信息化主管部门等单位负 责人参加会议。 投顾观点 本次座谈会主要针对新能源汽车行业当前"增量不增收"的困境,在价格战和海外 市场贸易壁垒加剧的背景下,2024年汽车制造业利润率同比下降7.3%。根据 《2024年全国汽车经销商生存状况调查报告》,2024年汽车经销商亏损比例达 41.7%,84.4%的汽车经销商有不同程度的价格倒挂,60.4%的汽车经销商价格 倒挂幅度在15%以上,"内卷式竞争"已威胁产业可持续发展。本次会议重点提到 ...
A 股风格转换的历史复盘与回测分析
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-16 11:54
Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]