证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 科创债 ETF 最新规模 2469 亿，增持新券 第二批科创债 ETF 上市以来，近三周规模均在 2500 亿元上下震荡，10 月 17 日最新规模为 2469 亿元。两 批 24 只科创债 ETF 中，百亿 ETF 已达到 15 只。 科创债周度发行升温，不过成交热度依然偏低。科创债净发行在 7 月第一周达到年内高点，随后震荡下滑， 10 月 13-17 日（以下简称"本周"）净发行 459 亿元，较节前一周增长 328 亿元，主要是央企集中发债，例如 国电电力、大唐集团、华润医药、中国电力建设发行规模均超 30 亿元，期限 3 年为主。成交方面，热度同样在 7 月达到高点，随后降温。本周热度相对偏低，不过仍高于科创债 ETF 上市前。科创债 ETF 上市首周（7 月14- 18 日），成交热度达到年内高点，科创债成交笔数、科创债 ETF 成分券成交笔数占信用债的 18%、14%，最近 三周在 10%、5%上下震荡，有所降温。 本周科创债 ETF 增持延续节前一周规律，依然主要是 25 年 9 ...

"十五"规划正值中国经济新旧动能转换关键期，从土地财政转向新质生 产力，需前瞻性布局科技创新和人工智能，并加强消费基础作用以应对 复杂国际形势。 "十五"规划预计将延续"十四五"期间的重点，如扩大内需、科技创新 和高质量发展，并可能设定 4.5%左右的经济增长目标，以衔接远景目 标。 "十五"规划投资重点包括促进物价回升以扩大内需，并大力发展商业航 天、低空经济、海洋经济、生物医药等新兴支柱产业，同时加强"卡脖 子"技术攻关。 "十五"规划将加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动资本市场高质量发展， 并促进居民财富储藏形式从房地产向股权投资转型，长期看好 A 股市场。 "十五"期间，固定收益市场将因土地财政退潮和新质生产力崛起而重塑， 城投债市场面临变革，科创债市场迎来发展机遇。 "十五"规划下，银行业将深化改革，强化风险防控，加速数字化转型， 并优化信贷结构，加大对科创、绿色领域的支持，有望重塑估值体系。 "十五"期间，证券行业将推动供给侧优化，提高综合服务质量，加强资 本市场制度建设，并统筹安全与发展，以适应新质生产力的发展需求。 Q&A 为什么五年规划依然非常重要？ 五年规划在中国经济和社会发展中具有重要地位， ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月24日丨华西证券(002926.SZ)公布，股东四川剑南春（集团）有限责任公司（简称"剑南 春公司"）计划自本公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内以集中竞价方式、大宗交易方式合计减持不 超过26,250,000股的公司股份，即减持股份不超过公司总股本的1%。其中：通过集中竞价方式减持本公 司股份不超过13,125,000股,即减持股份不超过公司总股本的0.5%；通过大宗交易方式减持本公司股份不 超过13,125,000股,即减持股份不超过公司总股本的0.5%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a structural prosperity in the global semiconductor industry driven by rapid growth in AI computing demand, accelerated terminal intelligence, recovery in automotive electronics, and deepening domestic substitution [1][2] - In Q2, the semiconductor sector reported revenues of 133.66 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.63 billion yuan, indicating a clear trend of profit recovery [1] - AI-related sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing, testing, and chip design are experiencing rapid performance growth, with expectations for continued prosperity in Q3 [1] Group 2 - HSBC's Chief Investment Officer for Private Banking and Wealth Management in China maintains a positive outlook on A-shares, particularly favoring high-quality growth sectors [2] - According to market consensus from Wind, companies involved in AI infrastructure, AI drivers, and AI applications are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025 compared to previous years [2] - The 500 Quality Growth Index, which focuses on mid and small-cap value growth styles, is considered to have good allocation value in the current market environment, warranting investor attention [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guangfa Securities reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with notable increases in both revenue and net profit [1] - The company achieved an operating income of 15,398,122,178.83 yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6,469,747,569.48 yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.31% [1] - The basic earnings per share were reported at 0.79 yuan per share [1] - The profit distribution plan for the first half of 2025 includes a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jiao Da Tie Fa (920027) experienced significant trading activity on August 13, 2025, with a turnover rate of 29.27% and a trading volume of 7.69 million shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 255 million yuan [1][2][3] Group 2 - The top buying seat was from Dongfang Caifu Securities Co., Ltd., Lhasa Tuanjie Road Second Securities Business Department, with a purchase amount of approximately 5.40 million yuan [1][2] - The top selling seat was also from Dongfang Caifu Securities Co., Ltd., Lhasa Tuanjie Road First Securities Business Department, with a selling amount of approximately 6.46 million yuan [1][2] - Other notable buying and selling activities included Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. and Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., with significant amounts traded [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48%, surpassing last year's October high, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.76% and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62% [1] - Over 2,600 stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.15 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The computing power, liquid cooling servers, and CPO concept stocks performed exceptionally well, with New Yisheng (300502.SZ) rising over 15%, and other notable gains from Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) at 11.66% and Cambridge Technology (603083.SH) at 9.93% [1] - PEEK materials saw collective strength, with companies like Huami New Materials (836247.BJ) and Xinhang New Materials (301076.SZ) experiencing significant increases [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with Electric Alloy (300697.SZ) rising over 9% and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) and Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) showing strong gains [2] Group 3: Economic Insights - Citic Securities noted that poor economic and employment data in the U.S. strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributing to a broad rise in the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The domestic push for "anti-involution" to optimize production factors is expected to enhance profitability across various sectors, benefiting metal prices [3] - The valuation of industrial metals is currently low, indicating potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals starting to emerge [3] Group 4: Policy and Market Sentiment - Dongguan Securities highlighted active market sentiment, suggesting an overweight position in the financial sector due to supportive policies aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of domestic capital markets [4] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.96 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 71%, indicating rising market participation and potential business opportunities for the securities industry [4] - Some sectors, including banks, coal, and logistics, experienced declines, with notable drops in stocks like Lu'an Huaneng (601699.SH) and Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) [4]

Group 1 - The company, GF Securities, announced the issuance of a short-term corporate bond (the seventh phase) aimed at professional investors, which meets the listing conditions of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - The bond, named "25 Guangfa D9," has a total issuance amount of 5 billion yuan, a term of 192 days, and a coupon rate of 1.61% [1] - The bond will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange starting from August 8, 2025, and will be traded among institutional investors through various transaction methods [1]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Gesong, the fund manager of GF Fund, has made significant adjustments to the holdings of six funds under his management, reducing positions in the new energy vehicle supply chain and semiconductor equipment companies while increasing exposure to new consumption, the internet, and military industries in Q2 2025 [1][2]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - In Q2 2025, the net value growth rate of the A-class shares of the GF Small Cap Growth Mixed Fund was 2.38%, while the C-class shares grew by 2.28%, compared to a benchmark return of 3.10% [1]. - The GF Small Cap Growth Mixed Fund experienced a notable reallocation of assets, marking the most significant adjustment in five years, attributed to the addition of two new fund managers [1][2]. Investment Focus - The GF Small Cap Growth Mixed Fund has maintained a high position in A-shares, focusing on technology growth, particularly AI-related stocks, and the defense industry [2][3]. - The fund has newly invested in Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group, Torch Electronics, AVIC Chengfei, Guorui Technology, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, marking their first entry since the fund's inception in 2005 [2]. Market Outlook - Liu Gesong expressed optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy, anticipating a recovery in overseas markets and a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions [6]. - The focus remains on identifying investment opportunities aligned with technological changes and the restructuring of global order, particularly in AI applications and undervalued Chinese defense assets [3][6]. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the GF Small Cap Growth Mixed Fund include companies such as Seres, Deyue Shares, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, and Guangdong Hongda, with significant allocations to each [5][8].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China is working to further regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing the current challenges of "increasing volume without increasing revenue" amid intensified price wars and trade barriers in overseas markets [3][4]. - In 2024, the profit margin of the automotive manufacturing industry is expected to decline by 7.3%, with 41.7% of automotive dealers reporting losses and 84.4% experiencing price inversions, indicating a severe "involution competition" threatening sustainable development [4]. - The meeting emphasized the need for enhanced supervision, a long-term mechanism, standard leadership, and industry self-discipline to break the vicious cycle of "subsidy dependence - price war - profit shrinkage" [4]. Group 2 - Yushu Technology has initiated its IPO process, with a strong backing from reputable institutions, and has reported an annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, making it a rare profitable company in the robotics sector [5][6]. - Yushu Technology holds over 60% of the global market share in quadruped robots and has launched two humanoid robots, H1 and G1, indicating its strong position in the industry [6]. Group 3 - In the United States, the consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, the highest in five months, driven by a significant drop in inflation expectations [7][8]. - The one-year inflation expectation decreased from 5.0% to 4.4%, and the five to ten-year expectation fell from 4.0% to 3.6%, reflecting a cautious outlook among consumers regarding future inflation risks [8]. Group 4 - The Chinese stock market has shown positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through a significant resistance level, indicating a potential upward trend [10]. - Economic data for the first half of 2025 suggests a continued recovery, with GDP growth expected at 5.3%, supported by strong internal financing and liquidity [11]. - The market is currently in a new bullish phase, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, industrial metals, and health care, which are expected to provide investment opportunities [11].