1/7 21:15 美国12月ADP就业人数；23:00 美国11月JOLTs职位空缺 1/8 20:30 美国12月挑战者企业裁员人数 1/9 9:30 中国12月CPI、PPI 1/9 21:30 美国12月非农就业人口、失业率、劳动参与率 重点关注 股指期货全景日报 2026/1/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） | 4753.0 | -18.0↓ IF次主力合约（2601） | 4772.8 | -12.4↓ | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3143.8 | -10.8↓ IH次主力合约（2601） | 3144.4 | -9.2↓ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 7802.6 | +40.4↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 7869.6 | +53.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7760.2 | +22.0↑ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7882.0 | +33.8↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF- ...

事件点评 PMI 超预期回升对 2026 年市场的启示 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布2025 年 12 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业PMI为 50.1% （前值为 49.2%，下同），环比提升 0.9pct；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%（49.5%）， 环比提升 0.7pct；综合 PMI 为 50.7%（49.7%），环比提升 1.0pct。 12 月制造业 PMI 超季节性、超预期大幅回升至 50.1%，创 4 月以来新高 值得注意的是，12 月制造业 PMI 的季节性是环比回落，2016-2024 年 12 月制造 业 PMI 环比回落均值为-0.3%，而 2025 年 12 月则是大幅环比回升 0.9%，为 2012 年以来最大的 12 月环比回升幅度。 1、12 月 PMI 回升，或与 10 月政策加码有关 10 月 PMI 大幅回落，表明经济阶 ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 52 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数继续稳居扩张区间，且较前期进一步抬升，显示 经济修复的内生动能仍在积累。从分项结构看，消费景气指数小幅回升，近三 周均稳定运行在荣枯线以上，表明在就业与收入预期逐步修复、促消费政策持 续发力的背景下，居民消费需求保持韧性。投资景气指数虽仍略低于荣枯线， 但回拢的趋势较为明确，投资活动的收缩压力边际缓释，表明企业投资意愿趋 稳。出口景气指数小幅回落，更多反映年末订单节奏放缓及企业阶段性结算安 排的季节性影响，外需韧性并未发生实质性改变。生产景气指数则延续上行走 势，持续处于扩张区间，对综合景气形成有力支撑。综合来看，当前景气格局 呈现生产端先行、需求端修复、结构分化延续的特征，短期波动更多体现为节 奏调整而非趋势性转弱，随着稳增长政策持续落地和预期逐步改善，经济运行 有望在扩张区间内夯实基础、稳步前行。 2025 年 11 月，中国经济运行显现出结构优化特征。工业生产稳步回升，规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，其中以装备制造业（增长 7.7%）为代表的中高端 产业贡献突出，贡献率高达 59.4%。现代服务业拉动增强，当 ...

他的政策背后是对穷国人民的歧视和对富裕的白人移民的偏爱。那种极端的移民政策，使得那些寻求庇护的非白人群体几乎无处可去。特朗普显然对自己的 功绩存在着云淡风轻的误解，这种差距让人担忧的是，国家内部的分裂是否会加剧。 接下来，特朗普信心满满地声称自己在全球范围内结束了8场战争。然而，媒体对此提出质疑，最终发现他所说的"战争"根本不够成立。当他吹嘘着外交成 就时，柬泰边境传来的炮火声却无情地打破了他的幻梦。 特朗普在17号发表了重要演讲。这场演讲不仅是对他近期政策的一种自我辩护，更是一种对众多不满情绪的回应。在这18分钟的视频中，他试图用一系列措 施来挽救自己渐趋滑落的支持率，但他的言辞能否真正令人信服，则另当别论。 特朗普第一时间就将话题引向了经济问题。按理说，经济是选票的命脉，尤其是在一个物价高涨、生活成本飙升的时代。然而，他却如同在艰难的掏心窝 子，指责一切都是拜登的错。他声称拜登执政后的四年把经济搞得一团糟，试图通过撇清自己与经济疲软的关系，来重塑公众对他的看法。 令人质疑的是，即便他如此高调地对外宣称"我在修复经济"，民调却显示出明显的反响冷淡：仅有33%的受访者支持他的经济政策，远低于他整体政策的支 持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

货币政策将总量与结构并重。周君芝表示，会议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"，预计2026年至少降准降息 一次。"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"的表述，预示更多结构性 工具将出台。 财政政策将延续扩张态势，化债与改革同步推进。周君芝认为，会议强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量""重视解决地方财政困难"，预计2026年赤字率维持4%，中长期特别国债至少1.5万亿 元，专项债或扩至5万亿元。因今年近1.4万亿元专项债用于化债导致项目资金受限，明年规模提升将兼 顾化债与投资需求。同时，"健全地方税体系"指向税制改革落地，消费税征收环节后移、共享税比例优 化值得期待。 中证报中证网讯（记者 谭丁豪）2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中信建投证 券宏观经济首席分析师周君芝表示，积极政策取向未变，有利于经济修复和资产价格。2024年会议将财 政政策从"积极"调整为"更加积极"，货币政策从"稳健"改为"适度宽松"。今年定调与去年一致，明确"实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"， ...

11月的A股真是让人磨性子，沪指深证成指创业板指都在震荡调整，不少朋友跟我吐槽，手里的票拿也 不是卖也不是，眼看12月来了，到底该往哪使劲？作为做了20年财经记者、一直盯着中长线的投资者， 今天就用聊天的方式，跟大家拆解券商刚出炉的12月金股，看看机构都在偷偷布局啥。 还有一块不能忽视的是防御性资产，光大证券提到，市场震荡的时候，前期滞涨的高股息和消费板块往 往表现更稳。对中长线投资者来说，不用把所有资金都押在进攻型品种上，配一些高股息低波动的资 产，能让持仓更稳健。另外，海外降息和财政扩张的大背景下，黄金、铜这些全球定价的资源品，还有 受益于海外信用周期重启的外需制造业，也可以左侧关注起来，提前卡位布局。 做了20年财经记者，我一直跟大家说，中长线投资拼的不是猜短期涨跌，而是看逻辑、看趋势。12月的 市场大概率还是以震荡蓄势为主，但机会已经在慢慢浮现：顺周期跟着政策底和经济修复的逻辑走，科 技选低拥挤赛道避开风险，高股息做防御打底。咱们不用被短期的市场波动牵着鼻子走，盯着这些核心 方向，找估值合理、逻辑扎实的标的，耐心持有，自然能等到趋势兑现。 要不要我帮你把这些核心方向对应的优质标的清单整理出来，方便你直 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are appropriate pullbacks [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory front - running" after the US government's restart and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. With the absence of key inflation and employment data, the market has shifted from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the US dollar's rebound and lowering US Treasury yields. The financial attributes of precious metals have been continuously strengthened. However, the impact of the expected difference after front - running should be警惕 [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend overall, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals has not been reflected. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak funds in place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan of local government's unused quota withdrawals implemented in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are pullbacks in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.2 Market Performance of Various Asset Classes - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4565.2, up 0.22% daily, - 0.77% weekly, - 1.43% monthly, - 1.14% quarterly, and up 16.43% this year; the SSE 50 futures closed at 3011, up 0.45% daily, - 0.64% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, 0.74% quarterly, and up 12.43% this year; the CSI 500 futures closed at 7054.8, down 0.35% daily, - 2.59% monthly, - 3.23% quarterly, and up 23.92% this year; the CSI 1000 futures closed at 7298.2, down 0.73% daily, - 1.00% weekly, - 0.95% monthly, - 1.46% quarterly, and up 24.74% this year [3]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102,462, down 0.03% daily, 0.01% weekly, - 0.08% monthly, 0.09% quarterly, and down 0.50% this year; the 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.88, down 0.04% daily, 0.00% weekly, - 0.17% monthly, 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.62% this year; the 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.425, down 0.07% daily, - 0.23% monthly, 0.54% quarterly, and down 0.46% this year; the 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 116.09, down 0.38% daily, - 0.06% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, 1.92% quarterly, and down 2.314% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 99.5932, unchanged daily, up 0.31% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, - 8.19% this year; the euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1581; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was 155.525, up 0.64% weekly, 0.98% monthly, 5.14% quarterly, - 1.07% this year; the central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0872, up 16 pips daily, 47 pips weekly, - 8 pips monthly, - 183 pips quarterly, - 1012 pips this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.55, unchanged daily, up 8 bp weekly, 9 bp monthly, 10 bp quarterly, - 20 bp this year; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.82, up 0.6 bp daily, 0.4 bp weekly, 2.3 bp monthly, - 4.3 bp quarterly, 0.1 bp this year; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.12, down 1 bp daily, - 2 bp weekly, 0.1 bp monthly, - 4 bp quarterly, - 43 bp this year; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.54, up 1 bp daily, 0 bp weekly, - 0.02 bp monthly, - 2 bp quarterly, 21 bp this year [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: For example, COMEX gold was at 4067.4, up 0.55% daily, - 0.42% weekly, 1.35% monthly, 4.62% quarterly, and up 54.11% this year; NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 60.57, up 1.42% daily, 1.03% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, - 2.98% quarterly, - 11.72% this year [3]. - **Domestic Commodities**: For example, domestic gold was at 937, up 2.01% daily, - 1.70% weekly, 1.64% monthly, 7.16% quarterly, and up 51.72% this year; the Shanghai - Europe container shipping line was at 1640.1, down 2.26% daily, 2.19% weekly, 5.57% monthly, - 0.16% quarterly, - 27.33% this year [2][4]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Views - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner; stock index options are expected to be volatile; Treasury futures are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Shipping**: The Shanghai - Europe container shipping line is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, coal, and building materials are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with some like aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, while oils and fats are expected to rise in a volatile manner, and some agricultural products like live pigs and sugar are expected to fall in a volatile manner [11]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with some like natural rubber and cotton expected to be volatile, and some like live pigs and sugar expected to fall in a volatile manner [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][13] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: This week, the core driver of major assets lies in the resonance between the "anticipatory front - running" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. Key inflation and employment data are still lacking, causing the market to shift from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the rebound of the US dollar and lowering US Treasury yields, and continuously strengthening the financial attributes of precious metals. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of expectation differences after front - running [5] - Domestic macro: In October, the overall economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the pulling effect of incremental policies on the fundamentals has not been reflected yet. In the context of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak capital in - place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The two incremental policies implemented in October are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in October was 6.2%, and the financial data generally met expectations [5] - Asset view: The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter has not changed much, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation among major assets in the fourth quarter. Long - positions should continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Price Changes - Various commodities have different price changes in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations. For example, lithium carbonate has an 8.97% daily increase, 17.85% monthly increase, 30.66% quarterly increase, and 23.48% annual increase, showing relatively strong performance [2] 3.2 Macro Summary - Overseas: The core driver of major assets is the resonance between "anticipatory front - running" and looser liquidity expectations. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, but there are risks of expectation differences [5] - Domestic: The economic data in October continued the weak and stable trend. Incremental policies are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter, and financial data met expectations [5] - Asset allocation: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation in the fourth quarter, hold long - positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [5] 3.3 Sector and Variety Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [6] - Stock index options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to be weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel: The actual supply and demand are both weak, but the futures market is firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Iron ore: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the restocking demand needs to be released, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coke: The price increase over the weekend has been implemented, and the supply continues to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to recover continuously, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Silicon iron: The supply and demand are loose, and the price is under pressure, but the cost support is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Manganese silicon: The supply and demand situation remains loose, and there is no upward driving force for the price, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Glass: The supply and demand are still in excess, and inventory contradictions are accumulating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Soda ash: The demand for light soda ash is strong, and there is still cost support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Due to the tight US monetary liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in excess, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Aluminum/zinc: The stock - futures linkage leads to an oscillatory upward trend of the aluminum price, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level, with short - term judgments of oscillatory rise and oscillation respectively [6] - Lead: Social inventories are slightly accumulating, and the lead price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Industrial silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Lithium carbonate: The restart expectation is repeated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against large price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthened, and there are still geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - LPG: The refinery's external supply has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Asphalt: The situation between the US and Venezuela has cooled down, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillated lower this week, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Urea: Downstream buyers follow up at low prices, and the futures price is regarded as oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Ethylene glycol: The number of maintenance of existing plants has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. The price may fluctuate in a low - level range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PX: The expectation of aromatics for oil blending and BIS sentiment have fermented, and the efficiency and valuation remain firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - PTA: The news sentiment has significantly boosted, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the support below the processing fee has increased, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Short - fiber: There is some support from the raw material end, but the processing fee has room to be compressed under weak demand expectations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Bottle chips: There is raw material support, but the profit is in a stalemate due to the game between high inventory and weak demand, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Propylene: Downstream transactions have increased, and PL is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Plastic: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the support of the raw material end, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Styrene: The narrative of aromatics for oil blending has caused short - positions to reduce, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Caustic soda: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures market is cautiously weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - Fats and oils: It may oscillate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand situation of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Protein meal: The US soybean price fell overnight, and the two types of meal reduced positions and made up for the decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Corn/starch: They continue to oscillate at a high level, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Pigs: The supply pressure persists, and the pig price is running weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Natural rubber: It is waiting for a driving force and oscillating within a range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Synthetic rubber: The futures market has temporarily entered an oscillatory consolidation phase, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Cotton: There is a short - term risk of correction, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Sugar: The rebound momentum is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Pulp: The futures price is oscillating at a high level, and the long - dominated pattern remains unchanged, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Double - offset paper: Paper enterprises are holding up prices, and the spot price has stopped falling, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]

Group 1: Export Performance - In October, the export amount in USD decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from September[4] - Adjusting for base effects, the two-year average export growth rates were 5.3% in September and 5.8% in October, indicating strong export activity[4] - Exports to major economies like the US, Japan, and ASEAN showed increases, while exports to Russia, India, and Brazil also rebounded significantly[4] Group 2: Import Trends - October imports increased by 1% year-on-year, down 6.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Imports from the US fell by 22.1%, a decline of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a broader slowdown in imports from the EU and Japan[6] Group 3: Price Indices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive change of the year, while the year-on-year PPI was -2.1%[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a significant rise of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal factors and rising gold prices[11] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that high export growth is likely to continue in the coming months due to strong global demand and improved US-China trade relations[5] - The overall economic environment is characterized by a "hot external and cold internal" situation, indicating a supply-demand imbalance[13]