Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The production index recorded 51.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, while the new orders index reached 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points, marking the first time in 23 months that new orders exceeded production[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand recovery is stronger than production, with new orders showing significant improvement driven by high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods[1][4] - New export orders increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, the highest since May 2024, indicating resilient external demand despite geopolitical tensions[3] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 63.9%, a significant increase of 9.1 percentage points, while the factory price index increased to 55.4%, up 4.6 percentage points[4][6] - Brent crude oil averaged $98.71 per barrel in March, up 42% month-on-month, contributing to rising costs in logistics and raw materials[6] Inventory and Procurement - The procurement index rose to 50.9%, indicating a return to expansion, while raw materials inventory index remained at 47.7%, indicating a cautious approach to inventory replenishment[7] - Finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.7%, reflecting limited recovery in stock levels despite improved procurement activities[7] Sector Performance - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing reached 52.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors recorded PMIs of 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating broad-based sectoral recovery[4][8] - Small and medium enterprises showed marginal improvement, with PMIs of 49.3% and 49.0%, respectively, still below the expansion threshold[8]

Group 1 - The report discusses the current market's focus on the direction of the bond market amid a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, emphasizing the need to monitor factors beyond inflation that could exceed expectations [1][7] - Key factors influencing the bond market include the recovery strength and sustainability of the macroeconomic fundamentals, which are seen as the core contradictions to watch in the next phase [4][9] - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to a shift in long-term macro narratives, with a focus on the transition from old to new economic drivers and the easing of credit contraction pressures [10][12] Group 2 - The report suggests that the bond market environment in the first half of 2026 will differ from that of 2025, with limited downward space for bond yields and potential upward risks requiring new catalysts [16] - Investment strategies for credit bonds should focus on the 3-year maturity range, with a cautious approach to duration while seeking opportunities in the upcoming credit market [19][21] - The report highlights the anticipated recovery of perpetual bonds issuance in the second quarter, with manageable pressure expected, particularly in the context of the evolving demand dynamics [23][24] Group 3 - The report identifies the next observation window for the growth of credit bond ETFs as potentially occurring in April-May, driven by market conditions and the recent regulatory changes in the technology innovation bond sector [25][26] - The recent decline in the convertible bond market is linked to external shocks and a risk-averse approach by investors, leading to significant reductions in positions [27][28] - Future pricing logic in the convertible bond market will increasingly depend on how equities are priced in response to external shocks, with a focus on potential mispricing opportunities relative to equities [29]

Group 1 - The policy direction from the Two Sessions emphasizes pragmatic and high-quality development, with a more optimized fiscal structure [1][7] - The government work report sets the GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5.0%, down from around 5% last year, indicating a more realistic approach without weakening fiscal efforts [7][12] - Fiscal spending for consumption is increased to 350 billion yuan, up from 300 billion yuan last year, which is expected to support demand and potentially drive up prices [7][8] Group 2 - There is room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions within the year, but the timing remains uncertain; fiscal efforts may steepen the yield curve [26][27] - The focus of monetary policy in 2026 may shift from lowering policy rates to ensuring smooth transmission of monetary policy [26][27] - The probability of a rate cut in March is low, with a greater likelihood of an RRR cut, which may have limited impact on the bond market [27][28] Group 3 - The downward space for the 10-year government bond yield is limited, and long-term bonds may enter a "profit-taking" window [44][46] - The bond market may face increased supply of long-term bonds, which could steepen the yield curve, as banks' capacity to absorb long-term bonds may be tested [28][29] - The core contradiction in the bond market will be the interplay between price recovery, nominal growth restoration, and asset allocation rebalancing [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, bond yields "declined first and then rose", with an overall slight decline. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield remained around 1.78%, down about 5BP from the previous week's high of 1.83%. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.29%, with the central value down about 2BP from the previous week. The long - end decline was larger, driving the term spread to widen by 3BP to 48.6BP. The main reasons for the decline in bond yields are the policy tone of the Two Sessions, the central bank's continuation of a "precise, powerful, flexible and appropriate" monetary policy, low capital prices, geopolitical conflicts, and the slow progress of macro - economic repair. The bond market is in an operating pattern supported by a loose environment with limited supply disturbances. In the future, attention should be paid to the phased impact of geopolitical changes, the implementation of Two Sessions policies, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds on the bond market [3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Aspect - The monetary policy continues the loose orientation, and market liquidity remains abundant. The policy tone is clearly loose, with the government continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and focusing on key areas. There was a large - scale net withdrawal in the open - market operations this week, with a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan. However, the central bank used repurchase operations to hedge the due funds, and the overall liquidity of the banking system remained abundant [4] Fundamental Aspect - The growth target is realistically lowered, and the economic repair momentum is weak. The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, which is slightly lower but in line with expectations. The manufacturing PMI in February was in the contraction range, and high - frequency data showed that the economic repair was slow, with the production and price ends remaining weak [5] Supply Aspect - The issuance scale has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased temporarily. The overall bond issuance scale this week reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with a net supply increase. Both interest - rate bonds and credit bonds increased in supply, and local government bonds were the main contributor to the increase. The government's fiscal deficit rate is maintained at 4%, and the supply of ultra - long - term bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, which will relieve the long - end supply concerns in the short term [6] Capital Aspect - Liquidity remains abundant, and the capital price center has moved down. The inter - bank and financial institution capital interest rates have generally declined, and the market liquidity has maintained a loose pattern. Although the central bank's capital withdrawal in the OMO market and repurchase market was higher than the investment this week, the capital price remained low, indicating that the overall liquidity of the banking system is abundant [7] Overseas Market Aspect - The sudden conflict between the US and Iran had a limited impact on Treasury bonds. On February 28, the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran led to a blockage of oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It also pushed up the prices of safe - haven assets such as gold, but had little impact on Treasury bond yields [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, in January, affected by the Spring Festival misalignment factor, the year-on-year CPI was lower than expected, while both the year-on-year and month-on-month PPI improved. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, the strength of the credit start was weak, and in terms of structure, short-term loans increased year-on-year, while corporate loans and long-term household loans were weak. Overseas, the liquidity in the US has improved, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year. - The central bank conducted 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 2.2524 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase, 300 billion yuan in MLF, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 577.4 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48%. - The latest 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 2.32 BP week-on-week; the 30-year treasury bond yield closed at 2.29%, up 4.60 BP week-on-week; the latest 10-year US treasury bond yield was 3.97%, down 11.00 BP week-on-week. - In general, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of household income and policy support. The central bank's Q4 2025 monetary policy implementation report shows that it will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and emphasize the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. The capital market is expected to remain loose. Recently, the allocation power in the bond market has been strong, but the impact of the stock market and inflation expectations on the rhythm still needs to be monitored. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate. [10][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In January, affected by the Spring Festival misalignment factor, the year-on-year CPI was lower than expected, while both the year-on-year and month-on-month PPI improved. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, the strength of the credit start was weak, and in terms of structure, short-term loans increased year-on-year, while corporate loans and long-term household loans were weak. Overseas, the liquidity in the US has improved, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 2.2524 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase, 300 billion yuan in MLF, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 577.4 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48%. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 2.32 BP week-on-week; the 30-year treasury bond yield closed at 2.29%, up 4.60 BP week-on-week; the latest 10-year US treasury bond yield was 3.97%, down 11.00 BP week-on-week. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, inflation recovery still poses potential pressure on the bond market. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable. Overall, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of household income and policy support. The capital market is expected to remain loose. Recently, the allocation power in the bond market has been strong, but the impact of the stock market and inflation expectations on the rhythm still needs to be monitored. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a profit-to-loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of improving credit. [10][12][14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract. - **TL Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract. - **TF Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract. - **TS Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract. - **TS and TF Positions**: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts. - **T and TL Positions**: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts. [17][22][24][26][31][36] 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: In Q3 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. The economic growth in the first three quarters of this year maintained resilience. - PMI: In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Overall, both the manufacturing and service sectors declined. - Price Index: In January, the year-on-year CPI increased by 0.2%, the previous value was 0.8%; the year-on-year core CPI increased by 0.8%, the previous value was 1.2%; the year-on-year PPI was -1.4%, the previous value was -1.9%. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI in January increased by 0.2%, the previous value was 0.2%; the core CPI increased by 0.3%, the previous value was 0.2%; the PPI increased by 0.4%, the previous value was 0.2%. - Export: In December 2025, China's export data was generally stronger than expected. In December, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.9%. In December, imports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the previous value was 1.9%. - Industrial Added Value: In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, the previous value was 4.8%, and the industrial production growth rate rebounded. - Social Consumer Goods Retail Sales: In December, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value of 1.3%. The growth rate of retail sales declined due to the high base and diminishing marginal utility of durable goods such as automobiles and household appliances. - Fixed Asset Investment: From January to December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -3.8%, the previous value was -2.6%; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -17.2%, the previous value was -15.9%, and the real estate market continued to adjust; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding power was -2.2%, the previous value was -1.1%; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, the previous value was 1.9%, and the growth rate slowed down. - Real Estate: In December, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587.7 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, the previous value was -20.5%; the cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.5989 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, the previous value was -9.6%. The cumulative year-on-year data of the completion end in December decreased by 18.16%, the previous value was -18.06%. The new housing sales data in 30 large and medium-sized cities has been weak recently, and the sustainability of the real estate improvement remains to be observed. [41][47][50][53][56][60][63][66] - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In Q4, the annualized current-price GDP of the US was 3.149 trillion US dollars, with an actual year-on-year growth rate of 2.23% and a month-on-month growth rate of 1.40%. In January, the year-on-year CPI in the US increased by 2.4%, the previous value was 2.7%. In January, the year-on-year core CPI in the US increased by 2.5%, the previous value was 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, the previous value was 0.0%. In December, the order amount of durable goods in the US was 319.6 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%, the previous value was 12.45%. In January, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, exceeding the expected increase of 70,000; the unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%. In January, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 52.6, higher than the expected 48.5 and the previous value of 47.9; the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 53.8, slightly lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 54.4. - EU Economy: In Q4, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of the EU was 1.5%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.3%. In January, the year-on-year CPI in the eurozone increased by 1.7%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 1.9%; the month-on-month decrease was 0.5%, greater than the expected decrease of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. In January, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.4, higher than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 48.8; the initial value of the service PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52.6 and the previous value of 52.4. [69][72][75][78] 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In January, the growth rate of M1 was 4.9%, the previous value was 3.8%; the growth rate of M2 was 9.0%, the previous value was 8.5%. The growth rate of M1 rebounded in January, mainly affected by the base effect and the high growth of corporate and government deposits. - **Social Financing Scale**: In January, the increment of social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, compared with 7.05 trillion yuan in the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In January, the balance of MLF was 6.95 trillion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was 700 billion yuan. [83][89] 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report presents the latest market interest rates, including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields, as well as their daily, weekly, and monthly changes. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index. [92][103]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - January manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December's 50.1%[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month's 50.2%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI Changes - The significant drop in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand[2] - The national migration scale index increased from 4% to approximately 8.6% year-on-year, indicating an earlier return home[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors, such as consumer goods and high-energy industries, saw larger PMI declines of 2.1 and 1 percentage points, respectively, to 48.3% and 47.9%[3] - The construction sector's PMI dropped 4 percentage points to 48.8%, while service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 49.5%, down only 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction due to the Spring Festival, the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue in the coming months[4] - Service sector expectations may improve due to increased travel and holiday consumption, supported by recent policy measures[4]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for December 2025 indicates a stable recovery, with rising prices in non-ferrous metals, a manufacturing PMI returning to expansion, and growth in medium to long-term corporate loans [1] Economic Indicators - **CPI**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 0.7% to 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices showing a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 1.1% year-on-year increase [3] - **PPI**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -2.2% to -1.9% year-on-year, driven by rising prices in non-ferrous metals, which saw a 24.0% increase in mining and a 10.8% increase in smelting and processing [4] - **PMI**: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.2% to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion for large enterprises, while small enterprises remain in contraction [5] - **Fixed Investment**: Total fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate investment down by 17.2%, while equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8% [6] - **Credit Growth**: New RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan, with medium to long-term corporate loans increasing significantly [7][8] - **M2 Growth**: The M2 money supply growth rate increased to 8.5%, up from 8.0%, indicating a rebound in liquidity [8]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data for December 2025 indicates a stable recovery in the economy, with rising prices in non-ferrous metals, a return of the manufacturing PMI to the expansion zone, and growth in medium to long-term corporate loans. However, the economic environment for small and medium-sized enterprises remains challenging, and the real estate market continues to exert significant downward pressure on prices and investments [1]. Group 1: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 0.7% to 0.8% year-on-year, with food CPI rising 1.1% year-on-year, marking a continuous five-month growth [4][2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -2.2% to -1.9% year-on-year, reflecting a narrowing decline in industrial product prices due to rising raw material costs and the impact of policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [7][5]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Investment - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.2% to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion for large enterprises, while small enterprises remain in a contraction zone [10][8]. - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with real estate investment down 17.2%, while equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by policy initiatives [14][11]. Group 3: Credit and Money Supply - New RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan in December, with medium to long-term corporate loans increasing by 330 billion yuan, driven by recent policy financial tools [17][15]. - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant rebound, primarily due to a reduction in non-bank deposits [20][18].