Group 1: Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 91,000 yuan/ton and closed at 95,400 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 511,279 lots, and the open interest was 343,199 lots, down from 365,078 lots the previous day. The current basis is 810 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,615 lots, a change of 105 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,800 - 94,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 88,300 - 91,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,120 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price is in the range of 90,000 - 92,000 yuan, downstream material factories increase their procurement, and market transactions become more active. As the futures price rises to around 95,000 yuan, downstream material factories reduce their price - fixing behavior. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient [1]. Group 2: New Energy Policy - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in 2026. The bidding does not distinguish between project types. The bidders are new energy projects that were put into operation (fully grid - connected) between June 1, 2025 (inclusive) and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), have not been included in the mechanism electricity price implementation scope, and voluntarily participate [2]. - The total scale of the bidding electricity is 1.2 billion kWh in 2026. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.3598 yuan/kWh. The upper limit of the declared electricity volume for a single project does not exceed the estimated annual on - grid electricity volume, which is determined by multiplying the installed capacity by the annual average power generation utilization hours and deducting the power consumption of the power plant. The annual average power generation utilization hours for photovoltaic power generation in Beijing is 1,450 hours, and for wind power is 2,000 hours, with a power plant power consumption rate of 3%. The implementation period for the selected projects' mechanism electricity price is 12 years [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Currently, there are significant differences in the consumer end. There are large differences in the overall production scheduling expectations after the decline in the power end in the first - quarter off - season of 2026 and the supplement of energy storage. In the short term, it cannot be falsified, and the futures market may maintain high - level volatile operation [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and the resumption of production at the mine end, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. For inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading, there are no specific strategies. For options, sell out - of - the - money options on both sides [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. The downstream replenishment willingness for polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high-cost period of the dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, and the silicon enterprise start-up rate significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long-term order demand are in production, while the furnace start-up in the north is relatively stable. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is range operation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start-up of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton, and the basis was -3,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,415 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of demand, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have strong resistance to high-priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro sentiment, and those with previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Other Information - On November 21, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in the city in 2026. The electricity volume scale newly included in the mechanism in 2026 is 1.2 billion kWh, and the upper limit of the bidding price for wind power and photovoltaic power is 0.3598 yuan/kWh [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an Australian photovoltaic application report, showing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia in 2024 was 5.2GW, and the total national installed capacity reached 40GW, including 26.1GW in distributed systems and 13.4GW in centralized systems. The newly installed capacity in 2024 has exceeded the historical cumulative installed capacity of 5.1GW in Australia as of the end of 2015 [1].