点击注册小程序 本周数据更新： 本周国内动力煤价格周环比平稳，秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤（中国北方，平仓价）突破830元/吨。进口煤 价格周环比上行显著，其中防城港5500大卡动力煤（印度尼西亚，场地价）本周周环比上涨10元/吨；广 州港5500大卡动力煤（澳洲优混，场地价）本周周环比上涨25元/吨。电价方面，本周（11.17-11.21）广 东（加权平均电价）、山西（出清算数均值，实时市场）现货结算价格周环比均有所下降。，继蒙东、蒙 西、宁夏之后，本月四川、江西和广东系统运行费中新增"136号文"的新能源机制电价差价结算费；本月 广东代理购电价格同比-13%，四川/江西分别同比-5%/-2%，反映"136号文"电价对于广东新增绿电机组影 响较大，整体绿电价格承压。 本周重点事件： 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而 ...

"136号文"发布至今，已有6省完成了增量项目首轮机制电价竞价。由于各地增量项目机制电价执行期限约为10—12年，可以说 这些竞价结果预示了各省新能源项目的未来境况。 华夏能源网统计，目前完成增量项目首轮机制电价竞价的省份分别为山东、云南、新疆、甘肃、江西以及广东，竞价结果如 下： 广东0.36元/千瓦时；江西风电0.337元/千瓦时、光伏0.33元/千瓦时；云南光伏0.33元/千瓦时、风电0.332元/千瓦时；新疆风电 0.252元/千瓦时、光伏0.235元/千瓦时；山东风电0.319元/千瓦时、光伏0.225元/千瓦时；甘肃0.1954元/千瓦时。 让人大惑不解的是，甘肃的机制电价竟然垫底了。无论是新能源装机更多的新疆，还是"光伏第一大省"山东，机制电价都高于 甘肃。如果不出意外的话，甘肃的机制电价很可能会在全国垫底。 文 | 华夏能源网 值得注意的是，甘肃"136号文"落地文件规定，新能源机制电价竞价上下限区间为0.1954-0.2447元/千瓦时，也就是说最后竞配的 机制电价是压着下限成交的。这也是其他省份所没有的情况。 | 省份 | 公示日期 | 竞价区间 | 增量机制电价 | 执行期限 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is a leading region in renewable energy installation, with significant advancements in solar and wind power, and is at the forefront of electricity market reforms in China [1][4]. Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Capacity - As of July 2023, Shandong has a total renewable energy installation of 119 million kilowatts, with solar power accounting for 91.3 million kilowatts and wind power for 27.49 million kilowatts, making it the top province in solar capacity in the country [1][4]. Electricity Pricing Mechanism - On September 11, 2023, Shandong's Development and Reform Commission announced the results of the 2025 renewable energy mechanism electricity price bidding, with a total scale of 9.467 billion kilowatt-hours. Wind power received 5.967 billion kilowatt-hours at a bid price of 0.319 yuan per kilowatt-hour, while solar power received 1.248 billion kilowatt-hours at 0.225 yuan per kilowatt-hour [2]. Bidding Insights - The slightly lower bid price for solar power was attributed to the limited allocation of mechanism electricity, leading to "panic" pricing, while the higher price for wind power was due to a larger allocation [3]. Distributed Solar Power Development - By June 2025, Shandong's distributed solar power capacity is expected to reach nearly 60 million kilowatts, representing about two-thirds of the total solar capacity. The development of household distributed solar power is projected to exceed 50% by the end of 2024 [7]. Economic Benefits for Rural Areas - The development of household distributed solar power significantly increases income for rural residents, with each household potentially earning over 3,000 yuan annually from rooftop leasing and an initial installation fee exceeding 20,000 yuan [7]. "Shandong Model" for Solar Development - The "Shandong Model" for solar development involves a collaborative approach among government, installation entities, and grid companies, focusing on household-led, village-wide development and full-grid connection [8]. Challenges in Energy Consumption - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in energy consumption, particularly due to the intermittent nature of solar power generation, which does not align well with the continuous power needs of Shandong's industrial sector [10][12]. Future Directions for Renewable Energy - The focus for future renewable energy development in Shandong includes enhancing wind power and energy storage systems to better match energy supply with demand, particularly addressing the challenges posed by solar power's generation patterns [16][18]. Offshore Wind Power Resources - Shandong has rich offshore wind resources, with plans for significant offshore wind projects, including 12 offshore wind farms already established by the end of 2024 [17]. Energy Storage Development - The goal is to establish 3 million kilowatts of new energy storage by 2025, with an emphasis on improving market mechanisms for energy storage to enhance competitiveness [19]. Direct Power Supply to Industries - The strategy of direct power supply from renewable energy sources to industrial clients is gaining traction, with significant growth in commercial solar installations, which are expected to exceed 30 million kilowatts by mid-2025 [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the sector to perform better than the market in the next six months [4][61]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the public utility sector index has decreased by 1.84%, underperforming compared to major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [2][13]. - Key developments include the release of the "136 Document" in Ningxia, which outlines pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, and adjustments to coal power capacity pricing in Guangdong [3][38]. - The report suggests that the long-term demand for thermal power remains stable, with coal prices expected to stabilize or decline, supporting profit margins for thermal power companies [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The public utility sector index's PE (TTM) is reported at 18.42, down from 18.77 the previous week, while the PB is at 1.51, down from 1.54 [1][22][26]. - The sector's performance ranks 13th among 31 sectors, with specific declines noted in various sub-sectors such as thermal and hydropower [2][13]. Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory changes in Shandong and Ningxia are expected to impact pricing and market participation for renewable energy projects [3][35][38]. - The report tracks coal prices, noting a slight increase in the price of Shanxi mixed coal to 649 RMB/ton, with other regional prices also rising [3][40]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on green certificate trading, with a total of 4.31 and 11.39 thousand transactions for wind and solar power respectively during the week [6][44]. - CEA trading volumes for the week were reported at 31.02, 65.80, 33.33, 66.70, and 52.27 thousand tons, with average prices fluctuating around 71.89 to 74.78 RMB/ton [6][46].