1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply disturbance risk persists, and lithium carbonate shows slightly stronger performance. The supply - demand expectation of new energy metals has weakened. In the short term, the demand expectation is weak, and new energy metals are under pressure, but the supply disturbance supports the price of lithium carbonate. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - side contraction expectation path of polysilicon has changed from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, with its price expected to fluctuate widely; industrial silicon supply and demand are in surplus, and its price is expected to be under pressure; lithium ore production capacity is rising, and demand growth is also fast, with the expected surplus narrowing, and the supply - demand improvement is expected to push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 23, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton. As of last week, the domestic inventory was 435,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; market inventory was 184,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; factory inventory was 251,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In February, the export of industrial silicon was 47,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; the cumulative export from January to February was 113,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9% [7]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts cause energy concerns, and the recent rise in coal prices provides cost support for industrial silicon. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production capacity of large factories in Xinjiang has partially recovered after the Spring Festival, and the operation rates in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia are at a high level, with the supply in the northwest currently stable; the operation rate in the southwest has dropped to a very low level during the dry season, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. In the long run, the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, some silicon material factories continue to shut down for maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; silicone enterprises continue to hold prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is mainly based on rigid needs; the operation rate of the aluminum alloy is expected to recover after the Spring Festival, but the demand for industrial silicon is limited [7]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is still in a loose pattern. In the short term, the rise in coal prices provides cost support, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 23, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 43.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/kg. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,810 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0 lots [8]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the macro - hedging sentiment has increased, and most risk assets have declined, dragging down the polysilicon price. On the supply side, it is currently the dry season, and the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest is still in a state of reduction, with the overall production at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is still low, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is also increasing, putting pressure on the price. In the medium - to long - term, considering that the polysilicon supply is also shrinking, and leading enterprises are strengthening integration and mergers, the long - term supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price, but considering that the supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation in the medium - to long - term [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Information**: On March 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.6% to 149,040 yuan/ton. The morning - session spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 145,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton, and the evening - session market price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the morning - session price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 142,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton, and the evening - session price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 781 lots to 33,537 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The supply disturbance has not been resolved, and the terminal demand has weakened. The lithium price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the first quarter of 2026, the supply remains relatively strong. According to customs data, the imports of lithium ore and lithium carbonate from January to February have maintained good growth. At the same time, the demand is differentiated. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is not good, but the production of cathode materials at the primary end is still booming, which needs further verification. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance. The Middle East geopolitical events cause the market to switch between recession expectations and energy substitution expectations, and the market lacks a strong driving force, so the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index is not described in detail. The commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, an increase of 1.73% [48]. - **板块指数**: For the new energy commodity index on March 23, 2026, the current price was 479.82, with a daily decline of 1.77%, a decline of 7.50% in the past 5 days, a decline of 7.56% in the past month, and a decline of 5.86% since the beginning of the year [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side expectations are fluctuating, and new energy metals will continue to experience wide fluctuations. In the short to medium term, due to the repeated supply-side expectations, new energy metals will maintain wide fluctuations. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. - For industrial silicon, there is still long-term overcapacity pressure, and the silicon price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, due to the fluctuating policy expectations, the polysilicon price will experience wide fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, with weak supply and demand drivers, the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of February 9, the price of oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang was 8,700 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,850 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Information**: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 422,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%; among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the factory inventory was 235,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [7]. - **Production Information**: In January, the industrial silicon output was 320,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - **Export Information**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest region during the dry season continued to decline. Currently, Sichuan has basically stopped production, and the operation in Yunnan has dropped to a low level. In addition, large northwest factories implemented production cuts at the end of January, and the domestic industrial silicon supply in February is expected to further decrease, alleviating the short-term supply pressure. However, in the long term, the operation of northwest silicon factories is expected to resume, and the operation in the southwest region will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long-term overcapacity pressure. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, and some silicon material factories have further shut down for maintenance, resulting in a continuously weak demand for industrial silicon; organic silicon enterprises have cut production to support prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is also relatively weak; the demand for industrial silicon in the aluminum alloy industry remains stable. Overall, after the large factories cut production, the supply-demand balance in February is expected to improve. However, in the medium to long term, the silicon price is still under pressure, as the supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large and the demand is weak, and there is still overcapacity pressure in the industry [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the current market sentiment is fluctuating. It is believed that the silicon price will show a fluctuating trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On February 9, the average transaction price of N-type dense material was 57.5 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/kg [7]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: On February 9, the latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,610 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 0 lots [7]. - **Export and Import Information**: In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest region has gradually decreased, and the current polysilicon output is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to contract. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is also rising simultaneously. However, considering that the Ministry of Finance announced on its official website that the photovoltaic export tax rebate will be cancelled starting from April 1, 2026, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic products in the first quarter in China, which will boost the short-term demand for polysilicon. Overall, the weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still expected to continue to contract, the polysilicon supply and demand are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant policies of polysilicon [8]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still contracting, it is believed that the polysilicon price may show a wide fluctuating trend [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Information**: On February 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total position of the lithium carbonate contracts increased by 8,687 lots to 645,262 lots [9]. - **Spot Price and Warehouse Receipt Information**: On February 9, the morning spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the morning price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 134,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The warehouse receipts on that day increased by 820 lots to 34,597 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but there is a marginal weakening, and sentiment has a greater impact on the price. In January, the performance of new energy vehicles was poor due to the overdraft phenomenon, but there was also maintenance on the supply side, and the overall supply and demand remained in a tight balance. In February, the supply and demand sides may continue to face production cuts due to maintenance by some enterprises. After the price correction, the downstream is actively stocking up. Before the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo mine, it is expected that the tight balance will still be maintained in February, and the social inventory will not significantly accumulate. However, close attention should be paid to the negative feedback of energy storage and the vehicle end on the price increase, and the rhythm of supply expansion should also be noted, as there is an expectation of concentrated supply expansion in the second quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,374.89, an increase of 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2,710.51, an increase of 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2,278.80, an increase of 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1,404.35, an increase of 0.58% [47]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On February 9, 2026, the new energy commodity index was 503.20, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a decrease of 3.38% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 8.04% in the past month, and a decrease of 1.27% since the beginning of the year [48].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short and medium term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the performance of new energy metals is differentiated. Silicon material prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the support on the spot side. Lithium carbonate continues to benefit from the improvement in supply - demand, and lithium prices remain strong. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price may rise. The lithium carbonate supply - demand surplus is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - As of January 12, the spot price of industrial silicon was stable. As of the latest data, the inventory was basically flat, with a slight decrease in market inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory. In December 2025, domestic monthly production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January - December decreased year - on - year. In November, exports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January - November decreased slightly year - on - year. In November, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January - November increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - The supply in January is expected to decline slightly. The demand from polysilicon is weak, and some silicon material factories may have further maintenance. The cancellation of the export tax rebate may boost the polysilicon start - up rate in the first quarter. Organic silicon enterprises have cut production, but the start - up rate may adjust according to market demand. The aluminum alloy start - up rate has decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Currently, industrial silicon is in a stockpiling pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the demand will be substantially boosted [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is weak, and the price remains volatile. The demand may have short - term support under the drive of export rush, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of downstream enterprises [7] Polysilicon - As of the week of January 12, the N - type re - feed material transaction price increased week - on - week. On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In November 2025, the export volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January - November decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume also decreased year - on - year. The newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January - November 2025 increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - Recently, the anti - monopoly concern has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. With the arrival of the dry season, the production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased. The demand has been weakening since November, and the silicon wafer production schedule has declined significantly. However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate may lead to an export rush in the first quarter, which will boost the short - term demand. Overall, the supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price may be under pressure [8]. - The weak fundamentals remain unchanged. With the increasing anti - monopoly concern, the polysilicon price may show a volatile and pressured trend [9] Lithium Carbonate - On January 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 8.81% compared with the previous day, and the total position decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased. The number of warehouse receipts increased. On January 9, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced by Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine arrived at Hainan Yangpu Port [9]. - Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the macro sentiment is good. The market is optimistic about the demand in January, and the production schedule is expected to be higher than that in December. Recently, there have been frequent supply disturbances at home and abroad. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries from April may lead to an export rush, which is short - term positive and medium - to - long - term negative for lithium prices. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly weakening, but the far - month expectation is good, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile state [9]. - The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided 3. Commodity Index - On January 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, including the special index (such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), all had an increase. The new energy commodity index also increased, with a daily increase of 3.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.55%, a 1 - month increase of 21.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.36% [51][52]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are fluctuating and driving the market. Lithium carbonate is leading the decline in new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The production capacity of lithium ore is still rising, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon is fluctuating, causing the silicon price to decline. The sentiment for polysilicon has cooled, and it is oscillating at a high level. The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price has declined. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [5]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are 9450 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a 0.6% increase month - on - month. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 264,700 tons, a 1.0% increase month - on - month [5]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% increase month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% decrease year - on - year [5]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70,233 tons, an 8.4% decrease month - on - month and a 7.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 561,000 tons, a 2.3% increase year - on - year [5]. - The new photovoltaic installation in September was 9.66GW, a 53.76% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative new photovoltaic installation from January to September reached 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decrease as the dry season approaches, while the supply in the northwest is stable with potential for further production resumption. The overall supply of domestic industrial silicon remains relatively loose. The demand from the polysilicon industry in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November, the organic silicon DMC market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Although the reduction in southwest production during the dry season and the rapid reduction of short - term warehouse receipts provide some support, there is still supply pressure in November. The silicon price is expected to oscillate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9590 lots, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2150 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 18,667 tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in September was about 1292 tons, a 49.46% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative import from January to September was 14,677 tons, a 53.26% year - on - year decrease [6]. - The new domestic photovoltaic installation from January to September 2025 was 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [6]. - Some polysilicon production bases in the southwest are gradually reducing raw material input and are expected to fully stop production from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk appetite has cooled. The production of polysilicon has rebounded in August - September and is expected to remain high in October, but will contract in November with the arrival of the dry season. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Although the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, it is expected to improve during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 4.52% to 78,560 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 82,510 lots to 827,400 lots [8]. - On November 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton to 941 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots [9]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to October is estimated to be 12.054 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease in November. However, the supply expectations are fluctuating, causing significant price fluctuations. The production is expected to remain strong from November to December, with additional import expectations in November. The apparent demand is good, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the potential weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. The speculative demand may push up the price when it falls [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10]. 4. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Index (November 4, 2025)**: The commodity index is 2229.67, a 0.92% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2521.83, a 0.98% decrease; the industrial product index is 2213.57, a 1.07% decrease [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index (November 4, 2025)**: The index value is 407.95, with a daily decrease of 3.96%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.84%, a monthly increase of 2.51%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.08% [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, the supply side is expected to cut production, and the price remains high. For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China are 9350 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China are 9650 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations [6]. - The latest domestic inventory in Baichuan is 445,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 262,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [6]. - As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production is 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production is 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3% [6]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [6]. - The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The dry season in the southwest is coming, and silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to gradually reduce production. Currently, the supply in the northwest is still increasing, and the domestic industrial silicon supply is still in a loose situation. The increase in polysilicon production in October supports the demand for industrial silicon, but the demand will decline in November. The demand for silicone remains weak and stable, and the demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. In November, industrial silicon is still in a pattern of inventory accumulation, but the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts supports the market, but industrial silicon still faces inventory accumulation. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and the polysilicon price remains high [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,240 lots, a decrease of 180 lots from the previous value [7]. - In September, China's polysilicon export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the total export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [7]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Relevant policies aim to regulate low - price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity. The National Standards Committee plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product for polysilicon [7]. - Affected by recent meetings and electricity prices in the wet/dry seasons, some polysilicon bases in the southwest region have started to gradually reduce raw material input, with an expected full shutdown from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [8]. - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and it is expected to remain high in October. With the arrival of the dry season in November, the supply will shrink. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high, but it overdrafted the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Overall, the current supply - demand situation of polysilicon is under pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On October 27, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 2.99% to 81,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 50,618 lots to 862,528 lots [9]. - On October 27, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) is 906 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. On the same day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 960 lots to 27,739 lots [9]. - On October 27, Dazhong Mining announced that the "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" has passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. The annual mining scale is 2.6 million tons/year, and the spodumene mining scale ranks among the top in the industry. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to short - term demand and warehouse receipt changes. The weekly and monthly production of SMM continues to increase slightly, and imported ores will be supplemented in November, so the production is expected to remain high. The market has priced in the fact that Ningde Jianxiawo is unlikely to resume production this year, but relevant news should still be closely monitored. In terms of demand, the apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong, with an expected month - on - month increase. December is crucial. The social inventory continues to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons in November. The current change in the spot basis is not obvious, but there may be an expectation of strengthening in the future. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long run, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, with a possible rise in the price center. The high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, it continues to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In September, the export volume was 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply in the Northwest continues to increase, while the dry season in the Southwest is approaching, with some silicon plants reducing production. On the demand side, the consumption of industrial silicon has rebounded due to the resumption of production of some polysilicon enterprises in October, but is expected to decline slightly in November. The silicone DMC market is stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is limited. The continuous depletion of industrial silicon warehouse receipts supports the futures price [6]. - **Outlook**: With a relatively loose supply pattern, the silicon price is under pressure. Affected by coal prices, the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are slightly depleted, and polysilicon continues to fluctuate [7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September, the export volume was 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. The import volume in September was about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the import volume was 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26%. Some bases in the Southwest are expected to stop production in late October - early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the production in August - September has recovered to over 130,000 tons, expected to remain high in October and decline in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first half of the year was high, but the demand in the second half of the year is expected to weaken. There is still pressure on the current supply - demand of polysilicon, but there are policy expectations, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand is poor, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.66% to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 72,329 lots to 815,338 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts decreased by 260 lots to 28,759 lots [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October. The apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong. The social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The significant reduction in warehouse receipts should be watched out for. The price has strengthened under the situation of strong supply and demand [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3.2 Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the uncertainty of supply - side policies and the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The increasing production capacity of lithium ore will limit the upside potential of lithium prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, the price fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. For polysilicon, the price has high volatility because of the repeated policy expectations. For lithium carbonate, after the end of the production suspension expectation, the price returns to a pressured and volatile state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Industrial Silicon** - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was 7.36GW, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.3%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 64.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. In September, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly. The supply is expected to decline in the dry season in the southwest at the end of October, and the overall supply is still affected by the production rhythm and scale in the northwest. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory is relatively stable [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price declined due to the loosening of coal prices before the holiday. Recently, the resumption of production of large factories has slowed down, and the price of industrial silicon shows short - term oscillation. The resumption of production of large factories in the northwest needs to be continuously monitored [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price of polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 140 to 8,090. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. In August, the import volume was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59%. The cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 65% [7]. - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, the production of polysilicon in August has recovered to over 130,000 tons and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the anti - involution policy will limit the supply of polysilicon. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, but it also overdrawn the installation demand in the second half of the year. The subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon still has pressure, and the price fluctuation increases [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Viewpoint**: After the end of the production suspension expectation, the price of lithium carbonate returns to a pressured and volatile state. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.52% to 72,800 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 19,893 lots to 676,349 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 71,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 41,709 lots. In September 2025, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 52% [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand. After the successful submission of the reserve report on September 30, the price may be under pressure and oscillate. Although there is a supply - demand gap, it is less than expected. The production in September increased significantly, and the production in October is expected to reach 90,000 tons. The market generally expects no more production suspensions. The import of lithium carbonate may increase in the future. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The number of warehouse receipts is gradually recovering, which suppresses the price. Overall, the domestic supply - demand gap is not obvious, and the supply has great elasticity, so the price is under long - term pressure [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the expectation of future oversupply and supply recovery suppresses the price. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.2行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Polysilicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific content is provided in the given text.