FY26H1（对应自然年25 年4 月-9 月）营收同比-1.1 %，其中中国内地、中国港澳及其他市场同比-2.6 %、+6.5%，系低基数+定价类产品表现较好。FY26H1 经营利润、归母净利润+0.7 %、+0 .1 %，主要系 费用管控良好，FY26H1 黄金对冲损失31 亿港币（FY2 6 H1 金价累计涨幅22.8%）。FY26H1 公司定价 首饰、计价首饰营收同比+9.3%、 -3.8%，营收占比29.6%/+2.7pct、65.2%/-2.2pct。故宫系列、传福及传 喜等标志性产品销售额34 亿港元/+48%。FY2 6 Q 2 期末中国内地门店数5663 家/净关店611 家。展望 FY26H2，管理层指引预计营收中单位数增长、OP Margin 和毛利率提升（假设金价维持在4000-4100 美 元/盎司震荡），1）10 月以来动销加速增长，预计旺季终端提速；2）金价提升下全年毛利率和经营利 润率提升、黄金借贷亏损亦将扩大；3）下半年净关门店放缓、一口价产品占比继续提升。 事件 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：叶乐/黄杨璐/刘乐文 公司发布FY26H1 业绩（自然年为25 年4 月-9 月）： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which have increased over 55% this year, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, leading to discussions about potential bubbles in the gold market [1][2][3] - Various factors contributing to the surge in gold prices include a weakening dollar, soaring tech stocks, central banks increasing gold reserves for diversification, and inflation risks due to ongoing trade disputes [1] - Central banks have notably increased their gold purchases, with China adding 39.2 tons since November last year, driven by concerns over potential sanctions on overseas assets [1] Group 2 - Société Générale's commodity research team predicts that gold prices may rise further, with a possibility of reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by strong inflows into gold ETFs and a rising uncertainty index [2] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer suggests that holding gold may enhance the value of national currencies and cryptocurrencies amid challenges to the dollar's dominance [2] - Analysts warn of potential short-term corrections in gold prices, referencing historical data that indicates significant pullbacks during previous bull markets [3] Group 3 - Despite the strong performance of gold this year, historical trends show that gold prices can decline significantly after bull markets, raising questions about its effectiveness as a hedge against inflation and market risks [3] - The current gold market dynamics suggest that while central banks are unlikely to sell off gold in large quantities, the market may be approaching a critical resistance level, necessitating caution [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]