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对话复旦大学经济学院院长张军:工资增长跟上GDP增长的速度,才能真正把内需支撑起来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-26 16:33
Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand, integrating consumer welfare with investment in goods and people, and fostering a virtuous cycle between supply and demand to enhance the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition and Demand Expansion - The shift towards expanding domestic demand is seen as both an urgent and long-term strategy, reflecting a new stage in economic development where growth relies more on quality improvements and welfare enhancement rather than mere quantity expansion [3][4]. - The focus is on transitioning from low-value traditional industries to high-value sectors, including high-end services, which will create new income opportunities and drive consumption growth [3][6]. - The proportion of labor compensation in GDP has been increasing since 2010, but remains relatively low, necessitating policies that promote further increases to boost household demand [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - Domestic demand has historically been driven by production investments, but the current economic phase requires a shift towards consumer spending as the primary driver of internal demand [5][6]. - The government aims to create conditions for increasing the share of household consumption in the economy by enhancing income growth and creating more mid-to-high-end job opportunities [6][10]. - The importance of effective investment is highlighted, with a need to balance investments in infrastructure with those that directly benefit people's livelihoods [12][15]. Group 3: Investment in People - The concept of "investment in people" is crucial for ensuring that economic growth translates into improved living standards, requiring a shift in fiscal spending towards enhancing welfare and income levels [9][10]. - There is a call for reforms in the wage growth mechanism to ensure that nominal GDP growth aligns with wage increases, alongside improvements in social security systems [10][11]. - The need for a comprehensive approach to government investment is emphasized, focusing on both infrastructure and human capital to achieve a balanced and sustainable economic development [12][15].