智通财经APP获悉，市场正日益猜测日本央行将在本月加息，但参与者仍押注日元兑美元将继续走弱。 美国银行、野村控股和加拿大皇家银行资本市场的交易员表示，投资者的仓位布局反映了此类押注。一 项衡量交易员整体仓位的指标花旗集团的日元"痛苦指数"仍远低于零，这表明市场对该货币的悲观情绪 持续存在。 即使在日本央行行长植田和男暗示可能很快加息，且据称央行准备好在12月采取行动(除非经济或金融 市场遭遇重大冲击)之后，投资者依然坚守着看跌押注。其逻辑在于，即便日本央行可能采取行动，日 本的收益率预计仍将大幅低于美国，而这将支撑美元。 "仓位布局仍然倾向于美元兑日元在年底前逐步走高，除非日本央行带来真正的意外冲击，否则这一趋 势难以扭转，"美国银行亚太区G-10货币交易主管伊万·斯塔梅诺维奇(驻香港)表示。他指出，植田的鹰 派言论引发了关于该货币对的讨论，但市场情绪并未发生实质性转变。 日本财务大臣片山皐月(Satsuki Katayama)一直试图遏制日元的疲软走势，但成效有限，日元走势部分原 因是对日本央行加息延迟的猜测助长了这种疲软。即便在本月植田发出迄今为止最明确的即将加息信号 后日元有所上涨，其涨幅也仅为温和。 ...

Core Insights - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen has increased the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month [1] Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan board member, Kazuo Momma, indicated that the weakening yen is a significant factor influencing the central bank's monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has issued its strongest warning yet regarding the recent volatility of the yen, with the finance minister indicating that intervention is a potential response to curb the yen's continued decline [1][4]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed deep concern over the extreme and rapid fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, stating that appropriate actions will be taken against disorderly movements, including potential intervention [1][4]. - The government is expected to announce a significant economic stimulus package, funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), which is the largest since the reduction of pandemic-era measures [4][5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the 160 yen per dollar level, as the Japanese authorities have previously intervened in this range [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - The dollar briefly fell to 157.20 yen following the finance minister's comments but rebounded, remaining near its highest level since January [1]. - Analysts suggest that the yen is becoming a speculative tool, with market sensitivity to Japanese officials' comments diminishing, and macroeconomic factors supporting a weaker yen [4][6]. - There is speculation that Japan may intervene before the yen reaches the 160 mark, as the government believes it has sufficient foreign reserves to act if necessary [5][9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Japan has previously intervened in the market four times last year to support the yen, costing approximately 100 billion USD, and has spent around 173 billion USD since 2022 on interventions [9]. - The Japanese government emphasizes that intervention will only occur in response to sudden, disorderly, or speculative fluctuations in the market [9][11]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest since 2008, reflecting market optimism about the Japanese economy despite concerns over fiscal stability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism has advised Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, which has led to significant declines in Japanese tourism and consumer stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Tourism and Consumer Stocks - From January to September 2025, tourists from mainland China and Hong Kong are expected to account for approximately 30% of all foreign visitors to Japan, with about 7.49 million from mainland China, representing a 42.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - On November 17, multiple tourism and consumer stocks in Japan experienced substantial declines, with Shiseido's stock dropping over 9% and Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent company) falling over 4% [1]. - Department store stocks, including Mitsukoshi Isetan Holdings and Takashimaya, fell between 6% to 11%, while the operator of Tokyo Disneyland, Oriental Land Company, saw a decline of about 5% [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If the number of Chinese tourists to Japan drops to zero and remains at that level, Japan's tourism revenue could decrease by nearly 200 billion yen (approximately 9.19 billion RMB) per month [1]. - The chief currency strategist at Nomura Securities indicated that a sustained drop in Chinese tourists could lead to a weakening of the yen [1].