•中信证券研报指出，预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1-2 次。沃什不会按特朗普诉求大幅降息，仍以经济基本面为主要决策依据，沃什关注通胀风险但并非绝对 鹰派。 转自：新华财经 •Monex：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 •华泰证券：预计美联储在6月会议前将暂缓降息 •中信证券：预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息 【机构分析】 •Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当能消除 市场对3月降息的押注。"不过，Monex目前仍预计美联储将在6月恢复降息。 •华泰证券研报表示，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善的判断；维持美联 储在6月前暂停降息，待新主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。往前看，由于通胀整体较为温和，就业数据持 续性存疑，预计美联储在6月会议前仍将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策。 •对冲基金正出现明显转向，在"买入日本"交易升温的背景下，加大对日元走强的押注。交易员表示， 即便强劲的美国就业数据削弱了市场对今年美联储降息的预期，日元多头情绪仍在升温。周三，日元相 对美元连续第三个交易日上涨，在美国 ...

日本众议院选举将于本周日（2月8日）举行，这场提前选举不仅决定着日本首相高市早苗的政治命运， 更引发金融市场显著波动。 随着投票日临近，日本政治局势趋于白热化。高市早苗领导的执政党自民党正寻求巩固其统治地位，民 调结果却呈现复杂态势。多项民调显示，高市内阁支持率已从高位回落，不同机构的调查结果存在些许 差异。 共同社近期民调显示，高市内阁的支持率保持在63.6%，与上次调查基本持平，但不支持率为25.6%。 《日经新闻》与东京电视台的联合调查则显示，高市早苗的支持率已从去年12月的75%降至现在的 67%，这是她上任以来首次跌破70%。值得注意的是，56%的受访者认为政府缓解物价的经济刺激方案 不会产生积极效果。 《每日新闻》的调查结果更为严峻，高市内阁支持率已跌至57%，首次跌破60%大关；不支持率则上升 至29%，较上月增加7个百分点。 随着选举临近，对冲基金正在重启做空日元的押注。 据彭博社2月4日援引存管信托与清算公司数据，2月3日价值1亿美元或以上的美元兑日元看涨期权交易 量超过了同等规模的看跌期权。随着看涨期权需求回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对上行 风险的溢价已降至近两周最低水平。 支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 is expected to result in a decisive victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), but the anticipated "Kishida trade" (fiscal expansion leading to stock gains, yen depreciation, and a steepening yield curve) has limited potential due to external pressures and market reactions [1][8]. Election Outlook - The LDP is projected to secure over half of the seats in the election, with the possibility of achieving an "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats, allowing it to control legislative agendas [4][5]. - Recent polls indicate that Prime Minister Kishida's cabinet support has decreased slightly from 75% to 67%, while the LDP's support has risen to 42%, reflecting a solid voter base [5][7]. Policy Implications Post-Election - If the LDP wins, the government may initially pursue more aggressive fiscal policies, including discussions on temporarily exempting food consumption tax, but actual fiscal expansion will be constrained by external pressures and market responses [8][9]. - The U.S. Treasury has highlighted that potential expansionary fiscal policies could be a core driver of yen weakness, indicating a shift in focus from Japan's monetary policy to its fiscal path [8]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - Despite initial pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain stable interest rates, market reactions will likely force the government to accept interest rate hikes to stabilize the yen and the economy [9][10]. - The government is expected to transition to a position of "passively accepting rate hikes" to address the pressures of yen depreciation [10]. Market Expectations - The interest rate market is anticipated to shift from a short-term steepening to a mid-term flattening, with a focus on the sustainability of monetary policy following the election results [11]. - The yen is expected to face multiple constraints on further depreciation, with significant resistance at the 150 level against the dollar, and key intervention thresholds identified at 159 and 160 [11]. Alternative Scenarios - If the LDP wins by a narrow margin, the government may face significant constraints in policy implementation, potentially leading to compromises with opposition parties and continued fiscal expansion pressures [14]. - A loss for the LDP could result in a politically unstable environment under a reform coalition, leading to structural changes in the market, with a potential rapid unwinding of the "Kishida trade" and a strengthening of the yen [15].

对冲基金正重启做空日元的押注，随着日本本周末迎来关键选举，市场正布局日元再度走弱的局面。 周三美元兑日元汇率再度成为焦点，触及两周高点，升至156-157区间中段。在2月8日选举前，日本首 相高市早苗于上周末指出日元走软的好处。她为巩固领导地位而宣布提前选举，民调显示其政党有望获 得绝对多数席位 —— 这将赋予她更大空间推行财政刺激政策，这将加剧日本本已沉重的债务负担。 期权市场正在反映这种转变。存管信托与结算公司数据显示，周二价值超过1亿美元的美元兑日元看涨 期权（汇率上涨时获利）的交易量超过了同等看跌期权。周三亚洲时段这一趋势持续。随着看涨期权需 求回升，未来一个月内对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对于上行风险的期权溢价，已降至近两周来的最低水 平。 野村国际驻伦敦G-10现货交易主管Antony Foster表示，"随着市场稍显稳定，贵金属市场的极端泡沫已 趋平息，对冲基金正加速回归套利交易和高市交易。本周末日本选举临近，市场再度预期美元兑日元将 走高，尤其是如果高市早苗大获全胜的话。" 美国银行亚太区G-10货币交易主管Ivan Stamenovic指出，"实盘资金基本处于观望状态，通过期权进行 风险对冲而非 ...

对冲基金正在恢复做空日元，为日本本周末即将举行的关键性选举中日元可能再次走弱做好准备。在首 相高市早苗于2月8日大选前强调日元贬值的好处后，日元汇率再次成为关注焦点。她提前举行众议院大 选是为了巩固自己的领导地位，民调显示她的政党有望赢得独立多数席位——这一结果可能使她拥有更 大的自主权来推行财政刺激措施，并进一步加重日本本已沉重的债务负担。 期权市场正反映出这一转变。据存托信托与结算公司(DTCC)的数据显示，周二，价值1亿美元或以上的 美元兑日元看涨期权(若美元兑日元汇率上涨则收益)的交易量超过了同等价值的看跌期权。随着看涨期 权需求的回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对于上行风险的溢价已降至近两周以来的最低水 平。 野村国际驻伦敦G10现货交易主管Antony Foster表示："随着市场趋于稳定，贵金属市场的极端泡沫有所 消退，对冲基金正越来越多地重新开始进行套利交易和高市早苗交易。日本大选就在本周末，市场再次 预期美元/日元汇率将走高，尤其是在高市财长大获全胜的情况下。" 但与此同时，日本央行1月政策会议的会议纪要显示，在当局密切关注日元疲软对通胀的影响之际，决 策层对及时加息必要性的认识正在 ...

期权市场正在反映这一转变。据彭博社周三援引存管信托与清算公司数据，周二价值1亿美元或以上的美元兑日元看涨期权交易 量超过了同等规模的看跌期权。随着看涨期权需求回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对上行风险的溢价已降至近两周 最低水平。 这标志着市场情绪的显著转变。此前1月23日纽约联储的汇率询价，以及特朗普总统随后的表态，曾令日元大幅反弹。但在财政 部长贝森特重申强势美元政策、沃什获提名为下任美联储主席后，日元压力很快恢复。 交易员重拾"高市交易" 随着日本本周末迎来关键选举，对冲基金正在重启做空日元的押注，预期日元将再度走弱。 首相高市早苗在2月8日投票前强调弱势货币的益处，令美元兑日元重回市场焦点。她召集此次临时选举以巩固领导地位，民调显 示其所在政党有望单独获得多数席位——这一结果可能赋予她更大空间推行财政刺激，并增加日本本已沉重的债务负担。 高市最新言论进一步助长了美元兑日元的看涨情绪。巴克莱银行全球外汇期权主管Mukund Daga指出： 上周末关于日元走软有利于出口商的言论，似乎重新激发了市场对买入美元兑日元的兴趣。 相比之下，资产管理公司等实际资金投资者在近期波动中采取了更为谨慎的立场，等待 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant volatility due to rising uncertainty surrounding early elections and an upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, with traders on high alert for potential currency fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements and Market Reactions - The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar earlier this week, driven by expectations that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will call for elections to solidify his position and increase government spending [1]. - The yen briefly dropped to 159.45 and was around 158.65 on Friday morning, with the 160 level being a psychological threshold that the market is closely monitoring [4]. - The recent depreciation of the yen has raised concerns about potential market intervention by the Japanese government to support the currency, with officials focusing more on the magnitude and speed of fluctuations rather than specific levels [1][4]. Group 2: Central Bank and Policy Implications - Investors are keenly awaiting signals regarding interest rate hikes from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in the upcoming policy decision [1]. - The last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December did not provide lasting support for the yen, and officials are increasingly concerned about the yen's impact on inflation, which may influence future rate decisions [4]. - The lack of hawkish comments from the central bank during the last press conference led to a significant weakening of the yen, indicating the market's sensitivity to the Bank's communications [4]. Group 3: Hedge Fund Activities and Market Sentiment - Hedge funds are aggressively buying call options for USD/JPY, betting on a depreciation of the yen to around 165, which they believe would trigger substantial market intervention by Japanese authorities [4][5]. - There is a sustained demand for investment in the high-end structure of USD/JPY, with notable direct option buying and leveraged trading strategies being deployed [5]. - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) shows that the volume of call options traded was more than double that of put options, reflecting strong bullish sentiment towards USD/JPY [6].

Group 1 - Hedge funds are ignoring warnings from Japanese officials about currency intervention and continue to bet on the options market, believing that the yen must fall to around 165 against the dollar for substantial intervention to occur [1] - The yen reached an 18-month low against the dollar, prompting warnings from the finance minister and foreign exchange officials, while the economic security minister announced plans for an early election, reinforcing expectations of a continued rise in the dollar-yen exchange rate [1] - Nomura International's forex options trader noted sustained demand for high-structure investments in dollar-yen, with ongoing direct option buying and leveraged trading structures betting on intervention around the 160-165 exchange rate range [1] Group 2 - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) indicated that the volume of call options traded was more than double that of put options for transactions of $100 million or more, reflecting strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar-yen exchange rate [2] - The current exchange rate has rebounded to a key level that was significant during the last intervention by the Japanese finance ministry in July 2024, creating a resonance between "policy intervention memory" and "current market bullish sentiment" [2] Group 3 - The rapid rise of the dollar against the yen and the threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan have led some investors to increase their holdings of put options for hedging or speculation [4] - Barclays' global forex options head noted that some investors are using options to hedge against potential risks of currency intervention due to the rising dollar-yen exchange rate [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly speculating that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, yet participants continue to bet on a weaker yen against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Traders from Bank of America, Nomura Holdings, and Royal Bank of Canada indicate that investor positioning reflects a bearish sentiment towards the yen, as evidenced by Citigroup's yen "pain index" remaining well below zero [1]. - Despite the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's hints at a potential rate hike, investors maintain bearish bets, reasoning that even if action is taken, Japanese yields are expected to remain significantly lower than those in the U.S., supporting the dollar [1]. - The positioning still leans towards a gradual increase in the dollar-yen exchange rate by year-end, unless there is a significant surprise from the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 2: Currency Trends and Predictions - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's efforts to curb the yen's weakness have had limited success, with the yen's decline partly fueled by speculation regarding the delay in rate hikes [2]. - Following Ueda's comments, hedge funds have gradually reduced their bets on the dollar-yen rise, but most still hold this position [2]. - The options market shows a similar trend, with a 40% higher trading volume in call options compared to put options after Ueda's speech [2]. - UBS has revised its year-end yen exchange rate forecast from 152 yen to 158 yen per dollar, while Bank of America predicts the yen will fall below 160 yen by early 2026 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has underperformed against major currencies over the past three months, facing further downside risks due to increasing political uncertainties and potential government spending increases following election outcomes [1] Group 1: Currency Performance and Predictions - Strategists are bearish on the yen, predicting that election results will lead to increased government spending, while U.S. tariffs may slow down interest rate hikes [1] - The yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar since peaking in April, driven by concerns over Japanese elections [3] - The ratio of bullish to bearish bets on the dollar-yen pair is close to four to one, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Political Factors and Economic Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's poor polling results have raised concerns that Prime Minister Kishida may resort to populist spending measures to secure support for his weakened coalition [1] - Analysts suggest that if Kishida were to step down, he might be replaced by Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to more expansionary fiscal policies [3] - Barclays strategists predict that if expansionary fiscal policies are implemented, the dollar-yen exchange rate could rise above 150 [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Central Bank Decisions - Traders are closely watching the upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision for clues on future monetary policy, with a 73% probability of a rate hike by year-end priced into the overnight index swap market [4] - Some strategists believe that the recent U.S. tariffs, while lower than initially threatened, will still impact the Japanese economy, leading to a potential depreciation of the yen beyond 150 [5] - The market sentiment indicates that the recent strong performance of the dollar may be temporary, with some analysts remaining cautiously optimistic about the yen's future [3]