今年以来，日元兑美元汇率在连续四年下跌后勉强取得不到1%的小幅上涨。此前市场寄望于日本央行 加息与美联储降息共同推动日元走势反转，但实际效果令人失望。今年4月，美元兑日元一度跌破140关 口，但随后在美国总统特朗普的关税政策不确定性以及日本国内政治变化引发的财政风险上升背景下失 去动能。目前，美元兑日元交投在约155.70附近，距离今年低点158.87不远——而这一水平几乎与年初1 月时相当。 摩根大通日本外汇首席策略师Junya Tanase表示："日元的基本面相当疲弱，明年也不会有太大改 变。"他给出了华尔街最为悲观的预测之一，预计到2026年末美元兑日元汇率将达到164。他指出，周期 性力量明年可能进一步对日元不利，因市场在其他地区计入更高利率预期，日本央行收紧政策的影响将 被削弱。 隔夜指数掉期显示，市场尚未完全定价日本央行下一次加息，预计最早要到9月。同时，通胀仍高于日 本央行2%的目标水平，继续对日本国债形成压力。 套利交易的回归也成为新的逆风。借入低收益率的日元、转而投资于巴西雷亚尔或土耳其里拉等高收益 货币的策略，使日元更难反弹。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，截至12月9日当周 ...

Group 1 - Recent US economic data remains robust, leading to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from 90% to below 70% [1] - The strong performance of the US dollar is supported by high interest rates and signs of economic expansion, with the dollar index maintaining above 99.50 [1] - The European Central Bank decided to keep its main interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations, while the Eurozone inflation has decreased to 2.1%, indicating weak growth momentum [1] Group 2 - The strong US dollar is hindering the rebound of gold prices, which saw a temporary increase of over 2% but remains under pressure due to the Fed's tight policy and declining rate cut expectations [2] - Gold is experiencing limited upward movement due to reduced safe-haven demand and the strengthening dollar, resulting in a short-term inability to break through resistance levels [2] - Market focus is expected to shift back to central bank policy signals as key inflation and employment data are released in the coming weeks, highlighting the need for vigilance regarding monetary policy and global economic changes [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to rise, reaching 98.91, the highest level since June 23, driven by new trade agreements between the US and the EU, Japan, and a recovering market risk appetite [1] - The dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with the euro experiencing a significant decline, dropping 1.29% in a single day, marking the largest daily drop since mid-May [3] - Recent trade agreements involve substantial commitments, including a 15% tariff on most EU goods in exchange for a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU to the US, and a $550 billion bilateral trade agreement with Japan [3] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that the recent dollar strength may reflect a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, as the dollar had previously underperformed in the first half of the year [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current policy, but market participants are closely watching for any dovish language regarding inflation and potential rate cuts, which could lead to a reversal of recent dollar gains [4] - The divergence in monetary policy expectations among central banks is influencing the dollar's performance against various currencies, with the Japanese yen showing slight weakness against the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The international gold price is experiencing a strong upward trend, currently quoted at $3421.69 per ounce with a 1.07% increase [1] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head highlights that fluctuating trade policies are driving funds towards safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen [2] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may have room for policy tightening due to inflation consistently exceeding the 2% target for three years [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows a 0.1% month-on-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and an increase in initial jobless claims to 1.951 million, the highest since November 2021, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - The dollar index has reached its lowest level since March 2022, indicating potential continued depreciation pressure on the dollar [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are likely to rise, with key resistance levels at $3435 and $3500, while support levels are identified at $3399-3393 and $3376-3380 [3]