智通财经APP获悉，市场正日益猜测日本央行将在本月加息，但参与者仍押注日元兑美元将继续走弱。 美国银行、野村控股和加拿大皇家银行资本市场的交易员表示，投资者的仓位布局反映了此类押注。一 项衡量交易员整体仓位的指标花旗集团的日元"痛苦指数"仍远低于零，这表明市场对该货币的悲观情绪 持续存在。 即使在日本央行行长植田和男暗示可能很快加息，且据称央行准备好在12月采取行动(除非经济或金融 市场遭遇重大冲击)之后，投资者依然坚守着看跌押注。其逻辑在于，即便日本央行可能采取行动，日 本的收益率预计仍将大幅低于美国，而这将支撑美元。 "仓位布局仍然倾向于美元兑日元在年底前逐步走高，除非日本央行带来真正的意外冲击，否则这一趋 势难以扭转，"美国银行亚太区G-10货币交易主管伊万·斯塔梅诺维奇(驻香港)表示。他指出，植田的鹰 派言论引发了关于该货币对的讨论，但市场情绪并未发生实质性转变。 日本财务大臣片山皐月(Satsuki Katayama)一直试图遏制日元的疲软走势，但成效有限，日元走势部分原 因是对日本央行加息延迟的猜测助长了这种疲软。即便在本月植田发出迄今为止最明确的即将加息信号 后日元有所上涨，其涨幅也仅为温和。 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will break out of its recent narrow trading range against the US dollar, potentially leading to an appreciation of the yen [1] - Leveraged investors are establishing positions in the options market, anticipating that if the yen breaks above the current range of approximately 147 yen per dollar and surpasses the 145 level, these positions will become profitable [1] - Factors that may drive the yen stronger against the dollar include political turmoil in France and weak US non-farm payroll data, which could increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - On August 26, the trading volume of put options for USD/JPY reached four times that of call options following the dispute between Trump and Cook, as well as France's announcement of a no-confidence vote [2] - The most actively traded put option on that day had a strike price of 144.93, meaning that if the currency pair falls below this price, the value of the put option will increase [2] - Market sentiment has shifted towards bearish positions on USD/JPY, particularly in the 1 to 2-month maturity range, with strategies including digital options and direct put options [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is expected to create significant uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding the Japanese yen and fiscal policy, as the ruling coalition may lose its majority [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Forex market option traders have resumed shorting the yen, with call options for USD/JPY trading volume more than double that of put options as of July 11 [2]. - As of July 8, asset management firms held a net long position of 89,331 contracts for USD/JPY, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar [2]. - There is increased interest in one-month call options for USD/JPY, coinciding with the election period, reflecting market expectations of heightened uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns and Bond Yields - Concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook are leading to expectations that the election results may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus, which is already being priced into Japanese government bonds [4]. - Long-term Japanese government bond yields are rising, with the 30-year yield increasing by 12.5 basis points to 3.165%, nearing a historical high of 3.185% [4][5]. - The 20-year bond yield also rose by 12.5 basis points to 2.625%, reaching its highest level since 2000, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 17 basis points to 3.495% [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing the Yen - The sentiment towards the yen has been deteriorating due to the lack of progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations and worsening fiscal prospects in Japan [5]. - Recent US non-farm payroll data has sparked interest among traders to go long on USD/JPY, as it has led to a reassessment of the timing for a slowdown in the US economy and a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations [5].