•中信证券研报指出，预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1-2 次。沃什不会按特朗普诉求大幅降息，仍以经济基本面为主要决策依据，沃什关注通胀风险但并非绝对 鹰派。 转自：新华财经 •Monex：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 •华泰证券：预计美联储在6月会议前将暂缓降息 •中信证券：预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息 【机构分析】 •Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当能消除 市场对3月降息的押注。"不过，Monex目前仍预计美联储将在6月恢复降息。 •华泰证券研报表示，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善的判断；维持美联 储在6月前暂停降息，待新主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。往前看，由于通胀整体较为温和，就业数据持 续性存疑，预计美联储在6月会议前仍将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策。 •对冲基金正出现明显转向，在"买入日本"交易升温的背景下，加大对日元走强的押注。交易员表示， 即便强劲的美国就业数据削弱了市场对今年美联储降息的预期，日元多头情绪仍在升温。周三，日元相 对美元连续第三个交易日上涨，在美国 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据交易员透露，尽管强劲的美国就业数据削弱了市场对美联储年内降息的预期，但 随着"做多日本"交易持续升温，对冲基金已调转方向，大举押注日元走强。 周三，日元兑美元连续第三日上涨，对美国就业报告带来的美元上行压力全然无视。就在上周，对冲基 金还在日本关键大选前重新增持日元空头头寸，市场普遍预计高市早苗首相若胜选并获得新的授权，将 推行扩张性财政政策，日元或再度走弱。 日本自民党在大选中大获全胜后，日元一度承压，但随后日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，日本政府将依据 日美联合声明对外汇波动作出应对，日元随即快速反弹。 花旗集团驻新加坡亚太区外汇交易主管Nathan Swami指出，日元反弹之际，恰逢市场在美国就业数据公 布前平掉短期美元兑日元多头头寸，对冲基金与资产管理机构均在抛售该货币对。 其他交易员称，外汇期权市场仓位也转向看空美元兑日元，周三在美国非农数据公布前，对冲基金便已 买入短期美元兑日元看跌期权价差组合。 Swami在美国非农数据发布前表示："美元看跌期权的买盘依然旺盛，风险逆转指标(用于衡量同类看涨 与看跌期权的价格差异)也强烈指向美元走弱。" 美国存托信托与清算公司数据显示，周三规模在 ...

日本众议院选举将于本周日（2月8日）举行，这场提前选举不仅决定着日本首相高市早苗的政治命运， 更引发金融市场显著波动。 随着投票日临近，日本政治局势趋于白热化。高市早苗领导的执政党自民党正寻求巩固其统治地位，民 调结果却呈现复杂态势。多项民调显示，高市内阁支持率已从高位回落，不同机构的调查结果存在些许 差异。 共同社近期民调显示，高市内阁的支持率保持在63.6%，与上次调查基本持平，但不支持率为25.6%。 《日经新闻》与东京电视台的联合调查则显示，高市早苗的支持率已从去年12月的75%降至现在的 67%，这是她上任以来首次跌破70%。值得注意的是，56%的受访者认为政府缓解物价的经济刺激方案 不会产生积极效果。 《每日新闻》的调查结果更为严峻，高市内阁支持率已跌至57%，首次跌破60%大关；不支持率则上升 至29%，较上月增加7个百分点。 随着选举临近，对冲基金正在重启做空日元的押注。 据彭博社2月4日援引存管信托与清算公司数据，2月3日价值1亿美元或以上的美元兑日元看涨期权交易 量超过了同等规模的看跌期权。随着看涨期权需求回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对上行 风险的溢价已降至近两周最低水平。 支 ...

对冲基金正在恢复做空日元，为日本本周末即将举行的关键性选举中日元可能再次走弱做好准备。在首 相高市早苗于2月8日大选前强调日元贬值的好处后，日元汇率再次成为关注焦点。她提前举行众议院大 选是为了巩固自己的领导地位，民调显示她的政党有望赢得独立多数席位——这一结果可能使她拥有更 大的自主权来推行财政刺激措施，并进一步加重日本本已沉重的债务负担。 期权市场正反映出这一转变。据存托信托与结算公司(DTCC)的数据显示，周二，价值1亿美元或以上的 美元兑日元看涨期权(若美元兑日元汇率上涨则收益)的交易量超过了同等价值的看跌期权。随着看涨期 权需求的回升，未来一个月对冲美元兑日元下行风险相对于上行风险的溢价已降至近两周以来的最低水 平。 野村国际驻伦敦G10现货交易主管Antony Foster表示："随着市场趋于稳定，贵金属市场的极端泡沫有所 消退，对冲基金正越来越多地重新开始进行套利交易和高市早苗交易。日本大选就在本周末，市场再次 预期美元/日元汇率将走高，尤其是在高市财长大获全胜的情况下。" 但与此同时，日本央行1月政策会议的会议纪要显示，在当局密切关注日元疲软对通胀的影响之际，决 策层对及时加息必要性的认识正在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly speculating that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, yet participants continue to bet on a weaker yen against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Traders from Bank of America, Nomura Holdings, and Royal Bank of Canada indicate that investor positioning reflects a bearish sentiment towards the yen, as evidenced by Citigroup's yen "pain index" remaining well below zero [1]. - Despite the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's hints at a potential rate hike, investors maintain bearish bets, reasoning that even if action is taken, Japanese yields are expected to remain significantly lower than those in the U.S., supporting the dollar [1]. - The positioning still leans towards a gradual increase in the dollar-yen exchange rate by year-end, unless there is a significant surprise from the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 2: Currency Trends and Predictions - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's efforts to curb the yen's weakness have had limited success, with the yen's decline partly fueled by speculation regarding the delay in rate hikes [2]. - Following Ueda's comments, hedge funds have gradually reduced their bets on the dollar-yen rise, but most still hold this position [2]. - The options market shows a similar trend, with a 40% higher trading volume in call options compared to put options after Ueda's speech [2]. - UBS has revised its year-end yen exchange rate forecast from 152 yen to 158 yen per dollar, while Bank of America predicts the yen will fall below 160 yen by early 2026 [3].

Group 1 - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will break out of its recent narrow trading range against the US dollar, potentially leading to an appreciation of the yen [1] - Leveraged investors are establishing positions in the options market, anticipating that if the yen breaks above the current range of approximately 147 yen per dollar and surpasses the 145 level, these positions will become profitable [1] - Factors that may drive the yen stronger against the dollar include political turmoil in France and weak US non-farm payroll data, which could increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - On August 26, the trading volume of put options for USD/JPY reached four times that of call options following the dispute between Trump and Cook, as well as France's announcement of a no-confidence vote [2] - The most actively traded put option on that day had a strike price of 144.93, meaning that if the currency pair falls below this price, the value of the put option will increase [2] - Market sentiment has shifted towards bearish positions on USD/JPY, particularly in the 1 to 2-month maturity range, with strategies including digital options and direct put options [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is expected to create significant uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding the Japanese yen and fiscal policy, as the ruling coalition may lose its majority [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Forex market option traders have resumed shorting the yen, with call options for USD/JPY trading volume more than double that of put options as of July 11 [2]. - As of July 8, asset management firms held a net long position of 89,331 contracts for USD/JPY, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar [2]. - There is increased interest in one-month call options for USD/JPY, coinciding with the election period, reflecting market expectations of heightened uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns and Bond Yields - Concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook are leading to expectations that the election results may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus, which is already being priced into Japanese government bonds [4]. - Long-term Japanese government bond yields are rising, with the 30-year yield increasing by 12.5 basis points to 3.165%, nearing a historical high of 3.185% [4][5]. - The 20-year bond yield also rose by 12.5 basis points to 2.625%, reaching its highest level since 2000, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 17 basis points to 3.495% [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing the Yen - The sentiment towards the yen has been deteriorating due to the lack of progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations and worsening fiscal prospects in Japan [5]. - Recent US non-farm payroll data has sparked interest among traders to go long on USD/JPY, as it has led to a reassessment of the timing for a slowdown in the US economy and a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations [5].