智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度业绩。摩根士丹利发布研报，预计阿 斯麦公司第二季度的订单量会十分可观，这得益于潜在的中国市场需求以及台积电(TSM.US)的重摆脱 困境。然而，从中期到长期来看，大摩预计增长会较为有限，原因是EUV技术的层数增加缓慢导致预 期和估值受到影响，而该行认为这种影响是完全负面的，因此维持"持股观望"评级，目标价660欧元， 这反映了谨慎的增长预期。 2025 年第二季度的出货量会保持良好态势吗? 大摩预计，阿斯麦在 2025 年第二季度的订单量将超过 40 亿欧元，这主要得益于中国市场和台积电。该 行预计中国市场在 2025 财年销售额结构中的占比将会增加，可能从 20%左右提升至 25%左右。大摩的 预测与市场对 2025 财年和 2026 财年收入的共识相符，保持稳定。 市场预计阿斯麦公司会公布一份稳健的业绩报告，并且订单金额将超过 40 亿欧元。大摩认为，存在上 涨的可能性，原因在于(i)中国需求出现转折点，以及(ii)台积电可能重新出现EUV订单，而上一季度此 类订单明显减少。大摩预计该公司还将上调 2025 财年在中国的销售比例指引(可 ...

2025 年 5 月 13 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 从资产价格而言，短期全球将开启一段 risk on 的交易，风险资产价格上涨、避险资 产交易热情暂歇；但美国逆全球化趋势已成，将给资产定价模式和资金流动方向带来 永久性改变，这条慢叙事逻辑依然没有被打破。 【宏观】今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？——《见微知著》第二十一篇 据测算，今年一季度消费品以旧换新（家电、汽车、通讯设备）的财政乘数提高至 2.4，高于去年 9-12 月的 2.1，主要得益于国补范围拓宽至消费电子领域。预计二季 度以旧换新财政乘数仍能保持在较高水平，一是，4 月以来以旧换新申请速度进一步 加快；二是，近期第二批 810 亿元以旧换新资金下达；三是，地方政府因地制宜拓宽 国补范畴，叠加消费券配套发放，更好发挥政策效果。 【策略】【光大证券】A 股市场策略数据库-20250510 大类资产方面，本周大类资产涨多跌少，纳斯达克指数涨幅居前，WTI 原油现货价跌 幅居前。 A 股宽基指数方面，本周宽基指数涨多跌少，中小 100 涨幅居前，科创 50 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][5][13] Core Views - The demand for advanced packaging-related products is increasing, leading to stable growth in the company's performance. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 432 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.48 million yuan, up 2.51% year-on-year [4][5] - The company's revenue growth is supported by the overall recovery in industry demand, particularly for advanced packaging products, and the company's technological advantages in core products such as electroplating solutions and photoresists [5][8] - The company is expanding its market share in the advanced packaging sector and has made significant investments in R&D, with R&D expenses increasing by 40.42% year-on-year, which has impacted profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 432 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.42% and a net margin of 7.75%. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 126 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.13% [4][5][6] - The company's revenue structure shows that sales of electroplating solutions and related reagents reached 196 million yuan in 2024, a 9.67% increase year-on-year, while photoresists saw a 37.68% increase in sales to 95 million yuan [8] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the domestic traditional packaging sector and is expanding into other application areas, including passive components, PCBs, advanced packaging, and wafer manufacturing [8] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 573 million yuan in 2025, 735 million yuan in 2026, and 926 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 47 million yuan, 72 million yuan, and 106 million yuan respectively [6][11] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.53 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 1.20 yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product line in the advanced packaging sector and has successfully launched several products for mass production, which are widely used in various processes [8] - The company aims to enhance its market share in the advanced packaging and wet electronic chemicals market, driven by the expansion wave among domestic manufacturers [8][11]