公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 摩尔定律指出，集成电路上的晶体管数量往往每两年翻一番，这一规律的实现很大程度上得益于光刻 技术的进步：光刻技术是一种在硅片上制作微观图案的技术。晶体管尺寸的不断缩小——从20世纪70 年代初的约10000纳米缩小到如今的约20纳米-60纳米——得益于能够制作越来越小图案的光刻方法 的开发。光刻技术的最新进展是采用极紫外 (EUV) 光刻技术，该技术使用波长为 13.5 纳米的光在芯 片上创建图案。 众所周知，极紫外光刻机仅由荷兰ASML公司一家生产，因此，谁能使用这些机器已成为一个重要的 地缘政治问题。然而，尽管机器由ASML制造，但使其得以实现的绝大部分研究工作却是在美国完成 的。美国研发领域一些最负盛名的机构——例如DARPA、贝尔实验室、IBM研究院、英特尔和美国 国家实验室——投入了数十年时间和数亿美元的资金，才使得极紫外光刻技术成为可能。 那么，为什么在美国付出如此多的努力之后，最终实现 EUV 商业化的却是荷兰的一家公司呢？ 半导体光刻技术的工作原理 简而言之，半导体光刻技术的工作原理是利用掩模将光选择性地投射到硅片上。当光穿过掩模（或在 极紫外光刻 ...

Core Insights - ARM CEO Rene Haas commented on the competitive landscape between Intel and TSMC, stating that Intel has faced "time penalties" due to missed opportunities and that catching up with TSMC is now "very difficult" [1][3]. Group 1: Intel's Key Mistakes - Intel's complete absence in the mobile chip sector has been a significant error, particularly missing the opportunity to supply chips for the iPhone due to the underperformance of its low-power Atom series SoC [3]. - Intel's late investment in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) technology has put it behind TSMC, which has been utilizing EUV for advanced chip manufacturing for about a decade [4]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Characteristics - The semiconductor industry requires long-term investment and accumulation, with high barriers to entry. Once a company falls behind in chip manufacturing, it becomes extremely challenging to catch up due to the accelerating industry cycle [6]. - TSMC has established a leading position in advanced manufacturing processes, currently providing top-tier wafer fabrication services to major companies like Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD [6]. Group 3: Manufacturing Culture Differences - There is a cultural disparity in manufacturing perceptions between the West and Taiwan, where working at TSMC is seen as prestigious, while in the West, manufacturing is often viewed as a "blue-collar job" [6]. - Establishing advanced manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. requires systemic reforms across multiple industries, along with long-term policy and administrative support [6].

Core Viewpoint - ASML is expected to report strong second-quarter results on July 16, with significant order volume driven by potential demand from China and TSMC's recovery, but Morgan Stanley anticipates limited growth in the medium to long term due to slow increases in EUV technology layers, maintaining a "hold" rating with a target price of €660 [1] Group 1: Orders and Revenue Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts ASML's order volume will exceed €4 billion in Q2 2025, primarily due to the Chinese market and TSMC [1] - The firm expects the sales proportion from the Chinese market to increase from approximately 20% to 25% in FY 2025 [1] - The consensus for ASML's revenue in FY 2025 and FY 2026 aligns with Morgan Stanley's forecast, maintaining stability [1][2] Group 2: EUV Technology and Performance - ASML's revenue grew from approximately €9 billion to about €28 billion from 2017 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of around 20%, significantly outpacing wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth of about 11% [3] - Following the introduction of EUV technology in 2019, revenue acceleration was notable, but Morgan Stanley now expects performance improvements to rely more on system performance rather than layer count increases, indicating a potential limit to layer growth [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Growth - The current cycle may differ significantly from the previous one due to a lack of clear growth drivers, with ASML relying on capacity expansion and continued subsidized spending in China [4] - Strong infrastructure spending has a limited impact on leading-edge equipment expenditures, and a lack of support from end markets like PCs and smartphones suggests that TSMC's capital expenditure growth seen in FY 2022 is unlikely to recur until FY 2027 [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts ASML's revenue growth rate to remain between 11% and 13% from 2024 to 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - ASML is expanding its workforce in Japan to enhance its EUV technology capabilities, reflecting confidence in the Japanese semiconductor market and supporting local industry advancements [1][2]. Group 1: ASML's Expansion Plans - ASML plans to increase its advanced EUV machine workforce in Japan by five times, indicating a strategic move to meet the growing global demand for high-performance chips [1]. - By 2027, ASML aims to expand its maintenance staff in Japan to 100 personnel to support the increasing number of EUV devices [2]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Semiconductor Industry - The expansion of ASML's operations is expected to aid in the technological upgrade and talent development of Japan's semiconductor industry [1]. - Japanese semiconductor company Rapidus is set to begin trial production of 2nm technology this month, with a goal of full-scale production by 2027, aligning with ASML's efforts [1]. Group 3: Operational Considerations - Chip manufacturing involves numerous processes, and any downtime during the photolithography stage can lead to significant opportunity losses, estimated by ASML to be thousands of dollars per minute [2]. - ASML's maintenance teams will need to be stationed near client factories to ensure rapid response to any equipment issues [2].

Core Viewpoint - EUV technology is overcoming challenges such as high costs and complex optical systems, showing significant advantages in processes of 10nm and below, with recent advancements from major companies indicating a new phase of commercial application and development [1]. Group 1: High NA EUV Developments - Intel is the first chip manufacturer to purchase High NA EUV lithography machines, with each machine valued at €350 million, currently used for R&D purposes [3]. - Intel's early results show that High NA machines can complete tasks with fewer exposures and processing steps compared to earlier machines, indicating a strong commitment to leading in the High NA EUV era [3][4]. - imec demonstrated a 90% yield in electrical testing of 20nm spaced metal lines using High NA EUV lithography, confirming the technology's capability at such small dimensions [6][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape in DRAM - Micron has introduced its first EUV-based 1γ (1-gamma) 16Gb DDR5 devices, achieving a 20% reduction in power consumption and a 30% increase in bit density compared to previous generations [11][15]. - Micron's transition to EUV is expected to improve economic efficiency for new nodes, combining EUV with multiple patterning DUV technology [15][16]. - The competition among major memory manufacturers is intensifying as Micron adopts EUV, with Samsung and SK Hynix also investing in High NA EUV machines to enhance their competitive edge [17]. Group 3: EUV Mask Technology - Samsung has decided to procure EUV pellicles from Mitsui Chemicals to improve production efficiency, following challenges in yield for its 3nm process [22][23]. - The development of EUV pellicles is crucial for reducing pattern defects in chip manufacturing, with ongoing efforts to enhance the performance and lifespan of these films [21][25]. Group 4: Future of EUV Technology - The ongoing innovation in EUV technology is expected to lead to more efficient, precise, and cost-effective chip manufacturing processes, supporting the semiconductor industry's growth and competitiveness [29].