与此同时，即将到来的2026年，有色金属是遵循历史规律出现回调，还是逆势打破"连庄"魔咒，将成为市场最大的看点之一。 有色牛市图景 2025年的有色金属行情，是一场从贵金属到工业金属，从上游资源到下游新材料的全面爆发。这种全面性，在近十五年的板块行情中颇为罕见。 贵金属是当之无愧的急先锋。全球央行持续购金、美元信用体系弱化以及地缘政治引发的避险需求，构成了推动金价上行的坚实三角。反映在股价上，招金 黄金年内上涨227.71%，领涨黄金股，紫金矿业、西部黄金、赤峰黄金等公司的股价亦表现亮眼。 白银价格狂飙，其涨幅甚至超过了黄金，令市场瞩目，逼空行情推动白银价格创历史新高，COMEX白银的年涨幅已超过100%。白银价格飙升背后是资金与 库存的深度博弈，一方面，全球矿产银产量长期停滞，另一方面，白银需求端，呈现传统消费稳健、新兴产业（光伏、新能源汽车）需求爆发的格局。 2025年，沉寂多年的有色金属板块迎来了久违的史诗级行情。截至12月16日，A股有色金属（申万一级行业，下同）年度涨幅高达73.67%，超越通信板块 （72.97%），位居全市场第一。而在上周五，全A涨幅第一是通信行业，可见今年行业涨幅榜竞争激烈程度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on Huayou Cobalt, which has emerged from a downturn due to rising prices of cobalt and nickel, driven by market demand and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Huayou Cobalt's market capitalization has reached 125.1 billion yuan after a significant stock price increase, marking a recovery from a previous decline where its market value had shrunk by over 80% [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 372 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit of 27.11 billion yuan, up 62.26% [13]. - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt has surged by 54.32% over the past three months, reflecting strong market performance [13]. Group 2: Historical Context - Huayou Cobalt was founded in 2002, initially focusing on cobalt resources, and has since expanded its operations internationally, becoming a major player in the cobalt refining industry [8]. - The company has experienced three significant cyclical fluctuations, with the first occurring from 2015 to 2017, where cobalt prices surged due to demand from the smartphone and electronics sectors, followed by a sharp decline [10]. - The second cycle from 2019 to 2022 saw a drastic drop in profits due to adjustments in the new energy battery industry, prompting Huayou Cobalt to diversify its operations [11]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Cobalt prices have shown a clear cyclical pattern, with a notable recovery beginning in early 2023 after a significant drop earlier in the year, influenced by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [13][15]. - Nickel, which has become a core revenue source for Huayou Cobalt, has also seen a substantial increase in revenue, with a reported 128.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 34.51% of total revenue [15]. - The development of solid-state battery technology is expected to further boost nickel demand, as it is a critical component in these advanced batteries, with commercial production anticipated between 2027 and 2030 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, particularly with the rise of cobalt and lithium prices, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt [1][2]. Market Performance - Huayou Cobalt's stock has shown significant resilience, with a price increase of 18.9% since September, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.77% [1]. - Over the past three months, Huayou Cobalt's stock price surged by 54.32%, leading to a market capitalization of 105.4 billion yuan [1][8]. Company Background - Huayou Cobalt was established in 2002, initially focusing on cobalt resources, and has since expanded its operations internationally, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][4]. - The company has undergone significant transformations, evolving from a resource seller to an integrated player in the resource-refining-sales chain [4]. Cyclical Nature of the Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry, including cobalt and nickel, is characterized by strong cyclical trends, with Huayou Cobalt experiencing three notable cycles of boom and bust [5][6]. - The first cycle (2015-2017) saw cobalt prices soar due to demand from the smartphone and electronics sectors, followed by a sharp decline [5]. - The second cycle (2019-2022) was marked by a significant drop in cobalt prices due to adjustments in the new energy battery industry, leading to a drastic reduction in Huayou's profits [5]. - The third cycle began in 2023, with an oversupply in the market impacting Huayou's performance [6]. Recent Performance and Recovery - In the first half of 2023, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [7][8]. - This performance marks the company's best half-year results in recent years, driven by the recovery in cobalt and nickel prices [8]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - Cobalt prices have rebounded from a low of $9.95 per pound earlier in the year, influenced by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - Nickel, which constitutes a significant portion of Huayou's revenue, has also shown signs of recovery due to supply restrictions and rising production costs [10]. - The development of solid-state battery technology is expected to further boost nickel demand, positioning Huayou Cobalt favorably for future growth [10].