12月22日，《北京日报》第10版刊登商务部原副部长、中国国际经济交流中心资深专家咨询委员会委员魏建国的署名文章《下一步经济增长红利在服务业 升级和国际化》。 魏建国分析，未来5年，作为拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"，消费将扮演经济增长"压舱石"和"主引擎"的角色，投资将扮演"孵化器"和"助推器"的角色，出口 将扮演"稳定器"的角色。中国经济的高质量发展主要以国内大循环为主体，依靠消费引进高质量的投资来助推，"三驾马车"不是相互替代，而是系统发 力。 以下为全文—— 最近，中央经济工作会议确定，明年经济工作要抓好8个方面的重点任务，其中第一条是"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，内容包括"深入实施提振消 费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"；"扩大优质商品和服务供给"；"清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力"等。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议，将"居民消费率明显提高"作为主要目标之一，提出"强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托"等，并 围绕扩内需、促消费提出了诸多新要求。 结合学习这两次重要会议的精神，我谈谈个人关于经济工作的一些看法。 要从"两端"解决居民消费率偏低的问题 当前，我国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption through various new proposals [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the current economic scale and potential growth rate [2][3]. - The plan highlights the need for a flexible approach to economic growth, with a lower limit to ensure employment and a higher limit to prevent inflation and promote structural adjustments [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, solutions should be sought from both the income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending [3][4]. - Three key actions are necessary to enhance resident consumption: increasing the share of new consumption types, enriching consumption scenarios, and ensuring the implementation of national policies to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Real Estate and Automotive Markets - The plan proposes removing unreasonable restrictions on automotive and housing consumption, as both sectors have significant economic impacts and can stimulate related industries [5][6]. - The real estate market is expected to see slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7]. Group 4: Role of Consumption, Investment, and Exports - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that its contribution to GDP growth will exceed 60% [12][13]. - Investment will shift focus from total volume to structural optimization, supporting high-quality development in sectors like high-end manufacturing and technology [13]. - Exports will serve as a stabilizer, maintaining their importance due to China's comprehensive industrial system, despite potential fluctuations [12][14]. Group 5: Service Industry and Market Opening - The emphasis on expanding the service industry as a key area for market opening indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing service sector competitiveness and internationalization [20][21]. - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and management practices to meet consumer demands [21].

Core Points - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - The plan proposes a combination of investments in goods and people, increasing public service spending, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like housing and automobiles [1][4] Economic Growth Targets - The reasonable economic growth rate for China during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the large economic base and potential growth rate [4][5] - The plan aims to align with the long-term goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [4] Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, strategies should focus on expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending to enhance consumer confidence [5][6] - New consumption patterns should prioritize human-centered consumption, with a focus on sectors like the silver economy, infant products, and women's economy [6] Role of Real Estate - The real estate market is expected to experience slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7][8] - The removal of unreasonable restrictions on housing and automobiles is aimed at releasing suppressed consumer demand, which is vital for economic growth [7] Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that it will contribute over 60% to GDP growth [12] - Investment will serve as an "incubator" and "accelerator," focusing on optimizing economic structure and transitioning to high-quality development [13] - Exports will act as a "stabilizer," maintaining their importance despite potential fluctuations, supported by China's comprehensive industrial system [12][13] Service Industry Development - The shift in focus towards expanding the service sector reflects a strategic change, with the service industry expected to drive future economic growth and competitiveness [19][20] - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and international engagement in service management [20]