——访中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院教授宋立 ■ 中国经济时报记者 周子勋 今年国庆中秋假期消费市场活力十足。其中，服务消费热度高涨是最大亮点。 10月9日，国家税务总局最新增值税发票数据显示，国庆中秋假期全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%。其中，商品消费和服务消费同比分别增 长3.9%和7.6%，旅游、文化艺术体育服务需求强劲。国家电影局10月9日发布的数据显示，10月1日至8日，我国2025年国庆档电影票房为18.35亿元，观影 人次为5007万。中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院教授宋立指出，扩大消费重在大力发展服务消费特别是新型服务消费，努力增加供给，满足不断 增长的服务消费需求，使我国服务消费在未来发展阶段实现较快发展，带动消费较快增长，更好满足人民群众日益增长的物质文化需求。 从消费需求占GDP的比重（消费率）来看，世界范围内，消费率随着经济发展阶段性变化和人均收入水平提高呈现"先降后升"趋势。如果按照人均GDP水 平从低到高排序，居民消费率呈现比较明显的扁平状"W"型分布，撒哈拉以南非洲地区人均GDP最低，消费率最高；南亚地区人均GDP有所提高，消费率 明显降低；中东和北非地区 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in the first half of 2025 showed a "mixed" pattern. Exports remained resilient, the growth rate of social retail sales increased significantly, but there were "hidden concerns" behind the growth. The decline in real estate investment continued to widen, and it will take time for prices to stabilize [4]. - The intensity of "rush exports" is expected to weaken in the second half of the year. The sales and production of the household appliance industry may cool down, which will affect social retail sales and industrial added value. The decline in real estate investment will continue to expand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the incremental support for urban renewal funds and the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model. It will take time for prices to stabilize [4][5]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. What are the new changes in exports? - **Tariff situation**: The average tariff rate of the United States on China is around 40%, an increase of 29 percentage points compared to before Trump took office. The exemption of some commodities in April 2025 accounted for 24% of China's exports to the United States in 2024 [10]. - **Export data**: In May 2025, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. In RMB, exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.1%. Exports to the US and India decreased significantly, while exports to the UK and the EU increased significantly. The export of labor - intensive goods mostly had negative growth, but the export of clothing and toys rebounded [13]. - **Export delivery value**: The year - on - year decline in export delivery value was obvious. The new export order index moved down from the previous central level, and the kinetic energy of new export orders weakened [18][22]. 2. What policy expectations are there? Consumption policy - **Policy introduction**: In the past year, many consumption - promoting policies have been introduced, indicating that there is potential in the consumption market. However, China's consumption rate is low, and there are also structural problems in consumption [26]. - **Reasons for low consumption rate**: The main factors determining the household consumption rate are consumption ability and marginal consumption propensity. China's income structure shows obvious differentiation, and the imperfect social security system makes residents have a strong preventive savings motivation [33][38]. - **Policy measures**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses the problems of consumption ability and consumption tendency by increasing income and reducing burdens. The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" further expands the scope of financial support for consumption, and the focus of consumption policies may shift to the service consumption field in the future [44][49][52]. Real - estate policy - **City renewal action**: The Politburo meeting in April proposed to intensify the implementation of the urban renewal action, which helps the real - estate investment to stabilize. The key point of follow - up attention is whether there will be incremental support for urban renewal funds [53]. - **Real - estate sales model**: The transition to the spot - sale model means the end of the high - turnover model of real - estate enterprises. The supporting policies, especially the financing policy, are not clear, which affects the funds of real - estate enterprises. It is necessary to pay attention to the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model [5][63]. Infrastructure policy - **Investment situation**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. If the scale of land reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the special bond funds invested in traditional infrastructure fields may be less than in 2024 [64]. - **Structural differentiation**: In the context of debt resolution, infrastructure construction with the central government as the construction and expenditure subject may be stronger, while that with local governments as the subject may be weaker. The investment structure differentiation may continue [66]. - **Development space**: Railway investment still has room for development, and canal construction is in full swing. It is estimated that the overall growth rate of infrastructure in 2025 will be around 7.0% [66][70][73]. 3. Can prices stabilize and rebound? - **Price influencing factors**: The impact of currency on prices depends on the supply - demand relationship. Increasing the money supply may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand and make it difficult for prices to rise. The key to boosting prices is to expand effective demand and smooth the supply - demand cycle [76]. - **Policy measures**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the reasonable recovery of prices [76]. - **PPI situation**: The tail - wagging factor in the first half of the year continued to drag down the performance of PPI, and it will take time for prices to recover [80].

Core Insights - The report highlights that China's consumption rate is significantly lower than the average of 38 countries, with a rate of 37.2% compared to 53.8%, indicating a complex economic and social landscape [1][3] Consumption Tendencies - China's consumption tendency is notably low, with a rate of 62% in 2022, while the average for 38 countries is 92.3%, meaning that for every 100 yuan of disposable income, only 62 yuan is spent [3][4] - High housing prices have historically pressured residents to save for home purchases, with an average of 20% of disposable income allocated to fixed asset investment, compared to only 8.3% in 38 other countries [5] Income Distribution - In 2022, the disposable income of Chinese residents accounted for 60% of GDP, slightly above the 38-country average of 58.2%, but this figure masks underlying issues [6][10] - The initial distribution of income in China is lower than the average of 38 countries, with a ratio of 61.4% compared to 63.2% [10] Secondary Distribution - The net transfer income of residents in China was -1.4% of GDP in 2022, which is better than the average of -5.0% for 38 countries, but this figure raises concerns about social security [11][17] - The tax burden in China is low, with income and property taxes accounting for only 1.2% of GDP, compared to 8.1% in other countries, which diminishes the effectiveness of social security [17] Deep Analysis - The low consumption rate in China is attributed to low consumption tendencies, unequal income distribution, and inadequate social security, which discourage spending [18] - To revitalize consumption, improvements in social security systems, income distribution, and diversification of income sources are necessary [18]

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes the low consumption rate in China compared to 38 countries, indicating that while disposable income is relatively high, the consumption tendency is low, suggesting that the majority of residents have a willingness to consume but lack the ability to do so [1][11][12] - China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, which is 16.6 percentage points lower than the average of 53.8% among the 38 countries [11] - The report emphasizes the need to increase the income of the middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, as the current tax burden on these groups is low, which does not favor consumption [1][12] Fixed Income - Following the recent interest rate cuts, short-term interest rates have decreased while long-term rates have increased, indicating a market adjustment to the new monetary policy [5][17] - The report suggests that the long-term interest rate trend remains downward, but the market has overreacted to the rate cut expectations, requiring time for adjustment [5][17] - The current yield curve indicates a reasonable spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the bond market [5][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in BoRui Pharmaceutical, which is raising 500 million yuan through a private placement, with the controlling shareholder fully subscribing, indicating strong confidence in the company's pipeline [6] - The company is advancing its clinical trials for BGM0504, which shows promising results compared to its competitors, suggesting a potential competitive edge in the market [6] - The report also discusses Kangnong Agriculture's expansion in the Huanghuaihai region, projecting steady growth in profits for 2025 and 2026 due to increased sales [7][8] Communication Industry - Shengke Communication reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on high-end product development and cost optimization, leading to improved gross margins [9] - The company is increasing its R&D investment significantly, which is expected to drive future growth and align with the domestic demand for high-end networking products [9][10] - The report notes that the company has successfully entered the supply chains of major domestic network equipment manufacturers, indicating a strong market position [9]