Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares show strong resilience and stage a phased stabilization and rebound. After the quarterly reports, the A-share market is in a repricing adjustment, with trading sentiment cold and the direction unclear. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The overall market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the bond interest rate fluctuation range will generally decline. The short-term fluctuation range of the active 10-year treasury bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading has strengthened the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - The short-term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 (¥900) and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. - For the steel market, the iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot-rolled coils. For iron ore, with shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore. For coking coal, the local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coke, with the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500. The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600. The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000. The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000. The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips. The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000. The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. - For the chemical market, the PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread. The PTA rebound space is also limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage. The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs. The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5. The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view. The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds. The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs. The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds. The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point. The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see. The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. - In the agricultural product market, due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions in M2601 and RM601 cautiously. The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160. The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan. The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended. The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800. The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity. The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan. The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly. The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained. The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities. The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see. The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500. The polysilicon market has stable spot prices, falling silicon wafers, and a rising futures premium, with the price oscillating between 50000 - 58000. The lithium carbonate market's disk is maintaining a weak oscillation, and the trading logic has changed, with a weak adjustment and the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512: The market has a slight correction after reaching a high and fulfilling expectations, with volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market shows strong resilience and a phased rebound. After the quarterly reports, the market is in a repricing adjustment, with cold trading sentiment and an unclear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - T2512, TF2512, TS2512, TL2512: The overall market sentiment has improved. The bond interest rate fluctuation range is expected to decline. The short - term fluctuation range of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading strengthens the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips; for the cash - and - carry strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2]. Precious Metals - AU2512, AG2512: The short - term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. Shipping Index - EC2512: The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - RB2601: The iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot - rolled coils [2]. - I2601: With shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [2]. - JM2601: The local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - J2601: With the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - CU2512: The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500 [2]. - AO2601: The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - AL2512: The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 [2]. - ZN2512: The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2]. - SN2512: The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [2]. - NI2512: The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 [2]. - SS2512: The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. Chemicals - PX2601: The PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread [2]. - TA2601: The PTA rebound space is limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - PF2512: The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs [2]. - PR2601: The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2]. - EG2601: The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5 [2]. - SH2601: The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view [2]. - V2601: The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - BZ2603: The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs [2]. - EB2511: The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds [2]. - L2601: The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point [2]. - PP2601: The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - MA2601: The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [2]. - BR2512: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. Agricultural Products - M2601, RM601: Due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [2]. - LH2601: The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2]. - C2601: The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2]. - P2601, Y2601: The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan [2]. - SR2601: The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended [2]. - CF2601: The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800 [2]. - JD2512: The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. - AP2601: The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan [2]. - CJ2601: The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly [2]. - SA2601: The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained [2]. - FG2601: The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities [2]. - RU2601: The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Si2601: The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500 [2].

Economic Overview - In September, the 30-year Treasury futures contract fell by 2.28%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.02% and 0.11% respectively. The 2-year contract decreased by 0.05% [1] - The yield on the 30-year active bond increased by 11.2 basis points to 2.13%, while the 10-year yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 1.783%. The 5-year yield decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.59%, with the spread between the 30-year and 10-year bonds widening by nearly 11 basis points [1] - Economic data showed improvement in September, with foreign trade growth remaining resilient despite a slight decline in CPI by 0.3% and PPI by 2.3% [1] Policy Environment - The third quarter entered a fiscal and monetary vacuum, with no anticipated rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, instead relying on monthly reverse repos to support liquidity [2] - The supply of special bonds has nearly reached its limit for the year, shifting market focus to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in the fourth quarter [2] - The bond market is expected to be in a favorable environment in the fourth quarter, with trading sentiment primarily driven by liquidity shifts between assets [2] Market Strategy - The bond market's response to fundamental data has become muted, with trading sentiment dominating the current market rhythm [2] - Recommended strategies include buying the 30-year Treasury futures on dips, focusing on the main contract of the 10-year Treasury, and engaging in cross-product arbitrage between the 5-year and 30-year contracts [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Market Performance - The performance of government bond futures showed divergence, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% to 120.900 yuan, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts fell by 0.01% to 109.140 yuan and 106.280 yuan respectively. The 2-year main contract increased by 0.01% to 102.544 yuan [1] - The yields of major interbank bonds slightly rebounded, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8460%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.40 basis points to 1.6375% [1] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.7 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly decreased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate saw a minor increase [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks remained stable at approximately 1.65% [2] Policy Announcements - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced eight financial policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a trading report database for interbank markets and the promotion of digital RMB internationalization [3] - Other policies include the establishment of a personal credit agency, offshore trade financial service reforms in Shanghai, and the development of free trade offshore [3] - The policies also focus on structural monetary policy innovations and enhancing foreign exchange market products to better manage exchange rate risks [3] Operational Suggestions - The market sentiment remains relatively strong despite the lack of emphasis on monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum, with potential for bond market strength if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4] - It is suggested to consider adjusting long positions during market corrections and to pay attention to the TS2509 contract for potential strategies [4] - The current flat yield curve indicates greater potential for steepening in the medium term, although short-term interest rates have not yet begun to decline [4]