Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Market Performance - The performance of government bond futures showed divergence, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% to 120.900 yuan, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts fell by 0.01% to 109.140 yuan and 106.280 yuan respectively. The 2-year main contract increased by 0.01% to 102.544 yuan [1] - The yields of major interbank bonds slightly rebounded, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8460%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.40 basis points to 1.6375% [1] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.7 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly decreased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate saw a minor increase [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks remained stable at approximately 1.65% [2] Policy Announcements - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced eight financial policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a trading report database for interbank markets and the promotion of digital RMB internationalization [3] - Other policies include the establishment of a personal credit agency, offshore trade financial service reforms in Shanghai, and the development of free trade offshore [3] - The policies also focus on structural monetary policy innovations and enhancing foreign exchange market products to better manage exchange rate risks [3] Operational Suggestions - The market sentiment remains relatively strong despite the lack of emphasis on monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum, with potential for bond market strength if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4] - It is suggested to consider adjusting long positions during market corrections and to pay attention to the TS2509 contract for potential strategies [4] - The current flat yield curve indicates greater potential for steepening in the medium term, although short-term interest rates have not yet begun to decline [4]