Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that short - term market sentiment is cautious, funds leave the market, and the futures price is difficult to have a trend fluctuation. The expected supply gap may be falsified, and the trading logic switches to the weaker reality [6][8]. - For palm oil (P) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". After the sharp fall of palm oil after a sharp rise, although the inventory pressure is not large due to limited production growth and strong exports in Southeast Asia, recent protests in Indonesia and the spill - over effect of international oil prices still affect the futures price, and short - term funds do not stay, so the price will mainly fluctuate widely [7][9]. - For soybean oil 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", and the view reference is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Logic Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [8]. Soybean Oil - **Logic Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Palm Oil - **Logic Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the stronger side, while the medium - term trends are mostly oscillating [5][8][9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term and intraday views are oscillating on the stronger side, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [5]. - **Core Logic**: The U.S. soybean futures prices are oscillating on the stronger side, the South American Brazilian soybean premium is still relatively high, and the sowing weather of new crops in South America and the harvesting weather of U.S. soybeans are attracting market attention. In China, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength continues. The rising procurement cost of imported soybeans in the long - term and the supply gap support the long - term soybean meal futures prices [5]. For Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, medium - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating on the stronger side. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the operating rate of domestic oil mills is at a high level, and the domestic oil and meal market has entered a stage of increasing supply. The market focus is that due to the weakening monthly crushing profit, the procurement enthusiasm of oil mills is not high. The market continues to show a strong oscillating trend supported by cost and supply gap expectations. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil futures prices are boosted by both the external U.S. soybean oil market and the cost of domestic soybean raw materials [8]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, medium - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating on the stronger side. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: Although the previously leading palm oil futures prices have fallen from their highs, the positive expectations of the industrial chain still support the palm oil futures prices. Affected by sentiment fluctuations, the prices mainly fluctuate at high levels with strong support below. In the short term, the high - level oscillation of palm oil futures prices does not change the overall strong pattern [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The trading logic of the domestic soybean market remains unchanged, with the forward supply and cost supporting the strength of soybean meal. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign soybean meal futures prices continues. The palm oil market sentiment weakens, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to a two - year high [6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [6] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Short - term US soybean futures prices are under pressure at the 1000 - cent integer mark. With the growth of US soybean crushing demand, US soybean oil remains strong due to the growth of biofuel demand, while US soybean meal is under pressure from large production. The domestic soybean market's trading logic depends on forward supply and cost, maintaining strength [6]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [8] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Core Logic**: The market sentiment of palm oil continues to weaken. It is expected that the report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board next week will show that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has climbed to a two - year high for five consecutive months because the increase in production exceeds the increase in exports. Short - term palm oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment [8].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for July 24, 2025, covering the price trends, driving logics, and views of different varieties in the agricultural products sector of commodity futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that the domestic market sentiment of soybean meal is high, and the expectation of tightening forward supply continues to heat up, leading to a continuous rise in the price of soybean meal futures. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, and its price is affected by international oil prices, but the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia provides strong support for its price [5][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5]. - **Medium - term View**: Strong [5]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic and foreign markets of soybean meal have shown continuous divergence. The domestic market sentiment is high, and the expectation of tightening forward supply continues to heat up. The rise in soybean meal prices is the result of the resonance of supply expectation difference and cost. The resilience of Brazilian premiums and the expected procurement gap in the fourth quarter are the main drivers. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, and its price hit a new high yesterday. The rebound reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats, so the price is affected by international oil price fluctuations. However, the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia provides strong support for its energy demand, restricting the downside space. In the short term, the price of palm oil will run oscillating strongly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view for most of the agricultural commodity futures in the report is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "strong" in the medium - term, including soybean meal and palm oil [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - related Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks have cooled recently, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas has continuously improved. The price of US soybean futures shows obvious weather - driven fluctuations, with the price center moving down. The trading logic of the domestic soybean market remains unchanged, following the price fluctuations of US soybean futures. Short - term capital loosening intensifies the price fluctuations, causing the futures price to oscillate weakly [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - related Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the slowdown in the decline of international oil prices on the oil market has weakened. After the oil market returns to the fundamentals, the futures prices of the three major oils turn to oscillate weakly, and inventory pressure emerges. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, follows the prices of other neighboring oils and international palm oil futures, and runs oscillating weakly in the short - term [7] 3.3. Other Related Futures Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] - **Soybean Oil 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6] - **Palm 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of domestic meal futures is strengthening. Despite short - term fluctuations, the upward trend remains due to the support of import costs and the existing long - term procurement gap [5]. - The demand expectation of palm oil has weakened, but the oil market is still strong with the rotation of the oil plate. The soybean oil price has led the rise again [7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the public holiday, the US market was closed on Thursday. With the support of import costs and the long - term procurement gap, the long - term supply is pushed up by import costs, and the upward trend remains [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating strongly, and the reference view is also oscillating strongly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: India has cancelled some palm oil orders, leading to a weakening of demand expectations, and the international palm oil futures price is oscillating at a high level. The rotation of the oil plate is evident, and the strength of the oil market persists [7]. 3.3. Other Influencing Factors - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors involve US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of major agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be in a state of shock, with an overall bias towards a weak shock [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the overall stable - to - weak spot prices of soybean meal in North China and Northeast China, the futures price fluctuates narrowly. The spot basis of soybean meal has accelerated its decline to 200, and market sentiment has weakened. With the expected arrival of a large number of imported soybeans gradually materializing, the domestic supply pressure after May is gradually emerging. Due to the low physical inventory of feed enterprises, there is still restocking demand in the later stage. The short - term soybean meal inventory has not yet reached an inflection point, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills is expected to occur in late May. The short - term futures price of soybean meal will maintain a range - bound shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing supply of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness and demand prospects of palm oil will affect its inventory pressure. In China, with the increase in palm oil purchases, the domestic inventory is expected to rise from a low level. The reverse substitution of domestic palm oil has not started. In the oil and fat sector, although palm oil has substitution potential, the spot performance is limited, and there is a lack of obvious driving factors. Without capital attention, the futures price of palm oil will continue to follow the market passively [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel restocking demand, the price is in a state of shock - weak [6].