| 《八》国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月22日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】隔夜国际油价继续上涨,SC10合约日内涨0.55%。昨日英美再次制裁伊朗石油出口,英法德三国威胁 若伊核协议无进展本月将迅速恢复联合国制裁,此外俄乌和平协议谈判亦再限停滞,周四特朗普表示俄乌问题 两周后会知道结果,市场此前定价地缘缓和走向面临修正。我们曾谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间 低位,短期地缘风险仍有不确定性,建议继续持有虚值期权双买策略避险,待波动率放大后再介入中期空单。 【燃料油&低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the recent Israel-Iran conflict, compares it with the two conflicts in 2024, and points out that the intensity of this round of conflict may exceed that of 2024. It also proposes three possible development paths and corresponding coping strategies [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Geopolitical Situation Review - On June 9, Iran rejected the US "Iran Nuclear Deal" and planned to submit its own proposal to the US through Oman [12]. - On June 10, the US and Iran were expected to hold the sixth - round of negotiations over the weekend. Iran warned that if attacked by Israel, it would target Israel's secret nuclear facilities [13]. - On June 11, Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US bases in the Middle East if the negotiation failed [14][15]. - On June 12, US non - essential personnel and their families in Kuwait, Bahrain and the US embassy in Iraq prepared to evacuate. The possibility of the sixth - round of US - Iran negotiations decreased [15]. - On June 13, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, named "Lion's Strength", and declared a national special emergency. Iran reported possible casualties of important leaders and an attack on its nuclear facility [17]. Past Israel - Iran Conflicts Reference - In April 2024, both sides carried out mutual air strikes but avoided attacking nuclear facilities. The oil price rose about 6% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [20][21]. - In October 2024, there were limited air strikes, and both sides remained relatively restrained. The oil price rose about 13% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [26][27]. Future Development Possibilities and Coping Strategies - **Conflict Intensity Comparison**: This conflict may be more intense than those in 2024 due to possible casualties of important Iranian leaders, direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the unclear US attitude. The Brent crude oil has risen about 18% from the low to the high in the past three trading days [28]. - **Possible Development Paths**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: If Iran responds with restraint and the US pressures Israel again, the oil price may have reached its peak [28]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: If Iran retaliates against Israel's nuclear facilities and the US supports Israel's counter - attack, the oil price may reach the range of $85 - 90 [28]. - A full - scale war: If Iran's retaliation is severe and involves Israel and the US, and the US loses control of the situation, the oil price may rise above $100 in the short term [28]. - **Coping Strategies**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: Close all double - bought options and consider selling call options [33]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: Partially close double - bought options and retain the remaining part to monitor the intensity [33]. - A full - scale war: Close put options, increase call option positions or sell put options [33]. - Key observation points include Iran's counter - attack time and intensity, whether the US - Iran negotiation will continue over the weekend, and the US stance [33].